A Look at the Partisan Makeup of NH Senate Districts

Awesome! (4.00 / 1)

This is a great visual aid to understanding the inclinations of each region and the natural targets going into this year's senate elections.

The number of densely packed highly Democratic districts also makes me consider what the optimal Democratic map would be, presuming that Democrats retain control of the house, Senate, and corner office and can implement any map they want. Just off the top of my head it looks like districts 2 and 5 could be altered to make both moderately pro-Democrat areas rather than one heavily pro-Democrat and one swing, or that districts 10 and 11 could do the same. 8,7, and 15 could probably all be altered around as well. I know Swing State Project was crowdsourcing plans for Congressional district-drawing a while back, but it'd be interesting to see a similar effort on NH senate districts. They'd be tentative maps until the new Census data comes in, but still, it'd be interesting.

Only the left protects anyone's rights.

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by: RealNRH @ Sat Jun 05, 2010 at 17:41:00 PM UTC

I'm in 17 (0.00 / 0)

and we struggle to find a Democratic candidate for State Senate, which is why Jack Barnes has such a wide margin of victory.  It's a bunch of little towns that skew Republican for the most part.    

We believe in prosperity & opportunity, strong communities, healthy families, great schools, investing in our future and leading the world by example. We are Democrats; we are the change you're looking for.

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by: bloomingpol @ Sat Jun 05, 2010 at 17:53:29 PM UTC

Ask and you shall receive. (0.00 / 0)

People have to be asked to run for office.  That's was Howard Dean's big contribution--setting up a recruiting and promoting operation.

Perhaps the main advantage to be got from asking is that, even if candidates don't get elected, they are left with the satisfaction of having been asked and pleased someone with a positive response.  Also, running for office can be a lot of fun because most people appreciate the effort, even if they don't vote for a particular candidate.

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by: hannah @ Sat Jun 05, 2010 at 18:56:53 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The district is drawn for Jack Barnes. (0.00 / 0)

It has no other reason for existing. It has no geographic or social center. The towns in the northern chunk, where I live, have nothing in common with the ones to the south. People who are know in each area are unknown in the other. There are multiple high schools, multiple SAU's. It is gerrymandering at its worst. Which is the reason we need to go all out in this, the last election before redistricting.

"But, in the unlikely story that is America, there has never been anything false about hope." Si se puede. Yes we can.  

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by: Paul Twomey @ Mon Jun 07, 2010 at 00:58:44 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

4 deep blue districts. 0 deep red districts. (4.00 / 1)

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by: elwood @ Sat Jun 05, 2010 at 21:19:57 PM UTC

This is great! (0.00 / 0)

Thanks for all the data crunching/mapping.

Seeing this map makes me wonder if our Governor will support the Democrat running in D8 this time around, remember that BS? Seems like it could be a great pick up opportunity.

It's also a great visual (of what appears to me) some gerrymandering that is in place. That is the one of the many things we need to keep in mind as we enter this election; It's important to win because we need to make sure we have fair, appropriate districts that represent the geography and social centers.

Hope >> Fear





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by: Mike Hoefer @ Sat Jun 05, 2010 at 21:42:19 PM UTC

agree on the gerrymandering.... (4.00 / 1)

In my earliest political days, I worked at the Board of Elections in NY and was horrified to watch those in control literally look at the statistics for each block before drawing the lines, with crazy results like neighborhoods in a single district through they were separated by swaths of bays - with no bridge connecting them.  And this was done by BOTH parties to guarentee the saefty of districts and make elections a mere formality. My suggestions for more rational district shapes were met with paranois and suspicion that I was shilling for some candidate.

I concluded early on that redistricting ought to be done by a panel of Judges, or a Judically-appointed panel, with all work done in public, with no data other than population figures and political subdivision lines and calculators, with a Default Assumption of Convex Polygonic shapes.

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by: Tully Fitzsimmons @ Sun Jun 06, 2010 at 12:39:12 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'm not so sure of that fix - (0.00 / 0)

It makes sense to have districts follow community boundaries - where people travel to the same work centers, read the same newspapers, listen to the same local radio stations. (Yeah, I know about local radio and newspapers. But there's still some.)

Paul mentioned high schools as a hub of communities - that makes sense too.

But, just crunching the numbers may miss all that. I suspect a topological algorithm in a computer program would produce astoundingly awful districts now and then.

I don't have a solution, but open process helps.

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by: elwood @ Mon Jun 07, 2010 at 23:30:39 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'm not so idealistic (0.00 / 0)

Redistricting is a political process. To the victor go the spoils. It is completely legal for the majority party to redraw the boundaries to favor the election of the majority party candidates in subsequent elections. That is why the stakes are so high in this election.

"Politics ain't beanbag" - Finley Peter Dunne

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by: William Tucker @ Tue Jun 08, 2010 at 01:11:25 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Well, not quite (0.00 / 0)

Redrawing boundaries can run afoul of equal protection constitutional guarantees. Courts are reluctant to wade in, but egregious cases drag them into it.

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by: elwood @ Tue Jun 08, 2010 at 01:32:14 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I only know what I read (0.00 / 0)

Veith v. Jubeliner, (2004)

"In essence, the Court determined that partisan gerrymandering claims are not justicible questions; according to the Court, there exists no discernible and manageable standard for 'adjudicating political gerrymandering claims'."

http://www.sig.msstate.edu/mod...

"Politics ain't beanbag" - Finley Peter Dunne

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by: William Tucker @ Tue Jun 08, 2010 at 01:53:18 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

keep in mind... (4.00 / 1)

...that there is a BIG difference between what governing officials CAN do, Constitutionally, and what they SHOULD do, ethically.  Having Constititional leeway to draw Picasso-like districts does not justify said districts.

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by: Tully Fitzsimmons @ Tue Jun 08, 2010 at 02:42:22 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

District 8... (0.00 / 0)

is turning blue. In 2000 Bush won it by 1000+ votes. In 2004, it went for Kerry by 1000+ votes and in 2008, Obama won it by over 5000 votes!  

"Politics ain't beanbag" - Finley Peter Dunne

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by: William Tucker @ Sun Jun 06, 2010 at 13:09:02 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Actually...these districts were designed by the NH Supreme Court (4.00 / 3)

In 2001 I was the Ranking Democrat on the Redistricting Committee. The Republicans from the first meeting created an atmosphere of contempt for the voters and any sense of fairness.

For a year the Republicans tried every trick in the book to jam through horrible gerrymandered plans. Thankfully Governor Shaheen vetoed each one of them.

Democrats appealed to the Supreme Court who threw out the Republican plans and released the plan we have (except for a few bipartisan tweaks in 2003) today.

It is certain that if the Republicans were to regain control they would return to there past games and  gerrymander themselves back into those past districts that caused them to keep control despite the blueing of NH.

With the current senate districts (since 2004)...

2004- we came within 3089 votes of winning the majority.

2006 - we gained 6 six seats for the largest Democratic majority since partisan elections.

2008 - we retained a back to back majority for the first time (only the fourth majority since the Civil War).

It will be up to each of us to work like hell in 2010 to prevent the Republicans from turning back the clock...


Have you told a stranger today about Bill O'Brien and his Tea Party agenda? The people of NH deserve to hear about O'Brien  and his majority committed to destroying New Hampshire and remaking it into a armed survivalist preserve.  

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by: Ray Buckley @ Sun Jun 06, 2010 at 15:23:18 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

One other thing happened. (4.00 / 2)

In 2004, the GOP again had control of both houses in the legislature and Craig Benson in the corner office. They pushed through another redistricting that increased the advantages the Court had already given them when it created so many multi-member districts in Rockingham County. This redistricting mostly impacted the Senate districts in ways that benefited the GOP.

Clif Below, Peter Burling, and I then brought suit urging that could only be one redistricting per decade under multiple sections of the NH Constitution. The Supreme Court, still reeling from the impeachment disaster, and acutely aware of who provided funding for the Court system declined to follow the plain wording of the state Constitution:

The petitioners first argue that the legislature was precluded from enacting a reapportionment plan in 2004 because it failed to do so at its regular session following the 2000 census. They observe that Part II, Article 9 requires the legislature to reapportion at "the session," and Part II, Articles 11 and 26 require it to reapportion "at the regular session," following each federal census. They conclude that the plain meaning of this language prohibits the legislature from apportioning at any session other than the one immediately following the federal census.

While we acknowledge that a literal reading of Part II, Articles 9, 11 and 26 supports the petitioners' argument, it ignores the purpose and intent of requiring decennial reapportionment, which is to ensure substantially equal representation based upon population.

The Court then went on to make sausage, upholding the redistricting but adding so many limitations on the ruling that it is almost without any value as a precedent.

I have always thought that the language in bold type above was the strangest thing I have ever read in an opinion.


"But, in the unlikely story that is America, there has never been anything false about hope." Si se puede. Yes we can.  

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by: Paul Twomey @ Mon Jun 07, 2010 at 01:25:07 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Oops--forgot the link to t he case. (0.00 / 0)

http://www.courts.state.nh.us/...

"But, in the unlikely story that is America, there has never been anything false about hope." Si se puede. Yes we can.  

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by: Paul Twomey @ Mon Jun 07, 2010 at 01:28:02 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

it's making me sad (4.00 / 1)

I live in District 1, which is all pretty and blue, and as far as I know we don't even have a Democratic senate candidate.  

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by: susanthe @ Sun Jun 06, 2010 at 02:36:37 AM UTC

The filing period is still open, Susan :-) (4.00 / 1)

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by: Tully Fitzsimmons @ Sun Jun 06, 2010 at 12:39:52 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

sssshhhhhh, Thom (0.00 / 0)

you'll scare people. :)

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by: susanthe @ Tue Jun 08, 2010 at 01:41:15 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Often it's not a wonderful thing (4.00 / 3)

to notice you live in a grey area, but in this case, the fact that State Senate District 3 is grey on this map is encouraging, considering where we've come from.

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by: beverlywoods @ Mon Jun 07, 2010 at 14:07:31 PM UTC