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Observations on the Congressional PPP Poll

by: Dean Barker

Fri Apr 23, 2010 at 16:05:16 PM EDT


My thoughts, fwiw, on the PPP poll just out:

• Where did PPP come up with their matchups?  The Dem primary in CD2 and the GOP primary in CD1 are wide open.

•  Despite ceaseless false attacks from GOP activists, a hostile Union Leader, a swing district that is getting increasingly difficult due to Bay State Republicans who, fooled by Pledge Politics, move up north, a candidate who doesn't take business PAC money, and an electoral cycle that tradition holds should favor the minority party, we have a real chance of keeping in office one of the finest and most genuine public servants.

If you had asked me before the poll what our chances were, you would not have liked my answer.

• I've said this before, but the poll confirms it. Due to the open seat race and the fact that a former six-termer is running in it, Charlie Bass is the de facto incumbent in this race. Therefore it is critical to remind folks of his dismal record in congress and why we voted him out in the first place.

• Swett's numbers are not good. That said, it is difficult to extrapolate on that without PPP having polled Kuster or DeJoie.  I personally think that the average, non-politically obsessed, polled likely voter doesn't know or care about Swett's past with Lieberman campaign, or even why that would today be perceived as a negative in a Democratic primary. So I don't know what's going on.

• Name recognition matters.

Dean Barker :: Observations on the Congressional PPP Poll
Tags: , , (All Tags)
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It gets worse (0.00 / 0)
Katrina Swett: The PPP poll was so bad for Swett that some compassion is warranted. Put yourself in her shoes. You are the "electability" candidate and this poll says that you are getting smashed by Republican Charlie Bass. And, worse, it says that voters aren't really all that hot on Bass, but they definitely don't like you and that dislike was the difference. Oh, and worse than that, these North Carolina pollsters take a quick look at your race and flat out suggest Democrats should nominate someone else.


www.KusterforCongress.com - www.paulhodesforsenate.com

www.nikitsongas.com - www.devalpatrick.com


The truth is in the details (4.00 / 2)
This is one of the very rare times when polls provide cross tabs and they can tell you a lot about what is behind the numbers.

First, the statement "they definitely don't like you and that dislike was the difference."  There is nothing in this poll to support that.  52% of those polled didn't have an opinion of Swett.  Only 31% didn't have an opinion of Bass.  Yet only 21% indicated that they were "undecided" in who to vote for.  

The most likely explanation is that some people interpret this question to mean "if you had to vote today" even though it didn't say that.  People will vote for the names that they know.

Most likely, if this poll had included Kuster and DeJoie, it would have had the same results or worse simply because they aren't as well known yet.

Second, who are the people who make the difference?  Roughly the same percentage of McCain voters and Obama voters said that they were undecided.  

The difference in overall support comes from the fact that 21% of Obama voters said they would vote for Bass compared to 5% of McCain voters who would vote for Swett.  These Obama voters are most likely part of the 52% who don't have an opinion of Swett and are just voting based on name recognition.  These are people who are very open to supporting Obama's agenda, but need some familiarity our congressional candidates.  Only 9% of Obama voters (in the 2nd CD) disapprove of the President's job performance.

It's only April.  These early polls strongly reflect name recognition more than anything.  The same is true for Hodes - he isn't as well known as Ayote in the 1st CD, so he doesn't poll as well overall.


snark alert n/t (0.00 / 0)


Not in the shot

[ Parent ]
Nice to know (0.00 / 0)
. . . that, after several weeks off this site due to a crazy work schedule, you and Jack are still at it.

The bottom line was effectively summarized by Dean:  "Name recognition matters."  Charlie is well known, and our candidates are not -- yet.  Once we start seeing television ads, and the candidates define themselves to voters, these numbers will actually have some relevance.  Until then, the fact that 29% of voters may go to Tea Parties or hate Dick Swett for adopting "Nazi gun control policies" doesn't bother me much.

(I guess I could play the game and lob a few insults at Annie.  But I don't go there, because, unlike some folks, I try to remember that it is in everyone's interest to have a positive, constructive primary with our three strong candidates.  If Annie is our nominee, I will be knocking on doors for her this fall, so I'd much rather focus my guns on Charlie Bass. So there.)


[ Parent ]
I'll focus on this on thing (0.00 / 0)
Once we start seeing television ads, and the candidates define themselves to voters,..

How...2002. :v(

D,
Try all caps. It's a long way to NC.

www.KusterforCongress.com - www.paulhodesforsenate.com

www.nikitsongas.com - www.devalpatrick.com


[ Parent ]
Funny (0.00 / 0)
Katrina Swett received 41% against Bass in the worst Democratic year in modern New Hampshire history, as Jeanne Shaheen was losing the 2nd CD and Mark Fernald was getting clobbered.

Two years later, Paul Hodes received 38% against Bass while Kerry and Lynch won the Granite State.  

It's a good thing we didn't follow your logic two years later, Jack.  We might still be stuck with Charlie.


[ Parent ]
??? (0.00 / 0)
I did not post anything sir. I was calling the snark of the poll snark. You are a little too quick to pull the trigger...maybe rusty?

Not in the shot

[ Parent ]
Is that English? (0.00 / 0)
I was calling the snark of the poll snark

. . . must be a '60s thing.


[ Parent ]
I agree that Dean nailed it in his report on the poll (0.00 / 0)
but don't be a knee jerk and denigrate the 60's ...I remember everything and it was not a joke...many people put their lives and careers on the line because they were  not in favor of dropping jellied fire on people who meant us no harm. If you join the legions who make it a joke, you are showing your callow shallow youthfulness...must be an 80's thing.

Not in the shot

[ Parent ]
Relax, Buddy (0.00 / 0)
It was a joke.  I truly have no idea what that sentence means.

At age 36, I'm starting to appreciate any reference to "youthfulness," even if "callow" and "shallow" are used as adjectives.


[ Parent ]
the snark alert (4.00 / 3)
was about the poll which was skewed by snarky Lieberman comment, and on name rec alone...it may play in certain circles in the press and nationally...but make no mistake if Katrina is the nom I will be knocking on doors for her as you would for Annie. Any of our 3 candidates would be head and shoulders above Charlie.

Not in the shot

[ Parent ]
uprated rater (0.00 / 0)
your unveiled threats and self back patting were unnecessary, and I won't pay any attention to the broad brush slights...just don't turn Dartmouth Dem into Dartmouth Douche

Not in the shot

[ Parent ]
Dartmouth Douche? (4.00 / 2)
That's what we used to call the editor of the Dartmouth Review. . . .  

[ Parent ]
also... (4.00 / 1)
It is worth noting that Annie Kuster is a Dartmouth Dem herself.  

However, I do seem to recall that Dartmouth alums have been known to fight amongst themselves.  The two Hodes-Bass Congressional races matched two adversaries who went to college in Hanover around the same time-- and those were very spirited battles.  


[ Parent ]

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