The McSame-Failin' Ticket Is Getting The Attention It Really Deserves

by: Rep. Jim Splaine

Sat Sep 20, 2008 at 11:36:03 AM EDT

Then John McCain announced his choice, and we saw a dozen days of Palinmania.  The national media, even those usual critical-thinkers, were building her into the Great American Hunter who would take on Washington bad-doers the way she chases moose and caribou from one Alaskian border to the other.  

For months I had been offering my "estimates" as to how Democrats would do in November, and they seemed in jeapody with John McCain's VP choice.  

But we should never underestimate the ability of most American voters to see through puff and fluff, and to "get it" when a politician is playing politics with them.  People across the board seem to be realizing now that Sarah Palin isn't the second coming of the American dream.

She's a politician who happens to use power to punish.  She doesn't believe in Global Warming, following instead the oil industry's motto of "don't worry, be happy."  She thinks the Earth is 6,000 years old, give or take a few months.  She thinks gays and lesbians can be "cured" of our evil ways.  She was for the "bridge to nowhere" before she was against it, then took the money anyway for other goodies she wanted.  She's anti-choice, and wants to lock up doctors who provide such services and prosecute those promoting them.

Of course, this isn't over.  We have a bit over six weeks coming of perhaps the most amazing politics ever in the history of our nation, with several debates, hundreds of different ads, October surprises -- perhaps several of them -- and who knows how many polls.  But I think the McSame-Failin' ticket is getting the attention it really deserves, and people are saying no way.

Continues below break...some estimates for November 4th:

"Here in New Hampshire, Democrats have an excellent chance to have 3 of the 5 Governor's Councilors elected, perhaps even 4.  The State Senate well could result in 14 Democrats out of 24, possibly even 15 or 16.   Democrats in the NH House could pick up 70 seats - - 70 seats - - giving them a margin of 20 or so and allow them to elect the first Democrat House Speaker in nearly a Century.  

My betting right now would go with both Carol Shea-Porter and Paul Hodes winning their races.  The US House could see a Democrat House Speaker and a Democrat majority in January.  I'm not quite so sure about the US Senate, but the Democrats could come within one or two seats there of having a majority."

I might have got lucky, but I wasn't just guessing.  The "enthusiasm level" can't be easily measured by polls, and there was a quake happening that year.  I think it will happen again in 2008.  

For this year, I'll stick with my expectations that I came up with about 4 months ago in my Blogs.  Governor John Lynch wins, Jeanne Shaheen wins, Carol Shea-Porter and Paul Hodes win, Barack Obama wins New Hampshire by 7 percent, we have 3 Democratic Governor's Councilors, 18 Democratic State Senators, and a House with 262 Democrats.  I arrived at those projections some months ago by taking the 2006 votes throughout the state, and adding a percentage for a Presidential election-year vote turnout, adding a percentage especially to Democratic candidates because of the amazing turnout in the January 8th New Hampshire First-In-The-Nation Presidential Primary, then adding a percentage especially to Democratic candidates based on enthusiasm for our candidates and the intensity of the issues that will encourage people to turn out in extraordinary numbers.

Maybe that's a bit of too much optimism, but perhaps not.  Those are the results we can see in the headlines of newspapers on Wednesday, November 5th if we do what needs to be done.

I don't see that intensity or enthusiasm matched on the Republican side -- it looked for a bit that it might happen, but their Palin experiment is Failin'.  I think the issues of the need to get our brave troops out of Iraq, the need for health care access for all, the need for oil-free energy development, and the way Republicans in Washington have messed up the economy being the  motivating factors in getting people to the polls on November 4th -- to vote Democrat.  

But to continue the momentum in 2010, we'll have only two years to deliver and show we've earned it.  Democrats will have to act like Democrats -- in New Hampshire and in Washington.  I have a feeling we will.