Prog Blogs, Orgs & Alumni
Bank Slate
Betsy Devine
birch, finch, beech
Democracy for NH
Live Free or Die
Mike Caulfield
Miscellany Blue
Granite State Progress
Seacoast for Change
Still No Going Back
Susan the Bruce
Tomorrow's Progressives
Politicos & Punditry
The Burt Cohen Show
John Gregg
Krauss
Landrigan
Lawson
Pindell
Primary Monitor
Primary Wire
Scala
Schoenberg
Spiliotes
Welch
Campaigns, Et Alia.
Paul Hodes
Carol Shea-Porter
Ann McLane Kuster
John Lynch
Jennifer Daler
ActBlue Hampshire
NHDP
DCCC
DSCC
DNC
National
Balloon Juice
billmon
Congress Matters
DailyKos
Digby
Hold Fast
Eschaton
FiveThirtyEight
MyDD
The Next Hurrah
Open Left
Senate Guru
Swing State Project
Talking Points Memo
50 State Blog Network
Alabama
Arizona
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
Florida
Georgia
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Missouri
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
New York
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Texas
Utah
Vermont
Virginia
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin
(Here's hoping someone will poll New Hampshire someday. Oh well, maybe next cycle. - promoted by Dean Barker)
Well, so much for hoping for a pollster who can come close to matching New Hampshire's demographics in their results. The usually-reliable PPP just put out another poll of Cloud Hampshire. Even there, Governor Lynch easily wins his historic fourth term.
The criticism of this one is simple. 28% Democrats. 37% Republicans. PPP is giving Republicans a 9% edge, when the actual Republican edge is, as has been noted repeatedly this election cycle, 0.6%. In a state that voted for President Obama by an easy ten point margin, PPP surveyed people who voted McCain by 2. While it's not so pronounced as the also-flawed UNH poll, PPP still undersampled voters in the 18-29 group, with 10% whereas, for example, in 2004 that age range was 16% of the electorate. And, of course, PPP does not appear to have polled cell phone voters.
PPP is doing one last big weekend of polling before the election, and the top THREE finishers in the poll get one last check-in. Get over there and freep that poll! Let's get New Hampshire some reliable numbers, not the UNH crap!
The new NPR Battleground Poll surveys voters in 70 of the country's most competitive congressional districts, including NH-01 and NH-02. The results illustrate the challenging political landscape Democrats will face in November.
The effort by individual campaigns will have to push against walls that seem very hard to move at this point. We tested Democratic and Republican arguments on the economy, health care, financial reform and the big picture for the 2010 election. The results consistently favored the Republicans and closely resembled the vote breakdown. Democrats are hurt by a combined lack of enthusiasm and an anti-incumbent tone. Among the other findings:
• 62 percent of Republicans in Democratic districts describe themselves as very enthusiastic about the upcoming election. That compares with 37 percent of Democrats in those same districts.
• By 57 to 37 percent, voters in these 60 Democratic seats believe that President Obama's economic policies have produced record deficits while failing to slow job losses - and not averted a crisis or laid a foundation for future growth.
• President Obama's approval rating is at 40 percent in the Democratic districts, but it [is] slightly better at 48 percent in the Republican districts where he outpaced John McCain in 2008.
The PA-12 special election proved that Democrats can win against these strong headwinds with a superior candidate, better strategy, and a strong grassroots effort. Our challenge is clear.
While any poll is only a snapshot in time, a new ABC News/Washington Post poll out this week includes some exciting findings on public support for Democrats today.
Despite their best efforts, the Republican Party's attempts to sabotage President Obama are backfiring. Not only do an overwhelming 6 in 10 Americans (61%) have a favorable opinion of him, but 56% approve of the job he is doing as president.
And the public trusts Democrats, not Republicans, to address the problems our country will face over the next few years. There is a 16 point margin between the percentage of Americans who trust Democrats (47%) and those trusting Republicans (31%)
Why does the public trust Democrats? Because Democrats share their values. Half of Americans (49%) say Democrats better represent their values compared to only 39% who point to Republicans. That's a 10 point gap! But the gap is even larger when you ask the public which party cares the most about their needs. Over half (51%) say Democrats are more concerned about "the needs of people like me" compared to only 36% who say they same about Republicans.
Given these findings, it's no wonder more Americans identify themselves as Democrats (35%) than Republicans (21%). None of this means we can rest. It's essential that we continue to work hard to get our message out and push back against the Republican attack machine. As long as Democrats continue to effectively communicate our values and priorities to voters we will succeed in holding our majorities in 2010. And the party of "No" will remain the minority party.
(Posted by Derek Richer, Press Secretary of the New Hampshire Democratic Party)
They promise results for for U.S. Senate, U.S. House and Governor Friday
UPDATE (Dean): ZOMG - they actually polled New Hampshire this time, not that other state! (methodology, boldface mine):
The poll was conducted by Research 2000 of Rockville, Md., from Sept. 22-24. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone. Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.
The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4 percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.
Huh. Who would've thought? A bigger sample, a more accurate "likely voter", a county by county suborganization, and a party ID breakdown that reflects reality (or at least, only off by a half point or so)?
Actual, per Bill Gardner, Aug 2008:
D: 30.5%, R: 31%, U: 38.5%
Jeanne Shaheen's economic plan is making headlines in the local newspapers. A quick sampling of the news coverage her economic plan received around the state of New Hampshire -- and remember, these are just the headlines and lead paragraphs from the papers:
Seacoast Online: 'A New Direction' - Shaheen stumps in Hampton, backed by firemen
HAMPTON - Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Jeanne Shaheen enjoyed a little chili Thursday afternoon, Sept. 18 before tearing into her opponent on why he's the wrong man to send back to Washington.
WMUR: Shaheen Attacks Sununu on Turbulent Economy
MANCHESTER, N.H. -- The economic situation is playing out in New Hampshire's U.S. Senate race, with Democratic challenger Jeanne Shaheen attacking Republican incumbent Sen. John Sununu. Shaheen is laying the blame for a jittery stock market and shaky economy at the feet of Republicans in Washington.
Concord Monitor: Economy slides into campaign rhetoricWith Wall Street institutions foundering this week, New Hampshire Democrats emphasized Sen. John Sununu's credentials as a free market conservative, saying the anti-regulation tack of Sununu's Republican Party allowed the financial industry to elude oversight on risky deals.
My sense of obligation to put any NH polling up only very slightly outweighs my unwillingness to give Zogby's online polling more credence than it deserves, but FWIW:
Methodology: Zogby International conducted an online survey of 436 likely voters. The poll ran from June 11-30. It carries a margin of error of +/- 4.8 percentage points.
Even among the computer savvy Libertarians who populate our state in greater percentages than in other places, I simply cannot believe that 1 out of every 10 people polled knew who Bob Barr was, let alone chose him. So that pretty much makes me lose faith in this poll altogether.
Please educate me in the comments if you think there is something real to chew on here.
Morning Update: Dante Scala found it bizarre, too.
Vote in this Poll at The Nation - and check out actual responsible journalism. What a concept!
Ted Stevens is already a nationally known disgrace - voting in this poll can help elevate Sununu to the same national level of awareness. That kind of national grassroots awareness could translate into donations for Jeanne Shaheen.
Hillary's Electability and Inevitability is way down. This is a telephone survey by Zogby. Clinton barely beats Romney for example but Obama cleans his clock by 18 points. According to this poll Obama is far more electable than Hillary, who this poll shows would lose badly to McCain, by 7 points, while Obama beats him by 4 points.
Released: December 20, 2007 Zogby Poll: Obama Leads Top Republicans
Telephone survey shows fellow Democrats Hillary Clinton and John Edwards would defeat some GOPers, lose to others
UTICA, New York - Illinois Sen. Barack Obama would defeat all five of the top Republicans in prospective general election contests, performing better than either of his two top rivals, a new Zogby telephone poll shows.
His margins of advantage range from a 4 percent edge over Arizona Sen. John McCain and a 5 percent edge over Arkansas' Mike Huckabee to an 18 percentage point lead over Mitt Romney of Massachusetts, the survey shows. Against New York's Rudy Giuliani he leads by 9%, and against Fred Thompson of Tennessee he holds a 16 point edge.
The telephone survey included 1,000 likely voters nationwide and carries a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percentage points. The poll was conducted Dec. 12-14, 2007.
Democrat Hillary Clinton of New York would defeat Romney by a narrow 46% to 44% margin and Thompson by a 48% to 42% margin. She would lose to Huckabee 48% to 43%, to Giuliani 46% to 42%, and to McCain by a 49% to 42% margin. The data suggest that Clinton has improved her position slightly. A November Zogby Interactive poll showed her losing by small margins to all five of the top GOP candidates.
Democrat John Edwards of North Carolina would beat Romney, Huckabee, and Thompson, but would lose to Giuliani and McCain, the Zogby survey shows.
...
The performance of the Democratic candidates among independent voters is notable. For instance, Clinton trails Giuliani by one point (43% for Giuliani, 42% for Clinton among independents), but Obama leads Giuliani among independents by a huge 56% to 31% edge. Edwards leads Giuliani, 52% to 38% among independents. Clinton has similar trouble among independents against McCain, in that she trails with 37% support to his 46% support. In a prospective Obama versus McCain match-up among independent voters, Obama leads, 51% to 35%. Edwards and McCain are tied at 42% apiece among independents.
As among independents, Obama is the Democrat moderates like best, but his edge among moderates over Edwards is not nearly as pronounced as with independents. For instance, against McCain, both Edwards and Obama lead, but Clinton loses badly. Obama leads McCain by a 51% to 37% edge, while Edwards leads McCain by a 47% to 41% margin.
Clinton loses to McCain among moderates, with McCain winning 51% and Clinton winning 38%.
Time to start finding out where the Blue Hamster crowd stands with the prez race.
So take the poll and tell us who your choice is for the NH Primary, or if you are undecided.
(To take the poll, you must be a registered user, but that's free and easy).
Please, no freeping. This poll is unscientific enough already, but it would be good at least to get a sense of where our community stands now and track it until primary day.
And while we're at it, this might be a good thread to tell us your predictions on who will win in the Granite State both on ours and the GOoPers sides.
The Blue Hamphire Challenge:
Which came first, the Candidate or the Message?
Believe in America Again
OnMyDD:by lovingj, Tue Sep 18, 2007 at 12:23:55 PM EST
Video: Believe in America Again
Everyone has their own reasons for supporting a particular candidate and I decided to dedicate a diary to why I support mine. It is no secret that I am an extremely strong supporter of Barack Obama but this was not always so.
During the 2004 campaign, I supported Howard Dean with a strong leaning towards John Edwards. Howard Dean had a fiery passion to his candidacy that others in the race lacked. However, it was John Edwards sense of idealism and hopefulness about government that really appealed to what I wanted to see in my next president. We all know how that 2004 story turned out so no need to revisit it in detail.
After that devastating 2004 loss, my hopes quickly dashed to 2008 and I began contemplating a Hillary Clinton candidacy as early as December 2004. But it was in early 2006 where I discovered this little unknown Black senator named Barack Obama. He was doing an interview on CNN, I believe, discussing his 2004 speech, which I had not heard at the time, and revelations that he could be the next president of the United States. I quickly dimissed the premise of the whole interview because I assumed like many others that a Black president was impossible. However, after listening to him speak I became slightly more convinced of the possibility that this guy could do it.
Following that interview, I searched the internet for the video of Obama's 2004 DNC speech that everyone seemed to be so giddy about. After a dab of google, I played an 18 minute clip that would finally put to rest my doubts that Obama could be the next president of the United States. That awe inspiring speech motivated a man from Michigan with a wife and three kids to believe in his country again. That man was me.
I have never been an active participant in politics. I just voted in the general election every four years and went about the business of my life. However, Obama's candidacy changed my passive approach to politics. Obama's candidacy motivated me in early 2006 to join www.draftobama.org to persuade Obama to run in 2008. Obama's candidacy motivated me to become a member of MyDD and Daily Kos so that I can learn about promoting progressive politics. Obama's candidacy motivated me to create citizen ad videos that can sometimes take seven to eight hours out of my life without a single penny in compensation. Obama's candidacy allows me to believe in America again.
The following citizen ad is dedicated to all of us believing in America again.
Highlighting his considerable foreign expertise, Governor Bill Richardson last week set forth a path to avoiding military confrontation with Iran over its nuclear program. Richardson called on Bush administration to stop threatening Iran with "incendiary rhetoric," and instead recognize our interests in engaging Iran diplomatically.
Richardson's week ended with a well-received speech before Latino leaders in Florida. Decrying the tone of the debate in the Senate on the immigration bill and how Latinos are portrayed in the media, Richardson asked:
Do you notice that when they depict immigrants, they have someone crossing a wall, jumping as if they are criminals? How about the farmers who break their backs working or those who are cleaning the toilets and working at the hotel where we stay? How about the American media covering the immigrant who died protecting his country?
Also of note, Pollster.com added Richardson to its Top Democrats charts, joining Clinton, Obama and Edwards. Charles Franklin of Pollster.com stated, "For other Democratic candidates, we've not seen a substantial upturn anywhere. Richardson stands alone in that respect at the moment."
For a full review of Richardson's week, continue reading.
We're always trying to improve our use of technology to make the Dodd campaign more transparent and open to our supporters. We've come up with some good ideas over the campaign, but we're always open to your suggestions. Today we want to ask you to give us your input on what you think the Dodd campaign should be doing online.
Would you like to see more live video from the campaign? How about cameras in the campaign headquarters?
More from the road? Bring back the Dodd Pod?
Maybe you'd like us to provide raw footage from commercial shoots to mash-up into user-generated pieces?
Or maybe it's another idea you have?
Tell us what you think at http://chrisdodd.com/webvote
Your input will help us shape our internet operation -- we want to give you the tools and information that you want to have a window into the Dodd campaign and express your support for Senator Dodd online. Please, tell us what you think now on our e-campaign survey!
Sen. Hillary Clinton has wide leads in both New Hampshire and South Carolina in new polls released today and is within the margin of error in Iowa. Sen. Barack Obama is now in third place in Iowa and New Hampshire and is ahead of Edwards in South Carolina. Sen. John Edwards has moved into second place in New Hampshire.
http://bluesunbelt.c...
IOWA
John Edwards 27%
Hillary Clinton 23%
Barack Obama 19%
Sample Size: 600 completed telephone interviews among a random sample of likely Democratic caucus goers living in Iowa (475 Democrats and 125 no party (independent) voters). Sample Dates: April 27-30, 2007 Margin of Error: ± 4 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split.
NEW HAMPSHIRE
Hillary Clinton 37%
John Edwards 26%
Barack Obama 14%
Sample Size: 600 completed telephone interviews among a random sample of likely Democratic primary voters living in New Hampshire (440 Democrats and 160 undeclared (independent) voters). Sample Dates: April 26-29, 2007
Margin of Error: ± 4 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split.
SOUTH CAROLINA
Hillary Clinton 36%
Barack Obama 24%
John Edwards 18%
Sample Size: 600 completed telephone interviews among a random sample of likely Democratic primary voters living in South Carolina (517 Democrats and 83 independent voters).
Sample Dates: April 27-30, 2007 Margin of Error: ± 4 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split.
A new poll from Newsweek shows that Sen. Hillary Clinton and former Sen. John Edwards could compete against the surging campaign of former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani in the 2008 general election.
http://bluesunbelt.c...
Rudy Giuliani 47%
Hillary Clinton 46%
Rudy Giuliani 47%
John Edwards 45%
Sen. Barack Obama who formerly led Giuliani in general election matchups now trails behind by 5 points.
Rudy Giuliani 48%
Barack Obama 43%
It shows Hillary Clinton would be the big beneficiary if either Edwards or Obama drop out and it becomes a two person race....
The new Diego/Hotline open end poll shows Hillary Clinton with 32%, Barack Obama with 20%, and John Edwards trailing with a weak third place of 6% among Democratic voters.
Among all voters Hillary Clinton is the choice of 18% followed by Barack Obama with 12%, Rudy Guliani with 8%, and John McCain with 6%.
The new Cook Political Report poll taken 2/15-18 shows Hillary Clinton 22 points ahead with 42%. Barak Obama is in second place with 20% followed closely by John Edwards with 16%. Bill Richardson is now in fourth place with 5%. The rest of the field has 1% each except for Chris Dodd who has less than 1%.
