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Shea-Porter told Roll Call last week that she is considering another bid. And the New Hampshire Democratic Party said Kuster has already decided to run again.
435 races to rank, and First Read puts little ol CD2 of New Hampshire in the number two slot of top Dem pickup opportunities:
Here's a stab at a potential Top 20 House Dem target list with the following criteria: low GOP winning number, closeness of the race, presidential district leanings/tightness, and the intangible quality of incumbent.
Poor Charlie hasn't even been sworn in yet to officially break his Contract with America pledge to serve only six terms.
To be fair, the seventh-termer-elect did say he wanted to get in and get out. So now it looks like he'll get his chance.
Former Rep. Charlie Bass is said to be a likely candidate for the Energy and Commerce Committee when he returns to Congress to represent New Hampshire's 2nd District -- and industry lobbyists are licking their chops.
Given his experience, "I'm pretty sure he has the best case to get back on the Committee," said an industry lobbyist, who also remembered Bass to be a "strong supporter of industry," and "skeptical of net neutrality."
In his previous tenure in Congress, Bass spent six years on the House Energy and Commerce Committee, including three years on the Communications subcommittee.
This election cycle, Bass collected over $36,000 in campaign contributions from the energy industry including the Nuclear Energy Institute, the American Gas Association and the Amercian Electric Power PAC. He received another $34,000 from the communications and electronics industry including donations from AT&T, DirectTV, and Verizon.
This is a bit of a surprise. PCCC commissioned PPP to do a late poll of NH-02.
Out of 810 respondents (that's a much higher sample than we have been accustomed to from UNH, btw) Annie Kuster beats Charlie Bass 47% to 45%.
(The PCCC did the poll to compare Kuster numbers with a hypothetical Swett/Bass matchup, in order to counter the inevitable Third Way nonsense vapors that will spill out into punditland after the election. But I have zero interest in that, and frankly find a comparison with someone who is has been out of the race for a month and a half to the current nominee to be less than useful.)
The main reason I point this out is that, as has been the case for a while, as JonnyB said best: NH-02 LEANS TURNOUT.
So contact every last voter you know before the polls close!
Tonight, the Super Secret Project, best known for their song "Granite State of Mind" is going to be holding a concert/rally for Annie Kuster beginning at Keene State at 9:30pm in the student center! This event is free and open to the public.
Instead of the usual .pdf, Pindell has it behind a paywall, which is kind of a bummer. (FWIW, I will paste the email announcement of the poll in full below the fold.)
CD1:
Carol Shea-Porter: 39%
Frank Guinta: 46%
Other: 5%
Undecided: 12%
Guinta remains under 50%, undecideds/"others" are high, Carol is closing the gap, and, per Pindell, among independent/undeclared voters, "Two weeks ago Shea-Porter trailed by 10 to her Republican opponent Frank Guinta, now she trails by just 1 percentage point."
In this poll, only 36 respondents identified as between 18 to 34 years of age. 167 are identified as Democrats, 53 as independents, and 199 as Republicans.
CD2:
Annie Kuster: 43%
Charlie Bass: 40%
Other: 6%
Undecided: 11%
In this poll, only 32 respondents identified as between 18 to 34 years of age. 194 are identified as Democrats, 60 as independents, and 178 as Republicans.
Spread the word - we can and we will keep these two house seats so long as we empty the tank and give it everything we have. Leave no stone unturned. Call your neighbors and friends. Get your neighbors and friends to call their neighbors and friends. Get out that vote!
GOTV! GOTV! GOTV! GOTV! GOTV! GOTV! GOTV! GOTV! GOTV! GOTV!
Call NHDP at 603-225-6899 to find out how to help.
Call the Shea-Porter campaign at 603-531-9653 to find out how to help.
Call the Kuster campaign at 603-230-2415 to find out how to help. GOTV! GOTV! GOTV! GOTV! GOTV! GOTV! GOTV! GOTV! GOTV! GOTV!
I can't wait to see how Charlie tries to trumpet this stinker:
Bass for Congress - with an asterisk
...Because it's not easy to endorse a candidate's bid to return to Washington when there are some serious ethical questions about his conduct on the way out.
...Given an opportunity to explain himself during Tuesday night's WMUR-TV debate at Saint Anselm College, a testy Bass dismissed the issue as "ridiculous," then lashed out at those who would besmirch the company's reputation.
We don't believe the issue is "ridiculous." In fact, we wish he had taken that opportunity in front of a statewide TV audience to lay out a detailed step-by-step explanation of what he did and when, clearing the air once and for all.
...we once again endorse Bass for Congress - albeit without the same level of conviction and enthusiasm as in his previous campaigns.
Oh, and the Telegraph? When you have found your mind again, let us know.
Adding: As a teacher, I am now and again involved in the writing of college recommendations. This is what we in the trade call "damning with faint praise." But it's not good practice, because it's really bad for the recipient of the support. If I can't in good faith endorse someone, I advise him or her to look elsewhere for a recommendation. In contrast, poor Charlie's stuck forever with this bellyflop of an endorsement.
When the candidates had a chance to ask each other questions, Annie Kuster zeroed in on Charlie Bass' full-throated suppport of the Tea Party. You know the famous line: "Their agenda is exactly is exactly the same as mine."
This was a smart move by Annie, since this is by far the highest profile media event of the season for them, with the potential to reach broad swaths of the general electorate, including the key third of independent voters.
Charlie's response was a surprise to me: he wholly and enthusiastically owned up to his march to the hard right. Compare that, e.g., to his series of "I'm a independent - really!" general election ads from 2006.
When you take the biggest, last opportunity you have to reach out to everyone, and use it instead to stoke the voters who should already be in your pocket, this is a huge tell.
Charlie Bass has a significant GOP base problem.
His response to which only aggravates his other problem - former supporters going over to Annie, which will be the highlight of today's Team Kuster day.
And also as before, I'm gonna deposit my insta-reax via some twitterings, but don't let that stop you from registering your cheers and laments here.
Two more things:
1) Tomorrow look for a press conference from Annie's campaign about the former Bass supporters who have joined our cause.
2) Click here for critical GOTV opportunities. I noticed today on 538 that Nate Silver has this as the ONLY House race in the country split evenly at 50%-50%. As JonnyB said best, NH-02 leans turnout. So every bit of GOTV that you can do matters.
I am planning to vote on Tuesday, November 2nd. I always vote. This year, more than usual, I am thinking about the women who made it possible for me to exercise such a basic right. Less than a century ago, suffragettes were imprisoned, abused and beaten in their campaign to make sure women were considered autonomous individuals capable of self determination.
Given that legacy, the only possibility is that I vote for a Senate candidate like Paul Hodes, who unlike his opponent, is pro-choice. It is only possible that I vote for a candidate for Representative to Congress like Ann Kuster whose long history of support for women, children and working families in New Hampshire clearly distinguishes her from her opponent, a long time Bush ally. The only candidate I could possibly support for State Senate is Deb Reynolds, who has demonstrated her commitment to the people of New Hampshire and has worked for equal rights for all of us. I can only vote for State Representatives Jim Aguiar and Carol Friedrich who have taken the same positions on choice, privacy and civil rights.
Our previous roster of local NH congresspersons held many of these same positions on choice and privacy, but such Republicans are no longer welcome in their party. Now a slate of tea party endorsed or, by their own admission, tea party loving candidates for our state and national legislatures want New Hampshire voters to believe that they have our best interests in mind. I am not fooled. They are beholden to big business and corporate interests. They are not concerned with my civil rights, those of my daughter, or those of any of us. For all their complaining about big government, it is the Republicans who want to legislate personal, private matters while allowing multi-million dollar business interests to do as they please at our expense.
It is in honor of the legacy of those women who gained for American women the right to vote, through years of hard work and grave bodily hardship, that I vote. And when I do, I will only vote for those candidates who respect me as an individual. I will only support the Democratic candidates who, in this day and age, are the only ones who have shown a commitment to my personal right to make decisions about my life and body and my daughter's right to make decisions about hers.
[Jennifer Horn] also warned "if we are not happy with our representation, we will run again" (emphasis on 'we') and will "put a true conservative in this seat."
And this doesn't tell you that we need to do everything we can to capitalize on the other side's collective "meh" about Charlie, I don't know what will. From the right-wing diarist:
Some feel that we should vote for Charlie Bass, simply because he won the Party primary; some will hold their nose as they vote for him, but are not likely to provide any campaign support; some are considering a protest write-in; others prefer to do nothing.
Fired up, ready to... do nothing.
Well, her cheerleaders over at Granite Grok have sworn off Charlie Bass, this cycle. Apparently hoping for redder pastures, two years from now.
Thanks to the Souhegan High School's Ethics Class for having Charlie to speak today!
The world of Charlie Bass, Congress edition:
The late-campaign airing of allegations of ethical misconduct in the race for an open New Hampshire House seat could produce the rare spectacle of a member of Congress facing an ethics investigation shortly after entering office.
Remember, whether he sleazily purchased the stock three minutes after leaving office or not is not the issue. There's the lying about the nepotistic influence peddling as well.
I said this before about the pay raise ad, but it bears repeating: pairing the truth about Bass' record up front with a positive message at the end about Annie's priorities is in my view incredibly effective TeeVee.
Full release from Team Kuster below the fold, including a fact sheet on Bass' outsourcing votes and Annie's plan.
Charlie Bass claims letting the Bush-era tax cuts expire for high income households would hurt small businesses. Bass is wrong.
Bass defended extending the tax cuts for high-income households last Friday during an appearance on New Hampshire Public Radio.
“I think there is data … that indicates there are a significant number of small businesses in New Hampshire, lots of small businesses, that would be affected by this,” Bass said.
William G. Gale, Brookings Institution senior fellow and co-director of the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center:
If, as proposed, the Bush tax cuts are allowed to expire for the highest earners, the vast majority of small businesses will be unaffected. Less than 2 percent of tax returns reporting small-business income are filed by taxpayers in the top two income brackets.
If the objective is to help small businesses, continuing the Bush tax cuts on high-income taxpayers isn't the way to go -- it would miss more than 98 percent of small-business owners and would primarily help people who don't make most of their money off those businesses.
