UNH: CSP All Tied Up, Kuster Within MoE

Yo! What's the buzz at the 100 Club? n/t (0.00 / 0)

www.KusterforCongress.com - www.paulhodesforsenate.com

www.nikitsongas.com - www.devalpatrick.com

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by: Jack Mitchell @ Thu Apr 29, 2010 at 19:28:46 PM CDT

Great energy (4.00 / 3)

The packed house left upbeat and energized. Governor Schweitzer gave an passionate and powerful speech ending with a great plea for energy independence through a green economy.

Governor Lynch impressed the crowd with his forceful speech laying out the truth and going after the lies from NOM. He captivated the room.

Congressman Hodes gave one of his best stem-winders ever. He got the room rocking.

Speaker Norelli spoke for Congresswoman Shea Porter and CSP got two standing ovations!

Fmr State Chair Ned Helms paid tribute to Senators McIntyre and Shaheen which was very well received.

All three congressional candidates gave great three minutes speeches.

Awards went to Rick Trombly and to the husband and wife team of Joan Jacobs and Larry Drake.

House Speaker Norelli and Senate President Larsen did a great job as dinner co-chairs/M.C.s.

Governor Schweitzer auctioned off his special bolero tie clasp for $2500 to the NHDP! And Rick Trombly's husband Ricardo won the 50/50.

The NHDP staff and the dinner committee did a great job.

Have you written a letter to the editor today? Have you donated today? Have you put up signs? Have you made calls? Have you talked to your neighbors?

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by: Ray Buckley @ Thu Apr 29, 2010 at 21:58:08 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Even if she's successful against a well-funded primary effort, (0.00 / 0)

Can Ayotte produce teabag turnout?

--
"Act as if ye have faith and faith shall be given to you." -Aaron Sorkin

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by: Douglas E. Lindner @ Thu Apr 29, 2010 at 19:30:30 PM CDT

Swap "Bass" for "Ayotte" (4.00 / 1)

And you have an even more interesting question, IMO.

birch, finch, beech

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by: Dean Barker @ Thu Apr 29, 2010 at 19:46:15 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I'm thinking Bass won't face equally competent Primary challengers. (0.00 / 0)

--
"Act as if ye have faith and faith shall be given to you." -Aaron Sorkin

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by: Douglas E. Lindner @ Thu Apr 29, 2010 at 19:58:11 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Yes, but it's a tea party year for R's (0.00 / 0)

and they won't come out big for him in the general.

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by: Bill Duncan @ Fri Apr 30, 2010 at 16:27:28 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Six percent MoE? (4.00 / 4)

Seriously. Even the 4.4 on the statewide is still large. Let's see the flaws in this one.

A nine-day window for polling? That's a long span.

512 total respondents, they say... with 462 'likely' voters, 258 First District voters and 254 Second District voters. That's rather small... and then shortly after, a note that 14% have decided on a candidate, 14% are leaning, and 72% undecided, but still, a small sample with few certain respondents is touted as showing a 'lead.' Ayotte has a higher name recognition, which more or less maps to her results.

But here's the telling one:
Democrat: 187
Independent: 72
Republican: 192

Here's what Gallup had to say about the partisan breakdown in New Hampshire (including leaners):
Democrats: 53%
Republicans: 34%

So take this poll with some giant grains of salt. If Republicans have suddenly made a 20% jump among the electorate, then the numbers jibe. If not, then there's rather a bit of uncertainty out there.

IT for John Lynch '04 and NHDP '08 - I'm liking my track record so far!

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by: RealNRH @ Thu Apr 29, 2010 at 19:47:23 PM CDT

To be fair, that data is from right before the 09 August Recess, (0.00 / 0)

Which I would argue marked the end of the Obama honeymoon (although things might still swing back our way).  That was the month when the teabaggers were at all those town halls, and the healthcare fight really got ugly.

Anyway, I hope it hasn't changed but I'd like to see some more recent numbers.  I'm certainly not defending the sampling in the UNH poll.

--
"Act as if ye have faith and faith shall be given to you." -Aaron Sorkin

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by: Douglas E. Lindner @ Thu Apr 29, 2010 at 20:45:28 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

The objective is to encourage Republicans (who are groupies) (4.00 / 1)

and discourage Democrats (who are less persistent).

That's the only sense in which polling is objective; it has a defined purpose in the electoral contest between the parties.

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by: hannah @ Fri Apr 30, 2010 at 08:19:51 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

How far will Bender fall (4.00 / 2)

when voters discover he is not from Futurama?

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by: elwood @ Thu Apr 29, 2010 at 19:54:03 PM CDT

Comment of the week? (0.00 / 0)

--
"Act as if ye have faith and faith shall be given to you." -Aaron Sorkin

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by: Douglas E. Lindner @ Thu Apr 29, 2010 at 19:58:53 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Democrats Will Win This Year (4.00 / 6)

There will be chest pounding Republicans waving this poll around, but it tells me that the Democrats are in good shape.  For a year, Democrats focused on governing, while the Republicans have been doing nothing but obstructing and attacking.  We've been taking punches - but we are still standing. Ayotte can't break 50%; CSP is well within the margin of error, and Bass's favorable ratings have tanked.

The D's have taken the R's best shots. They got nothing left. From here on out - we start winning.  



"When you get to the end of your rope, tie a knot and hang on."  Franklin D. Roosevelt    

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by: Kathy Sullivan 2 @ Thu Apr 29, 2010 at 19:56:12 PM CDT

I'm not sure how you can spin (4.00 / 1)

against Ayotte right now. . . She's got huge leads in every poll, and has broken 50 in one [maybe more].

As a Republican, though, it's scary that Guinta is still behind.

Kuster, to be honest, scares me. She's got a fantastic campaign manager, is running a spectacular grassroots campaign, and seems like a genuinely caring, good person.

And if the GOP nominates a candidate who runs entirely as the "nice lady", another nice lady could really spoil her.

Also, running a former Congressmanin an anti-Washington year could also prove to be catastrophic.

I'm hoping for Giuda.  

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by: Chris Crawford @ Thu Apr 29, 2010 at 22:55:53 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Not spin (4.00 / 1)

I read the cross tabs.
72% of those polled have not made up their minds up.  When one of the candidates is a female, former attorney general appointed by both an R and D governor, that candidate should be much higher, into the mid 50's. No one has gone negative against her, so the fact that she is still not breaking 50 is pretty telling - a lot of uncertainty out there.  

I'm still not sure she makes it out of the primary.



"When you get to the end of your rope, tie a knot and hang on."  Franklin D. Roosevelt    

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by: Kathy Sullivan 2 @ Fri Apr 30, 2010 at 07:46:03 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

just caught a Binnie ad (0.00 / 0)

interesting snippet amongst a series of testimonials of support 'Binnie this Binnie that...Bill Binnie's my friend on Facebook'
Ths is the first time I've heard Facebook friendship used as a political attribute...

Not in the shot

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by: JonnyBBad @ Fri Apr 30, 2010 at 08:10:14 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Yah, like "Bunny77" (0.00 / 0)

or whoever it was, who wanted to be my "friend" on FB once, which is precisely why I don't FB.

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by: GreyMike @ Fri Apr 30, 2010 at 08:16:48 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

IMHO, if it's only (4.00 / 2)

April and people are so sick of you that they want to change the channel every time one of your ads come on, you're in trouble.

The upside that I see for Binnie as the nominee (or downside, depending on your view) is that he is so rich taht he could outspend the DSCC single-handedly in this race.

This is a positive strategy-wise, but is bad for our democracy that a candidate's biggest upside is that he's rich.

It's why we need public financing.  

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by: Chris Crawford @ Fri Apr 30, 2010 at 10:48:22 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

As my wife so eloquently put it when she saw that ad, "what the %&*# does that have to do with being a senator?!?" (0.00 / 0)

America was not built on fear. America was built on courage, on imagination and an unbeatable determination to do the job at hand. -Harry Truman

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by: Peter Sullivan @ Fri Apr 30, 2010 at 13:37:11 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Either way (0.00 / 0)

She is up a ton against Hodes in every single poll, and has broken 50 in another, more reliable poll.

And while you're right that people haven't gone completely negative against her, the other people in the race certainly have taken shots - especially Ovide Lamontagne. He is sending out online mailings attacking her and goes after her at every speaking engagement that he has and every interview that he does.

The primary will be the hardest part for her. After that, the Tea Party people who despise her now will be big supporters simply because of their hatred for Paul Hodes

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by: Chris Crawford @ Fri Apr 30, 2010 at 10:45:50 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Andy Smith has ZERO credibility (0.00 / 0)

At this time four years ago, he refused to include Carol Shea-Porter in his polling because she was not, in his learned opinion, a serious candidate.

He did consider Gary Dodds, International Man of Mystery, to be credible, however.

Smith simply kisses up to the perceived Concord big shots in both major parties.  

America was not built on fear. America was built on courage, on imagination and an unbeatable determination to do the job at hand. -Harry Truman

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by: Peter Sullivan @ Fri Apr 30, 2010 at 13:35:38 PM CDT

& PPP? (0.00 / 0)

MOE was +/- 3.4% for 2nd CD.

www.KusterforCongress.com - www.paulhodesforsenate.com

www.nikitsongas.com - www.devalpatrick.com

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by: Jack Mitchell @ Fri Apr 30, 2010 at 15:44:13 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Second Peter Sullivan's comment (0.00 / 0)

Smith's headline and press release are fundamentally misleading.  He's got his agenda and he's in over his head.  Why not point out that Guinta was 10 points up on CSP in the last UNH poll?  The Boston Globe story was more sensible: http://www.boston.com/news/loc...

However, as Jack (kind of) pointed out, this poll puts Carol in about the same place the PPP poll did. Basically, when these opponents no one knows get good numbers, the message is that we're in a 50/50 district and the generic Republican vote is there for whoever runs against Carol.  So what's new?

At this point in 2008, CSP was in the same position (exactly) against Jeb.

So Carol's in great shape.  In CD2 we're in good shape too.  It'll be about name recognition and turn-out vs. a guy who doesn't know what he thinks.

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by: Bill Duncan @ Fri Apr 30, 2010 at 16:47:49 PM CDT