UNH Poll: Marchand, Swett within 4% of Sununu, with Shaheen Trouncing Again

by: Dean Barker

Thu Jul 19, 2007 at 19:20:05 PM EDT

I'll add more to this when I've had a better chance to look, but the long and short of it? Sununu is is some serious trouble.  I don't think there's another incumbent Republican senator anywhere this vulnerable.

Marchand and Swett have got to be happy about this one.  Four points behind an incumbent with a well known name and daddy, while name rec for their part is still minimal? And Shaheen, for the third straight time, trouncing John E.?  Sweet.

Shaheen 54 - 38 Sununu
Marchand 38 - 42 Sununu
Swett 39 - 43 Sununu
Buckey 28 - 44 Sununu

"Obviously, there's a national mood out there right now that is not helpful for Republicans, but it's nothing to do with John Sununu's performance," said Fergus Cullen, chairman of the state Republican Party.

Shaheen Beats Sununu in Poll, 56 to 34 Percent (and several other headlines)

by: Mike Caulfield

Sat Jul 14, 2007 at 09:34:18 AM EDT

This is such a story. You should go and get yourself a cup of coffee and read it through top to bottom.

But for the time-challenged, here are some headlines I came up with for this post.

Shaheen Pummels Sununu in Poll

From the Monitor:

A new Monitor poll has Shaheen, a Democrat, handily beating Sununu, a Republican, 56 percent to 34 percent.

Those are amazing figures, and I'm going to guess probably the biggest thrashing cued up for an incumbent Senator in 2008. I'll have to hit the books, but it's hard to think of a precedent against an incumbent where the spread was of that magnitude. To the people on here from Draft Shaheen, let me be very clear: I see the attraction, and, yeah, I'm excited.

Sununu Polls under 50% against unknowns

From the Monitor:

But paired against any of the Democrats currently in the race to unseat him, Sununu wins, holding a 46 percent share while the challengers' support ranges from 24 to 32 percent.

The Monitor presents this as good news for Sununu -- that if Shaheen doesn't jump in, he may dodge the bullet.

Far from it. Sununu is polling under 50% against unknowns. Not good, and from the little I know about reading these things, a decent indicator that an unknown could Would unseat Sununu once the campaign gets in full swing.

Majority of New Hampshire Residents: Impeach Cheney! (43 Percent Add "First!")

New Hampshirites hate incompetence, and when it's mixed with corruption, we've got probably the least tolerance of that stew of any state in the nation. Still, this shocked even me:

A majority of the 600 likely voters polled last week said they would support impeachment proceedings against Vice President Dick Cheney, with 52 percent in favor and 38 percent against. President Bush narrowly escapes that category, with 43 percent supporting impeachment action and 45 percent opposed.

To Fergus Cullen: Keep Whining About the Smoking Ban

That strategy really seems to be working for you. Keep it up. We all appreciate it here at BH, it makes our job so much easier.

There's other great stuff in that article, you can read it here.

July Straw Poll - Senate Primary

by: Nicholas Gunn

Thu Jul 12, 2007 at 19:50:21 PM EDT

You must be logged in to vote.  If you have an account, please log in and click on 'There's More' to vote.  If you don't have an account but are a regular reader, feel free to sign up for a free user account and vote.

Obviously, this is not a scientific poll.  If we get a large enough sample, however, we can still get a good deal of insight from it.  For the purposes of this poll, I will only be listing declared candidates.  If you would like to vote for a candidate who is not declared (like Jeanne Shaheen) please choose ?Other?.

Your votes will be anonymous, so you don't have to come out publicly in favor of one candidate or another.  Feel free to use this thread to discuss the candidates.

Here are our results to date:

Thank you for voting!

Steve Marchand: Libby Prison Release a "Miscarriage of Justice"

by: Dean Barker

Tue Jul 03, 2007 at 15:41:51 PM EDT

(PORTSMOUTH, NH) - Decrying a "miscarriage of justice," Democratic Senate Candidate Steve Marchand condemned President Bush's decision Monday to commute disgraced former Vice Presidential Chief of Staff I. Lewis "Scooter" Libby's prison sentence. Marchand called on Sen. John Sununu (R-NH) to likewise condemn the President's actions.

"George Bush has shown a blatant disregard for the American justice system by flouting the court's decision and commuting Libby's appropriate sentence," said Marchand.  "Libby compromised our national security, was convicted by a jury of his peers, and was sentenced by one of Bush's own judicial appointees.  We are a nation of laws and our leaders bear the greatest responsibility to follow those laws.

"From the Iraq War to our own justice system, the gulf between the Bush agenda and the values of the American people continues to widen.  I call on Sen. John Sununu to join the majority of the American people in condemning this action."

NH-Sen: Bill the Delphic Oracle, and some Early Read 2Q Numbers

by: Dean Barker

Sun Jul 01, 2007 at 11:07:38 AM EDT

Shaheen hasn't decided whether to run, and her husband, Bill Shaheen, has said she'll likely announce in the fall. Some national blogs and papers speculated this week - sourcelessly - that Shaheen is leaning toward jumping in the race.

There's that word "likely" again. So now we've gone from September to before September to sometime "in the fall".  Socrates had better luck with the Delphic Oracle.

And some early 2Q numbers:

Katrina Swett has passed $1 million in fundraising for the year to date, according to campaign manager Bob Quinn. She raised $462,000 in the first quarter, and her second quarter totals "easily surpass" that, Quinn said.

Portsmouth Mayor Steve Marchand is on track for a finish "similar to the first quarter," when he raised $97,000, said campaign coordinator David Mason.

Jay Buckey, a Dartmouth medical professor and former astronaut, has received contributions of $10,000 from 85 contributors, and Buckey has loaned the campaign $20,000 and given the campaign $7,000. Most of that money came in over the last week, said campaign manager Karen Liot Hill.

NH-Sen: Embracing Our Late Primary

by: Dean Barker

Tue Jun 26, 2007 at 23:21:54 PM EDT

The thing about chess is that the game pieces represent a king's court. And as our state's motto, our executive council, our enormous state house, the radical democracy of our town hall meetings, and our constitutional Right to Revolution make plain, we're not too fond of kings here.

I'm going to run counter to the conventional wisdom for a moment and suggest an eccentric proposal: a competitive Democratic primary. Because I have come to believe that more than one candidate spells more, not less, trouble for Sprintin' Sununu.

(more)

Sununu Chooses Big Oil over New Hampshire

by: Steve Marchand

Thu Jun 21, 2007 at 17:50:37 PM EDT

Today, Sununu prevented an amendment to a current Senate energy bill from ever coming to a vote.  He helped block over $32 billion in tax incentives for renewable energy research and development.

Why would anyone stop a proposal that would reduce our dependence on foreign oil, help keep New Hampshire's lakes and streams mercury free, and develop economic resources--such as cellulosic ethanol and wood-fired power plants--that support New Hampshire's economy?

Because John Sununu is in the pocket of Big Oil.

Sununu Discovers Union Bosses' Vast Influence in NH

by: Dean Barker

Thu Jun 21, 2007 at 12:34:26 PM EDT

"If Sen. Sununu stands with the President on this critical issue, he couldn't be more out of step with the people of New Hampshire," said Mike Brunelle, a Democratic state representative from Manchester who spoke on behalf of the group [Americans United for Change].

In a written statement, Sununu pushed back against criticism of his stem cell position.

"Americans United for Change is a very liberal special interest funded by union bosses. It is disgraceful that they distort the facts on such an emotional issue for partisan politics," Sununu said.

Man, has he got the Vast Union Boss Conspiracy all figured out.  I mean, no one in this state actually supports expanding stem cell research.  It's just part of a very liberal silly season ploy by candidates:

"President Bush has yet again decided, with the close support of John Sununu, to prevent real progress in the fight against diabetes, cancer, and numerous other diseases," said [Portsmouth Mayor Steve] Marchand.  "With his vote against a veto-proof majority, John Sununu has enabled George Bush to attempt to deny millions of Americans hope for lifesaving cures."

"New Hampshire voters overwhelmingly support stem cell research.  John Sununu continues to prove that he is out of touch with the people of New Hampshire."

A January SurveyUSA poll of likely New Hampshire Primary voters shows that the 62% of Republicans and 89% of Democrats support stem cell research.

"John Sununu has voted with George Bush 90 percent of the time," said [Draft Shaheen founder Kathy] Sullivan. "In just the last year, Sununu has twice voted with Bush and against stem cell research. Nowhere has Sununu put political loyalty above New Hampshire families more than on the issue of stem cell research."

Earlier this year, Sununu opposed the Stem Cell Research Enhancement Act of 2007 that would have allowed more federal funding for stem cell research. Sununu was the only member of the New Hampshire congressional delegation to oppose the bill.

"Time and time again, John Sununu has said 'no' to hope for families dealing with devastating disease and injury," Sullivan said. "He is out of step with New Hamsphire. Jeanne Shaheen has been a steady supporter of stem cell research and would give New Hampshire families a voice in the U.S. Senate again."

Note: Both press releases found their way into my inbox since Bush vetoed the bill yesterday afternoon.  Three cheers for rapid response (another Union Boss tactic, no doubt).

3PM Update: Katrina Swett weighs in:

Swett said, "Stem cell research has the potential to bring hope and healing to literally millions of Americans, yet John Sununu refuses to break with the president on this issue.  This is just one more example of how Sununu places politics above the needs of New Hampshire families."

In a written statement today, Sununu questioned whether stem cell research would actually lead to medical cures, saying, "After years of research, not a single therapy has been approved for clinical trial."

In response, Swett said, "Medical progress takes time.  It took 15 years for chemotherapy to move from the experimental phase to treating and curing a patient.  But it will take much longer for cell therapy to become a reality if John Sununu continues to stand in the way of research funding."

Senate Race Roundup

by: Dean Barker

Thu Jun 14, 2007 at 13:53:57 PM EDT

* Not exactly endorsements, because she's not exactly a candidate, but this may give you a sense of the early interest in the Draft Shaheen movement:

Among those offering support were state Sen. David Gottesman, D-Nashua; Democratic National Committeeman Gaetan DiGangi; attorney Kate Hanna; Young Democrats treasurer Garth Corriveau; activists Howard Morse of Amherst, Hiran Connell of Somersworth and Amy and Michael Conley of Milford; Reps. Jim Ryan, D-Franklin; and Steve Shurtleff, D-Penacook; and former state Rep. Kathy Taylor, D-Dover.

* Jay Buckey has made it official.

* Another write-up, with yet more tantalizing words, on the Marchand press conference yesterday announcing that he will not run for re-election:

"I believe, at the end of the day, she will not run," Marchand said in an interview after his announcement. "I would say that certainly one message here is I would not be putting myself and my young family through the incredible amount of work ... if I thought there was a likelihood Governor Shaheen would enter this race."

* This comment from bloomingpol on the Swett-Lieberman connection is worth noting:

I e-mailed Katrina the very question  (4.00 / 5)
and this was her reply:

"Thanks for getting in touch through the website.  We are always eager to know what is on the minds of voters out there; it helps us ensure that
we're running a campaign for the people of New Hampshire.

I have known Joe Lieberman for a long time and, while he is a friend of mine, I certainly do not agree with him on a lot of issues - especially Iraq. I do find myself disagreeing with him more and more frequently these days.  This doesn't change the fact that we are friends, but it does change my support of him as a politician.

Thanks again for getting in touch."

Morning Update: Who knew? Swett has a YouTube page, replete with clips of the HQ and a stem cell protest outside John E.'s office.

Marchand: will not run for city council again

by: elwood

Wed Jun 13, 2007 at 13:36:22 PM EDT

I believe that Portsmouth voters elect a City Council, which then elects one of its members as Mayor.

Iraq Forevermore Through the Prism of the NH Senate Race

by: Dean Barker

Sun Jun 10, 2007 at 22:03:23 PM EDT

SEN. SCHUMER:And that's why I think the 2008 election, Tim, is going to turn on a positive platform. That's what I've written...

MR. RUSSERT: Not Iraq.

SEN. SCHUMER: Not Iraq.

Some interesting new poll numbers from Gallup suggest that the 2008 Presidential election will be all about Iraq -- and that candidates who favor withdrawal timetables may head into the general election with a sizeable advantage over the pro-war candidates.

The Gallup survey finds that an astonishing 75% -- that would be three out of four voters -- say that the Iraq War will be "extremely" or "very" important in determining their vote.

...The poll also finds that 58% of overall respondents -- and 61% of independents -- say they're "more likely" to vote for a candidate who "only supports legislation on the war that includes a timetable for removing U.S. troops from Iraq."

So, where does our quartet of declared and possible candidates stand on Iraq?

Since starting to cover this race as early as last November, it's been fairly obvious that Iraq is a central part of Mayor Steve Marchand's campaign.  Katrina Swett has mentioned it less (the reason why may become apparent as you read on), and Jay Buckey has often linked it to a larger thread of energy independence.  And then of course, what former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen said during her earlier run against Sununu is a very important gauge as well as she contemplates a decision for 2008.

Follow me over the fold for a fuller investigation on Iraq and the Senate candidates.

NH-Sen: Endorsement Wars, Vol. II

by: Dean Barker

Thu Jun 07, 2007 at 22:38:18 PM EDT

·  Rep. Delmar Burridge (Keene)
·  Rep. Jeffrey Fontas (Nashua)
·  John Lisle- Nashua Activist
·  Rep. Carolyn Lisle (Nashua)
·  Rep. Scott Merrick (Lancaster)
·  Justin Nadeau- 2004 Democratic Congressional Nominee, 1st District
·  Kathleen O'Donnell- City Chair, Keene
·  Rep. Jay Phinizy (Acworth)- Chair, House Committee on Environment & Agriculture
·  Ruth Ellen Post- Town Chair, Windham
·  Rep. Cindy Rosenwald (Nashua)- Chair, House Committee on Health, Human Services & Elderly Affairs; Secretary, Hillsborough County Democrats

I know that an endorsement is of finite political value, but I have to admit, I'm kind of getting into these announcements, for the selfish reason that they are giving me a better sense of the local political landscape in various angles and perspectives.  What's interesting about this one is that six of those listed are in NH-02, so you could argue that Marchand is beginning to extend his reach across the state. 

Below the fold is the complete tally, and as before, please share any insight you may have on what these names may mean for the candidates.

Update: A comment below notes quite rightly that Manchester Rep. George Katsiantonis is on both lists.  Will Katsiantonis be voting early and often?

NH Senate Race Draws Attention from CQ

by: Laura Clawson

Tue Jun 05, 2007 at 17:31:59 PM EDT

And Marchard over the past couple of weeks has made some breakthroughs, gaining the endorsements of dozens of state lawmakers and other public officials. He also has obtained the backing of Democrat Gary Hirshberg, the wealthy president and chief executive officer of the Stonyfield Farm dairy products company, who in March withdrew his own tentative bid to take on Sununu next year.

--snip--

Marchand has been mayor of coastal Portsmouth (with its population of roughly 21,000) since 2005, a year in which he was active in successful efforts to exclude the Portsmouth Naval Shipyard ? actually located just across the New Hampshire border in Maine ? from the Base Closure and Realignment Commission?s latest shutdown list.

A Senate contest between Marchand and Sununu would be unusually youthful. Marchand will turn 34 years old on Jan. 10; Sununu, the youngest member of the Senate since his arrival in January 2003, will turn 43 on Sept. 10.

In the absence of Shaheen, Marchand faces primary competition from Katrina Swett, a business and political consultant with strong family ties to Congress. Swett recently opened a new campaign headquarters, hired full-time staff and announced a campaign steering committee populated by former and current state lawmakers and members of the state?s legal and business communities.

The choice to focus on Marchand is an interesting one, and one that shows that his campaign is garnering significant interest outside New Hampshire despite Katrina Swett's higher first-quarter fundraising.  The question of a Jeanne Shaheen run hangs over this article, too, though. While I respect Shaheen's need to take this decision seriously and wouldn't want her to do anything else, it remains frustrating to have a race that is simultaneously in full swing, with excellent candidates and active campaigns, and on hold.

Meanwhile, it's good to see the overall campaign to defeat Sununu getting the attention we know it deserves.

Buckey, Marchand, Swett: An Embarrassment of Riches

by: Dean Barker

Mon Jun 04, 2007 at 21:32:11 PM EDT

I came to see the senate candidates up close and personal, and to get an idea of where we stand in one of the most important races of the '08 cycle.

I left with two thoughts in mind: that we have an embarrassment of riches on our side, and that John E. Sununu is in trouble deep.

(more)

"I'm Steve Marchand. Let's get started--right now."

by: Dean Barker

Sat Jun 02, 2007 at 22:39:44 PM EDT

I'll have a post up, hopefully tomorrow, with my impressions, as well as video of Katrina Swett and James Buckey, but for now, here's Steve Marchand's speech, which wastes no time getting to the heart of why we need to replace Sununu (please excuse my truly atrocious camera skills):

NH-Sen: Endorsement Wars (and a BH Scoop!)

by: Dean Barker

Fri Jun 01, 2007 at 22:33:50 PM EDT

In the months since I decided not to enter this race, I have spent a significant amount of time with Steve, and I am impressed with his knowledge, poise and thoughtfulness on the issues. I also think he has a superb political mind and an excellent grasp of the electorate.

...In the final analysis, I believe that Steve is highly electable.  A Manchester native, he has strong roots in that community and was the first in his family to attend college.  I believe his personal story will have a refreshing and positive appeal to voters who are concerned about the future of our state and nation and looking for new leadership.

"Katrina Swett is someone who will get things done, on everything from protecting the environment to protecting civil liberties and fighting to expand health care, and I'm proud to support her in the race to replace John E. Sununu in the U.S. Senate."

(more)

June Straw Poll - Senate Primary

by: Nicholas Gunn

Fri Jun 01, 2007 at 14:20:50 PM EDT

Below the fold is the second Blue Hampshire reader Straw Poll for the Senate Primary.  We are trying to do these on a monthly basis, so we can track the results as the election draws closer.

You must be logged in to vote.  If you have an account, please log in and click on 'Discuss' to vote.  If you don't have an account but are a regular reader, feel free to sign up for a free user account and vote.

Obviously, this is not a scientific poll.  If we get a large enough sample, however, we can still get a good deal of insight from it.  For the purposes of this poll, I will only be listing declared candidates.  If you choose 'other' please explain why in the comments.

Your votes will be anonymous, so you don't have to come out publicly in favor of one candidate or another.  Feel free to use this thread to discuss the candidates.

Here are last month's results:

Steve Marchand: 59%

Other: 24%

Katrina Swett: 17%

Thank you for Voting!

Chuck Todd: Marchand Endorsement May Mean Shaheen "Leaning Against" Running

by: Dean Barker

Tue May 29, 2007 at 19:51:14 PM EDT

From Chuck Todd's First Read:

there is speculation that a key endorsement nabbed by active candidate Steve Marchand (he's being backed by one-time Congressional candidate/state Sen. Martha Fuller Clark) means ex-New Hampshire Gov. Jeanne Shaheen is leaning against seeking a rematch against GOP incumbent John Sununu. Frankly, while I trust my source implicitly in New Hampshire on this, I continue to hear that Shaheen is more open to a bid every day. Remember, because of the presidential campaign distraction, a New Hampshire Senate candidate can actually wait longer to get in, particularly one as well-known as Shaheen.

Perfect fodder for Blue Hampshire to debunk or confirm: does Fuller Clark's endorsement of Steve Marchand tell us anything about a Jeanne Shaheen run?

It's funny; I am this moment working on a post (coming soon) that tries to read the tea leaves on the latest Marchand and Swett endorsements.

Speaking of which, Mayor Marchand released another round of endorsements today.  Thirty-two reps from various parts of the state including BH diarist Jim Splaine!

(list below the fold)

Sununu Sprints from his own Support for the New Glorious Summer of War

by: Dean Barker

Fri May 25, 2007 at 09:28:51 AM EDT

On the morning after arguably the most important vote in the 110th Congress so far, I see before me the statements of those involved, and those who would be involved.

Which one of these is not like the other?

I refuse to write the President a blank check for this war.  I challenge him to come back to the table and to accept benchmarks and a reasonable timetable for strategic redeployment.  Americans have had enough. - Carol Shea-Porter

The people of New Hampshire sent me to Congress to begin to responsibly wind down this war, and I cannot support a bill that runs counter to that goal. - Paul Hodes

Every day that the Bush Administration continues its failed Iraq policy is another missed opportunity to hold the administration accountable and to begin bringing our troops home. -Steve Marchand

Women's Business Centers nationwide - and in Portsmouth - stand to benefit from a proposal drafted by United States Senator John Sununu (R-NH) that received final approval tonight (5/24) in both houses of Congress.

...Sununu's measure received approval today as part of a supplemental appropriations bill that includes resources for the Department of Defense. A minimum wage increase is also included in the legislation. - John E. Sununu Press Release

And I love how he takes credit for the minimum wage increase.  You know, the one he voted to abolish.

So utterly, utterly disgusted this morning with President Bush, Senator Sununu, Senator Gregg, the Republican Party, Joe Biden, and the Democratic leadership.

So utterly, utterly proud of Paul and Carol and Steve, and Kerry and Feingold and Boxer and (most of) our presidential candidates.

Steve Marchand Says No to Bush and Sununu's Blank Check for Iraq

by: Dean Barker

Thu May 24, 2007 at 21:17:14 PM EDT

Every day that the Bush Administration continues its failed Iraq policy is another missed opportunity to hold the administration accountable and to begin bringing our troops home.

  The Bush / Sununu team has only offered more of the same in Iraq. There has been no progress on the ground and there is no end in sight.

  We need a clear timetable that holds the Bush administration accountable, that begins to bring our troops home now, and that attaches funding to progress on these fronts.  The legislation now before Congress does not accomplish these goals.

  In the U.S. Senate, I will vote to approve supplemental Iraq War funds only if George Bush and John Sununu show real progress towards getting our troops home safely and leaving Iraq's future where it has its greatest chance-in the hands of the Iraqi people.

  We need to begin bringing our troops home today-and we need to hold George Bush and John Sununu accountable to see that it happens.

Update:  Despite 6 of the 14 Senate nays coming from New England, Sununu and his partner Gregg voted to give Bush billions to extend this war without any accountability whatsoever.