Prog Blogs, Orgs & Alumni
Betsy Devine
Blue News Tribune (MA)
Democracy for NH
Live Free or Die
Mike Caulfield
Granite State Progress
Seacoast for Change
Susan the Bruce
Campaigns, Et Alia.
Paul Hodes
Carol Shea-Porter
John DeJoie
Ann McLane Kuster
ActBlue Hampshire
NHDP
DCCC
DSCC
DNC
National
Balloon Juice
billmon
Congress Matters
DailyKos
Digby
Hold Fast
Eschaton
FiveThirtyEight
MyDD
The Next Hurrah
Open Left
Senate Guru
Swing State Project
Talking Points Memo
50 State Blog Network
Alabama
Arizona
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
Florida
Georgia
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Missouri
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
New York
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Texas
Utah
Vermont
Virginia
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin
I think Kathy Sullivan came up with the best description of New Hampshire Politics 2008 on WMUR's CloseUp show on Sunday morning. When answering a question about whether New Hampshire is now "blue," she explained that New Hampshire is "Democrat with Democrat-leaning Independents" -- sort of "leaning blue," but not quite there.
Bingo. It's not about colors, it's not about ideology, it's not about party majority (yet), it's not about coattails, it's that Democrats are holding together, and we're picking up lots of Democrat-leaning Independents. You see it by looking toward the bottom of the ballot, where Republicans did pick up some Legislative seats in some parts of the state, and held on to a core of lower-level county positions.
Nashua Telegraph Political Reporter Kevin Landrigan also hit the nail on the head, I think, when he observed that Democrats gained from the momentum of a long election season. He explained that the excitement of volunteers for Democrats was high, and we can see that in the tremendous enthusiasm by supporters of Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama leading up to the New Hampshire First-In-The-Nation Presidential Primary on January 8th. That WAS a long season. In a very real way, Barack Obama and his supporters can thank Hillary Clinton and her supporters for his success. We were all in this together.
Going into 2010, we might not have a year and more of enthusiasm and excitement among volunteers. We're hoping for some great things by Barack Obama, but still I think we have to be concerned with what I call the "pendulum of politics." People often vote for "change," but change is a two-way street -- wait a moment and it happens. Sometimes if you like chicken but you have chicken several times for a week, you'd prefer pizza for your next meal.
Even a victory of 55% to 45%, while it sounds good, isn't secure nor permanent in the world of politics. That margin of victory means that 55 voters of every 100 voted for the winner, while 45 voters of every 100 voted for the lower. If just 6 out of every 100 voters who supported the victor changes his or her mind, the result is different. Sometimes we change our mind as to what we'll have for dinner at a restaurant the moment we sit down and look at the menu.
In other words, we can't assume that New Hampshire Democrats are in a permanent majority position -- far from it. If we want to see continued majorities in the NH House and Senate in 2010, and Democratic Party dominance in other statewide elections, I think Democrats have to act like Democrats these next two years statewide and nationally and do what voters expect us to do.
The dialogue of the next several months and the good part of the next two years will be for us to define what "Democrats acting like Democrats" means. I think nationally it means having some real health care, being sure we're essentially out of Iraq, addressing poverty in ways we haven't begun, and having an economy on the rebound. Statewide, it's solving educational inequalities, getting that dropout rate way down, and opening the dialogue about fairer taxation to fund education -- not passing a new tax, but being brave enough to talk about our options, and how to lower property taxes.
By the way, am I the only one who has wondered why Kathy Sullivan hasn't run for a political office yet, and that it's about time she does?
Senator Obama believes healthcare is a right. Senator McCain described healthcare as a "responsibility" (without clarifying whose responsibility it is!). Senator McCain said he would give each family a $5,000 tax cut to pay for healthcare insurance. How far does the $5,000 go? Here are the facts:
• After paying a monthly premium of approximately $ 650-800, depending on age, for a basic HMO in-network service, a couple must also pay 20% co-insurance for diagnostic X-ray, lab tests, oxygen and equipment, prosthetic devices, anesthesia and ambulatory care.
• They will also pay a $4,000 annual deductible, $250 per emergency room visit, $25 per doctor visit, and an annual deductible of $500 and co-pay of $15-$50 for prescription drugs.
• The costs of annual check-ups and routine required exams couldn't be deducted from the $4,000 deductible.
The above example of a basic HMO plan is similar for all healthcare plans. The couple could end up paying $12.000.00 plus a year, just to have basic health insurance but they would also incur additional costs, for example when they go out of network. Check out these added costs by going to this link:
http://www.bluecrossma.com/com...
How many people can afford Senator McCain's healthcare plan? Very few! Basic HMO coverage will cost a couple $7,800-$9,000 per year for premiums alone. Add to this is the required $4,000.00 deductible. Yes, insurance companies provide services with better coverage without deductibles, but the premiums range from $1,550 - $1,850 per month, $18,000-22,000 per year per couple depending on age. That is way above the annual $5,000 tax reduction you would be offered by Senator McCain.
To rub salt into the wound, for those who currently have employer-funded health benefits, Senator McCain says he is going to make you pay taxes on those benefits. What he gives with one hand (as inadequate a sum as that is) he plans to take with the other! Senator Obama would not tax these benefits.
Senator Obama wants you to keep your current health insurance if you are happy with it. If you do not have health insurance, he will provide you with the same healthcare plan he and Senator McCain have as Senators.
If you have healthcare insurance, you are already paying a lot. Senator Obama wants you to pay less. He will bring together all stakeholders, including insurance companies, to bring about reductions in overall healthcare costs.
We all get sick sometimes. If you do not have health insurance you will probably need to rely on emergency room services. Serious illnesses and expensive medical procedures can be minimized for those with access to preventive healthcare services available to those with healthcare insurance. Senator McCain's plan may be fine for you if you can afford it. But the last thing you need when you are sick is to have to worry about how to pay for treatment. And the last thing you need is to have to avoid visiting doctors when you are sick because you cannot afford it. The last thing you need to hear is "sorry, we could treat you but you do not have healthcare insurance". This is very cruel. Our system, unlike the healthcare systems established by our OECD partners, rewards you when you are healthy but punishes you when you are sick. Senator Obama does not want to punish you when you are sick.
I admit to being a bit worried for a while. For months I've been pulling for Hillary Clinton -- who I supported in the primary season -- to be our nominee for Vice President. Although I like Joe Biden, Barack Obama's eventual choice, I thought Hillary Clinton would help solidify the Democratic ticket and bring renewed enthusiam to the race, as well as make a great President.
Then John McCain announced his choice, and we saw a dozen days of Palinmania. The national media, even those usual critical-thinkers, were building her into the Great American Hunter who would take on Washington bad-doers the way she chases moose and caribou from one Alaskian border to the other.
For months I had been offering my "estimates" as to how Democrats would do in November, and they seemed in jeapody with John McCain's VP choice.
But we should never underestimate the ability of most American voters to see through puff and fluff, and to "get it" when a politician is playing politics with them. People across the board seem to be realizing now that Sarah Palin isn't the second coming of the American dream.
She's a politician who happens to use power to punish. She doesn't believe in Global Warming, following instead the oil industry's motto of "don't worry, be happy." She thinks the Earth is 6,000 years old, give or take a few months. She thinks gays and lesbians can be "cured" of our evil ways. She was for the "bridge to nowhere" before she was against it, then took the money anyway for other goodies she wanted. She's anti-choice, and wants to lock up doctors who provide such services and prosecute those promoting them.
Of course, this isn't over. We have a bit over six weeks coming of perhaps the most amazing politics ever in the history of our nation, with several debates, hundreds of different ads, October surprises -- perhaps several of them -- and who knows how many polls. But I think the McSame-Failin' ticket is getting the attention it really deserves, and people are saying no way.
Continues below break...some estimates for November 4th:
I was in a business that I frequent here in town the other day and the owner asked me about what I thought about the presidential race.
That question has generally bugged me considering there are so many other races on the ballot in November, and was part of the reason why i'm blogging about what it's like to be running a campaign at the bottom of the ticket, but I figured i'd tell him what I really thought and tell him that it's only on the periphery of my focus right now and that I was focusing on myself.
He replied to me "Good, in economics there are things we can control, and things we can't control. It's best just to worry about the things we can control and forget about all the rest."
Barack Obama wasn't going to put Hillary Clinton as the VP just because somebody might have asked him out of fear that the Hillary voters weren't going to show up at the polls for me. Nor should we fear the zombie narrative that these tidal shifts are going to be the deciding factor, and i'm talking to Republicans too on that. This will be a Democratic year, generic Democrats are consistently polling 5 to 10 points better than their generic Republican rivals, but the races will be decided on the ground everywhere, regardless of anything else. Whoever works harder will win.
I may be wrong, but if I am, there's nothing I can do about it, so why worry about the things out of our control? I am working hard and that's all that I can control.
Many months ago, as a then strong supporter of Hillary Clinton, I urged her campaign to "Let Hillary Be Hillary." I thought a lot of her campaign during the four or five months before Iowa and New Hampshire was being mismanaged on the national level, short-circuiting her chances to be President.
The past is past. That was then, now is now. The primary season is over.
Her speech at the Democratic National Convention tonight showed vintage Hillary Clinton -- only better than ever. Obviously, during the past couple of months she put her Penn aside, cleared her head of some of her other "message managers," and restored all that she had been.
This woman should be President, and certainly has a chance in eight years.
I remain a solid supporter of Hillary Clinton, but I'm also excited about Barack Obama. He will be President, with Hillary's help and his excellent choice of Joe Biden, and I'm confident he will do great things.
Barack Obama will get the United States out of Iraq, he'll run a smart war on terrorism, he'll restore our foreign alliances, and he'll work with Ted Kennedy and Hillary Clinton to create health care for all of us. As a plus, he'll focus on renewing our national commitment to quality education, create new independent energy policies, and reform our economy so that working men and women can make a living.
Lives and futures are at stake in this election, and that's why all of us who supported Hillary Clinton now need to vote for Barack Obama. He'll be a great President. And Hillary Clinton will someday be too.
Several political blogs are reporting that Senator Obama is currently meeting with aides who he has tasked with vetting the vice presidential nominees.
NBC News reports Obama was at veep vetter Eric Holder's office in DC for the second day in a row.
According to those reports, Kaine, Bayh, Sebelius and Biden are on the short list with Kaine perhaps the leading contender.
Interesting tidbits: Kaine, Obama, and their wives all attended Harvard Law School. Both Kaine's and Obama's mothers were born in El Dorado, Kansas.
Kaine has reportedly cancelled an appearance for which he was scheduled tomorrow.
From Sen. Clinton's statement on FISA (boldface mine):
"While this legislation does strengthen oversight of the administration's surveillance activities over previous drafts, in many respects, the oversight in the bill continues to come up short. For instance, while the bill nominally calls for increased oversight by the FISA Court, its ability to serve as a meaningful check on the President's power is debatable. The clearest example of this is the limited power given to the FISA Court to review the government's targeting and minimization procedures.
"But the legislation has other significant shortcomings. The legislation also makes no meaningful change to the immunity provisions. There is little disagreement that the legislation effectively grants retroactive immunity to the telecommunications companies. In my judgment, immunity under these circumstances has the practical effect of shutting down a critical avenue for holding the administration accountable for its conduct. It is precisely why I have supported efforts in the Senate to strip the bill of these provisions, both today and during previous debates on this subject. Unfortunately, these efforts have been unsuccessful.
"What is more, even as we considered this legislation, the administration refused to allow the overwhelming majority of Senators to examine the warrantless wiretapping program. This made it exceedingly difficult for those Senators who are not on the Intelligence and Judiciary Committees to assess the need for the operational details of the legislation, and whether greater protections are necessary. The same can be said for an assessment of the telecom immunity provisions. On an issue of such tremendous importance to our citizens - and in particular to New Yorkers - all Senators should have been entitled to receive briefings that would have enabled them to make an informed decision about the merits of this legislation. I cannot support this legislation when we know neither the nature of the surveillance activities authorized nor the role played by telecommunications companies granted immunity.
From what I understand, Hillary Clinton still has some campaign debt left to take care of.
Tonight, when I get a chance to sit down and breathe, I'm going to give her some money as a direct response to the leadership she showed on this FISA vote. It will be my first donation to her campaign. Who's with me?
Friday was one of those days that remind me that all the time, aggravation and heartbreak of politics is worth every ounce of effort we put into it. That's what ran through my mind as I took my seat today in beautiful Unity NH. It's all worth it.
To see Carol Shea-Porter and Paul Hodes give the introductory speeches in a New Hampshire field on a Summer day makes it all worth it. When Governor Lynch spoke --it was all worth it.
In the name of the Granite State and the United States of America--it's all worth it!
Then Jeanne Shaheen spoke to a widely enthusiastic crowd. I'll be writing much more about her campaign. She has a ton of momentum and Democrats are loving it. The Shaheen campaign seems to be doing everything right.
Finally, the introduction we were all waiting for fell to Ken Hall, the "honorary" mayor of Unity. That was fitting - all politics is local.
What a moment for New Hampshire and the nation. Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton chose the perfect location to bring the Democratic party together. Someone - perhaps it was Hillary - mentioned that maybe there was some divine intervention afoot. I mean Barack and Hillary both received 107 votes last January in Unity. What an amazing and symbolic coincidence. How could they pass up the opportunity to return?
The crowd loved it. This event was yet another shot in the arm for New Hampshire Democrats. I'm sure everyone present made a little personal vow to work just a little harder between now and November.
We've come a long way from our frigid primary. The political climate has changed as much as the weather. Today sealed the deal.
So thank you to the kind folks in Unity.
Now its time for Democrats all across New Hampshire to work like we've never worked before to send Barack Obama to the White House.
Update by Laura: Also see NH Ex-pat's diary about the event.
So, today, I got up ridiculously early (six, but ridiculously early for a college kid, okay, =P) to go pick up my girlfriend in Manchester and drive an hour to Sunapee to take a shuttle to Unity. What followed was one of the best experiences of my life. Report and pics below the fold!
Normally I don't pimp candidate rallies on the front page, but the singularity of the event, and the people involved, and the classic location... I have to say, I think this qualifies as a Genuine Big Deal. The fact that it's happening like twenty minutes away from me in one of the most remote towns of west central New Hampshire has kept me from realizing it until now, I think (we're so used to having candidates in our living rooms during the primary, etc...).
Unite for Change Rally
with Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton
Unity Elementary School
864 Second NH Turnpike
Unity, NH 03773
Friday, June 27th
Shuttle service begins at 10:00 a.m.
Gates Open at 11:00 a.m.
There is NO ON-SITE PARKING. Members of the public must take shuttles provided by the campaign to access the event. Shuttle service is first-come, first-served.
Shuttles begin running at 10:00 a.m. Tickets are REQUIRED to ride the shuttles.
Her decision came after Democratic members of Congress urged her Wednesday to leave the race and allow the party to coalesce around Mr. Obama.
For those of you who aren't political junkies - "suspending" a campaign is a fairly standard technicality that allows a candidate to continue to raise money (in this case, quite important, considering the debt accrued). It's not a tin-foil plot to keep a race alive.
I suspect that, just as when Edwards left the race, her absence will leave a real void. I'm so not into identity politics, but on Friday it'll be, as it has been for a couple centuries and change, two dudes wrangling for POTUS.
I'd like to thank Senator Clinton for two things in particular: 1) giving a great and priceless gift, i.e., her shoulders to stand on, to someone in the future who will one day be our first female president, and 2) shining a light on our health care crisis so brightly that it no longer can be ignored as a mission-critical policy issue.
From its kickoff TH meeting in Berlin, NH in February, 2007 to the present day, HRC's campaign has been, apparently by design, informed by its sizzle, not its steak, process over policy, script and pandering over leadership. I made this specific point to Gen. Wes Clark during a small gathering of local activists in North Conway, NH in December, 2007 in which he was pitching Senator Clinton's candidacy. He agreed with my observation but defended her "cautious" approach as necessary to avoid providing the "right-wing propaganda machine" with material.
Just when I thought Sen. Clinton was warming to the idea of unifying the party when the hopes for her winning the nomination now seem rather untenable, just when I was warming up to her as a unifier for the party in the general election, Sen. Clinton has decided to put out a most scurrilous remark that should send chills down the spines of ALL Americans- whether Democrat or Republican. Senator Clinton's insinuation, in the clip provided, shows her pronouncing the Democratic nomination primary process not over because we should harken back to 1968 when Bobby Kennedy was assassinated in Los Angeles. So guess what folks, if Sen. Clinton's little hypothetical historical parallel is true, history might repeat itself!
This is not only alarming but truly disturbing coming from someone who claims that she will support the nominee of the party while at the same time making deplorable comments that sink below the level that any politician in America- Democrat or Republican- should ever make. I believe that Sen. Clinton should publicly apologize for such an egregious historical comparison and renew her support for unifying the party. Whether she truly meant to be so tasteless in her comments, I do not know, but I think the very least she can do is to make a public clarification that her statement was not meant to be a disparagement of Barack Obama and that she apologize for having made such an insinuation.
Then in the afternoon Senator Clinton made something unequivocally clear on a major news network:
"Anybody who has ever voted for me or voted for Barack has much more in common in terms of what we want to see happen in our country and in the world with the other than they do with John McCain," Clinton said on CNN's "The Situation Room."
"I'm going to work my heart out for whoever our nominee is. Obviously, I'm still hoping to be that nominee, but I'm going to do everything I can to make sure that anyone who supported me ... understands what a grave error it would be not to vote for Sen. Obama."
In the evening came a surprise endorsement of John Edwards for our increasingly presumptive nominee.
And here in New Hampshire, we are apparently on track to break attendance records for the state Democratic party convention - on the year after the presidential candidates came.
Bush sacrificed more than golf (and lives and treasure and national reputation) when he invaded Iraq. He sacrificed his party.
You've got to let me know...DiStaso wrote about it yesterday, and a Hampster or two opined on Hillary's course from here to the convention. I think Barack's position is correct...Hillary will be a formidable ally in his quest for the Presidency and only she can determine the best way to work this out. Whatever goes on behind the scenes should be done in light of the respect and support Sen. Clinton has in New York and around the country. She and Bill will work harder than anyone to get the Democrats back in the White House.
Note Hodes sticking it to Michigan and Florida for wanting to break the rules.
"NH pols differ on Clinton staying in race for President"
http://www.unionleader.com/art...
For the purpose of this diary, we assume that Hillary gets nominated, which should offend nobody because there's an Obama version.
Please use this thread to discuss who you'd like to and expect to see Hillary Clinton choose for a running mate if she's nominated, but not to discuss whether or not she is likely to be nominated--we have plenty of other threads for that.
(Not a local New Hampshire story, but something we should all be disgusted at, whichever candidate we support - promoted by Laura Clawson)
I just got back from a vacation, and I had a layover in Washington, DC. Across from where I sat lay the CNBC store, proudly sporting that NBC peacock we've come to know so well.
I wandered over to grab a newspaper or a magazine, and this is what I found in the center of the store, facing outward from the cash register.
Did you get it? Did you get the joke? Because strong women hate penises. Strong women want to "bust men's balls" because let's face it, they're envious of our balls. They are all, you know, menopausal and uptight. And we dudes, we're just hanging out, being cool, when they come around cracking our nuts...
Because, you know, male power is natural, but female power is a pathology. Always.
That's why a major news outlet can sell a novelty item where a female presidential candidate cracks nuts with her "stainless steel thighs".
Is there some way to apply pressure to CNBC to stop selling this misogynist crap? If you have any ideas, leave them in the comments.
If New Hampshire Democratic Party Chair Ray Buckley pulls off a success with the planned Monday unity news conference, where leaders of the Presidential campaigns are pledging to pull together their efforts for a Democratic victory in November, he'll be worth his weight in gold. Well, at least in votes.
The ONLY way Republicans can win this November, here and elsewhere, will be to divide the Democrats. It's not quite so simple, but IF Democrats in New Hampshire and most states can just get out the voters in November who had voted for Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, and other Democratic Presidential candidates from the primaries and caucuses held earlier this year, our nominee -- whomever it is -- wins. Plus our candidates will get their share of Independents and Republicans who share our enthusiasm for issues and change.
And if anything the Presidential primary season has taught us this cycle, it is that polls done well ahead of an election don't reflect anything than just a gut opinion and quick snapshot of voters' attitude. That's all. McCain won't win here. Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton will -- IF Democrats turn out.
This Democratic unity news conference of New Hampshire Democrats should serve as a model for all the other states to bring together the leaders and activists of our candidates to commit to victory. If it works, Republican candidates for all offices this November should be afraid. Very afraid.
There should be no reason for Democratic Party disunity this November when we consider the devastation that a Bush/Cheney third term could bring to our nation. A change of direction in our nation is needed, and Democratic unity in November is all about change.
