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Primary Results- Open Thread

by: Mike Hoefer

Tue Sep 14, 2010 at 19:04:54 PM EDT
Chitter Chatter about Primary Election Results here.

(Dean): Here's a link to the AP's results page.

(Dean):

Time    Precincts     Kuster      Swett
7:46pm   2/188        62%         38%

8:23pm   3/188        63%         37%

9:06pm   6/188        68%         32%

9:21pm   12/188      73%         27%
Mike Hoefer :: Primary Results- Open Thread
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Primary Results- Open Thread | 80 comments
WMUR's Kevin Clay: (0.00 / 0)
According to the secretary of state's office: Voter turnout is "on the high side of normal." Initial reports show voter turnout is around 20 percent, which would be well within the "normal" range. They still think it will end up closer to 24 percent.

Are they softening the landing from the huge turnout predictions made earlier?

http://livewire.wmur.com/Event...

birch paper; on Twitter @deanbarker

Ovide takes Henniker (0.00 / 0)
Ovide Lamontagne's camp reports receiving its first returns of the night. It says Lamontagne won Henniker, 212-190. - John DiStaso

http://www.unionleader.com/art...

birch paper; on Twitter @deanbarker

Ward 2, Keene (4.00 / 1)
Waited for the Ward 2 results as part of Kuster campaign work. Here they are.

Kuster: 304
Swett: 35
Blanks:18

State Rep:

Blank 952
Weed 285
Carroll 103
Chase 197
Hawks 155
Johnsen 190
Lindsey 211
Meader 183
Roberts 243


pic (0.00 / 0)

link to full pic


[ Parent ]
Ouch! n/t (0.00 / 0)

[ Parent ]
The local story - (4.00 / 1)
Andrew Carroll is a Free State activist running as one of eight for seven slots as Dem nominee for state rep. More signs than you average state rep contest. I thought he'd do better; he may in other wards.
[ Parent ]
Hmmm (4.00 / 1)
That makes my 2 hour drive from the coast just to vote for Annie (in Ward 2 of Keene) seem like an unnecessary addition to my carbon footprint...

because who is to doubt the American Way is not the way?
[ Parent ]
Your vote was counted. And, thank you. (0.00 / 0)

[ Parent ]
Cheshire Co. Is looking Huge for Kuster (4.00 / 2)
Pboro 6:1, only a few other towns so far... closest spread so far is 3:1

Hope >> Fear





Create a free Blue Hampshire account and join the conversation.
Winchester Kuster 3:1 (0.00 / 0)
[ Parent ]
Walpole 6:1 (4.00 / 1)
[ Parent ]
Yeesh (4.00 / 2)
Mike, every time you post a comment, I drink another potent potable. . . .
[ Parent ]
Potent Potables? ... (4.00 / 3)
... where's Alex Trebek when ya need him?

 "We should pay attention to that man behind the curtain."
[ Parent ]
Practicing the pronunciation of words from languages he does not speak. (0.00 / 0)


--
Hope > Anarch-tea
Twitter: @DougLindner
[ Parent ]
Potiens potabiles, post politika prima. n/t (4.00 / 1)


birch paper; on Twitter @deanbarker
[ Parent ]
Oy Vez Mear n/t (0.00 / 0)

[ Parent ]
OMG he's speaking in tongues. Potable indeed. (0.00 / 0)


"But, in the unlikely story that is America, there has never been anything false about hope." Si se puede. Yes we can.  
[ Parent ]
Bresler understands me n/t (4.00 / 3)

[ Parent ]
oy vey ist mir n/t (0.00 / 0)


note to close readers: this might be sarcastic so think twice before reading to candidates for use in their attacks on each other
[ Parent ]
Marlborough: (0.00 / 0)
Kuster 130

Swett 30  

You're welcome...

[ Parent ]
OMG: (4.00 / 3)
7:41 p.m. - More unofficial returns from the Lamontagne camp:
Manchester:
Ward 1 - Lamontagne, 788; Ayotte 477
Ward 5 - Lamontagne 193, Ayotte 106
Ward 6 - Lamontagne 549, Ayotte 330

http://www.unionleader.com/art...

birch paper; on Twitter @deanbarker

AP Results page (0.00 / 0)
Unfortunately, they have Dem District 4 Primary as uncontested... not sure how we'll know the write-in results?

Feeling hopeful since 2004...
Dante - Ovide wins Manch easy (0.00 / 0)
Ovide carrying Manchester easily so far
Most if not all wards reporting in Manchester... Ovide @ 54 percent.

http://graniteprof.typepad.com...

birch paper; on Twitter @deanbarker

Also from Scala, (0.00 / 0)
no surprise, but Guinta is carrying Manch:

In NH 01, Frank Guinta up more than 1,700 votes over Rich Ashooh, Mahoney third.

Why is Mahoney in 3rd?

birch paper; on Twitter @deanbarker

[ Parent ]
Because.... (4.00 / 1)
He had no ground game, it was all tv. He ran a general election campaign.



"When you get to the end of your rope, tie a knot and hang on."  Franklin D. Roosevelt    
[ Parent ]
i'm also interested (0.00 / 0)
what this tells us about UNH polling, which continues its long history of hiding behind an MoE that seems to favor edge conditions


[ Parent ]
Auburn and Candia (0.00 / 0)
go to Ovide, per Scala.

birch paper; on Twitter @deanbarker
[ Parent ]
And now Hooksett! n/t (0.00 / 0)


birch paper; on Twitter @deanbarker
[ Parent ]
And Londonderry. (0.00 / 0)
http://graniteprof.typepad.com...

Do we have a FAIL of colossal proportions coming?

Did Judd Gregg err?

birch paper; on Twitter @deanbarker

[ Parent ]
AP has all Manchester wards in (0.00 / 0)
Ovide - 54%
Ayotte - 31%

--
Hope > Anarch-tea
Twitter: @DougLindner
[ Parent ]
Stunning. (0.00 / 0)
I don't imagine Manch is either Binnie or Bender territory.

Nor do I think the UL has that kind of pull.

So, stunning to me. to see such a wide margin.

birch paper; on Twitter @deanbarker

[ Parent ]
Binnie and Bender each got 7 points in Manch--14 total (4.00 / 1)
Ovide beat Ayotte by 23 points.

It's still early and Manchester is just 10% of the state, but it's not an outlier enclave.  It would be very strange for the rest of the state to go so far in the other direction that the candidate with a 23 point lead in Manchester loses.

For what it's worth, Nate Silver thinks Hodes has a much better shot against Ovide than he would against Ayotte. http://elections.nytimes.com/2...

--
Hope > Anarch-tea
Twitter: @DougLindner

[ Parent ]
It's a tricky thing. (0.00 / 0)
I agree with Nate about our chances with Ovide.

Yet I also agree with Kathy that Ovide and Ayotte are tied at the hip position-wise.

She's just better at putting on the faux moderate character.

birch paper; on Twitter @deanbarker

[ Parent ]
I think Ovide is a believer and Ayotte is an opportunist. (4.00 / 2)
That doesn't make one less extreme than the other.

--
Hope > Anarch-tea
Twitter: @DougLindner
[ Parent ]
I disagree with Dean on this. (4.00 / 4)
I would rather face an Ayotte who just squeaks by. Media narrative: "What went wrong with her campaign? Was the Palin endorsement a bad move? Can the bitter primary wounds heal?"

Lamontagne narrative as winner: "Big Mo! Surprising strength! Wins outside his home turf! Party unites quickly!"


[ Parent ]
You make a good point. (4.00 / 2)
But does the primary Big Mo news story of the week trump the extreme positions general election voters will learn about Ovide in the next two months?

I don't know the answer to that.

birch paper; on Twitter @deanbarker

[ Parent ]
Ayotte's plenty right-wing enough to lose those same votes n/t (0.00 / 0)

[ Parent ]
Name recognition? (0.00 / 0)
Establishment support?
Money?

These are all things Ovide doesn't have yet, and that are hard to get this late in the game.  And I'll bet Big John Cornyn at the NRSC is looking at the same Nate Silver projections I am.

--
Hope > Anarch-tea
Twitter: @DougLindner

[ Parent ]
I disagree with elwood on this. (4.00 / 1)
Media narrative: "Plucky moderate up-and-comer turns back conservative challenger, vows to fight for all NH, just like she did as AG!"

Plus, Democrats, Libertarians and Tea Partiers can all come together and rejoice that rebel forces successfully drove a knife into the back of the GOP Establishment.

[ Parent ]
She didn't get much media support yet - (4.00 / 1)
One of the reasons I believe she would have been a weak opponent is: most of the state papers already weighed her and found her wanting. She doesn't even call herself a moderate - she loudly claims to be a conservative. So that narrative - which I expected 6 months ago - doesn't seem likely any more.
[ Parent ]
Plus, the national narrative (4.00 / 1)
seems to be that the kooks are unseating the established candidates.  This dovetails neatly with this pre-established narrative and works to our advantage.  I think.

In the immediate aftermath of Since the start of the financial crisis, the Fed/Treasury lent, spent, or guaranteed $28 $29 trillion to save the banking system.
[ Parent ]
Ward One In Portsmouth (4.00 / 1)
Primarily a Democratic ward, turnout of 238 Democrats, 184 Republicans:

John Lynch - 196
Tim Robertson - 17
Frank Sullivan - 8

State Reps:

Terie Norelli - 172
Laura Pantelakos - 150
Jim Powers - 149
Jackie Cali-Pitts - 138
Robin Read - 130
Chris Serlin 127
Rich DiPentima - 107
Rahul Sivaprasad - 95

Top 7 will be nominated --- Ward One is a small ward (we have a total of 5)and Newington is also part of the district

Republicans:

Stephen - 74
Kimball - 73
Testerman - 7
Emiro - 4

Ayotte - 68
Lamontagne - 56
Binnie - 35 (Portsmouth's next door to Rye)
Bender - 7

Mahoney - 102
Guinta - 33
Ashooh - 28
Bestani - 6


Sub-plot - (4.00 / 1)
Will we have any races so close that the recount process can't be completed in time to mail out general election ballots by Saturday - as required by new federal law?

If we have some races that close, it may force the state to get serious about an earlier state primary.

CD1 7:52pm (0.00 / 0)
Precincts 13/113

Ashooh 28%

Bestani 4%

Guinta 46%

Mahoney 19%

birch paper; on Twitter @deanbarker

BREAKING! (heh) (0.00 / 0)
Lynch wins primary.

says NHPR says AP.  

birch paper; on Twitter @deanbarker

LOL (0.00 / 0)
I have to hand it to Team Lynch - they waste no time.  No - I mean literally - no one minute wasted:

Major NH Republicans Sign On to

Republicans for Lynch Steering Committee

Gov. Lynch to Hold General Election Kick Off in Portsmouth; Receive Endorsement of Professional Firefighters of NH;

Announce Republicans for Lynch Steering Committee

MANCHESTER - Gov. John Lynch will announce members of the Republicans for Lynch steering committee, including some major Republican leaders who have not previously publicly endorsed him, at a press conference 1:30 p.m. on Wednesday.

In addition, Gov. Lynch will hold a general election kick-off in Portsmouth and receive the endorsement of the Professional Firefighters of New Hampshire.

General Election Kick Off

WHEN: 10 a.m.

WHERE:               Portsmouth Public Library

                               Levenson Room

                               175 Parrott Ave

                               Portsmouth

Receive the Endorsement of the Professional Firefighters of NH

WHEN: 11:30 a.m.

WHERE:               Londonderry Country Club

56 Kimball Road
               Londonderry

Announce Republicans for Lynch Steering Committee

WHEN: 1:30 p.m.

WHERE:               Legislative Office Building

                               North State Street

                               Concord



birch paper; on Twitter @deanbarker
[ Parent ]
WMUR: (4.00 / 1)
Tiffany Eddy reports: Annie Kuster campaign says they are cautiously optimistic after early results. Smaller towns are coming in and things look positive.

http://livewire.wmur.com/Event...

birch paper; on Twitter @deanbarker

DiStaso: (0.00 / 0)
North Hampton:
Ayotte- 308
Lamontagne- 205

Bow:
Ayotte- 553
Lamontagne - 484
Bill Binnie - 170

http://www.unionleader.com/art...

birch paper; on Twitter @deanbarker

At Lynch Party (0.00 / 0)
His daughter Julia is doing a great intro about how her dad is a great dad and governor.



"When you get to the end of your rope, tie a knot and hang on."  Franklin D. Roosevelt    
Deep thought: It will be interesting (0.00 / 0)
calculating Binnie's votes earned to dollars spent ratio.

birch paper; on Twitter @deanbarker
Kuster takes Bow/Lebanon (4.00 / 2)
OK, if it's 4:1 Leb, (0.00 / 0)
I am now very interested in the Hanover numbers.

birch paper; on Twitter @deanbarker
[ Parent ]
Unofficial numbers from Walpole (0.00 / 0)
Kuster  265
Swett      41

The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane. --Marcus Aurelius, courtesy of Paul Berch
[ Parent ]
Littleton (0.00 / 0)
Kuster 182
Swett   55

I'm thoroughly drunk now.  

[ Parent ]
I should've voted Swett (0.00 / 0)
just to cushion the blow.

Drink plenty of water before you pass out, DD.

[ Parent ]
Thanks, buddy (4.00 / 1)
Not surprised by the result, but these margins are brutal.  

All on the same team tomorrow. . . .  

[ Parent ]
naaaah (0.00 / 0)

[ Parent ]
naaaah (0.00 / 0)

[ Parent ]
With 19 of 301 precincts in, (0.00 / 0)
Ayotte is still behind Ovide by 20%.

I know the early numbers are basically meaningless, but 20% is a lot of ground to pick up.

birch paper; on Twitter @deanbarker

Put NH back to work! (4.00 / 1)
Governor spent a lot of time talking about jobs.

Also, we balanced the budget, unlike many states. Rating agencies upheld our credit ratings while we provide services to children and elderly.

Are you ready to work the next 7 weeks? Crowd roars.

We have passed a strong anti bullying law, and decreased drop out rate, cut it in half. Every child now has the opportunity to attend public kindergarten. This is what is at stake?

Are you ready to work? Crowd chants yes we are?



"When you get to the end of your rope, tie a knot and hang on."  Franklin D. Roosevelt    

Are you ready to work? (4.00 / 4)
Yes we are!

NH is best state to raise a child. Our choice is to move NH forward. We protect the rights of all.

We have put NH on right track. We all need to work as hard as we can. Are you ready to work?

Yes we are!

A rowdy crowd at Lynch party!



"When you get to the end of your rope, tie a knot and hang on."  Franklin D. Roosevelt    

LOL: (4.00 / 1)
Josh McElveen reports from Ayotte HQ: The crowd hasn't grown much over the last hour or so, but the whispers have. A common question: "Is there any good news yet?"

http://livewire.wmur.com/Event...

birch paper; on Twitter @deanbarker

If Kelly goes down in flames ....... (0.00 / 0)
... will we be hearing an explanatory speech from the retiring Senator Gregg, entitled Judd for the Defense or what?

 "We should pay attention to that man behind the curtain."
[ Parent ]
Farewell, Frank, Karen, Jack. (4.00 / 1)
Please pick up the signs you littered my roads with.

birch paper; on Twitter @deanbarker
Deep thought: (4.00 / 1)
If Kelly loses, how often will the DC GOPers deny that she was the establishment candidate?

And how long will it take for Palin to cozy up to Lamontagne?

birch paper; on Twitter @deanbarker

bigger cities going Kuster (4.00 / 3)
I'm hearing
Keene 83/17
Nashua 54/46
Concord 75/25

Hope >> Fear





Create a free Blue Hampshire account and join the conversation.
Smaller town for Kuster (4.00 / 1)
Walpole  86.6/13.4*

*Still unofficial

The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane. --Marcus Aurelius, courtesy of Paul Berch

[ Parent ]
O'Donnell defeats Castle in Delaware (4.00 / 1)
FWIW, Nate Silver thinks that's good for Dems too.  http://elections.nytimes.com/2...

--
Hope > Anarch-tea
Twitter: @DougLindner
+1 (4.00 / 3)
This is enormous.  The Tea Party just cost the Republicans a seat.  Goes from near-certain loss to certain victory.
[ Parent ]
I'm not for counting our chickens, (4.00 / 1)
But it definitely creates an opportunity to hold a seat we were going to lose.

Meanwhile, not that I'd vote for him, but as long as Republicans hold a couple hundred seats in the Congress, it's too bad Mike Castle won't be one of them.  He talks like a mensch.

--
Hope > Anarch-tea
Twitter: @DougLindner

[ Parent ]
I am (4.00 / 1)
O'Donnell makes Ovide look like Gandhi.  She's that crazy.

But, then again, I am borderline intoxicated right now.  So the house plant next to me looks a lot like Gandhi, too.

[ Parent ]
I agree with your calculus, (0.00 / 0)
But Coakley/Brown is a lesson I'll never forget.

--
Hope > Anarch-tea
Twitter: @DougLindner
[ Parent ]
But Coakley looked like a house plant to sober people. n/t (0.00 / 0)

[ Parent ]
WOO-HOO! (4.00 / 1)


birch paper; on Twitter @deanbarker
[ Parent ]
Ayotte catching up. (0.00 / 0)
Ayotte took Concord but not by the numbers Lamontagne took Manchester.

http://www.unionleader.com/art...

It's still Ovide over her by 14% margin, with Binnie now cracking double digits at 10%.

birch paper; on Twitter @deanbarker

Nothing from Nashua, yet - turnout was high there. n/t (0.00 / 0)


In the immediate aftermath of Since the start of the financial crisis, the Fed/Treasury lent, spent, or guaranteed $28 $29 trillion to save the banking system.
[ Parent ]
She's gaining annoyingly quickly (0.00 / 0)
Only 17% reporting, and Lamontagne's down to a 11% lead.

Granted, the 17% were probably some of the highest population precincts, but this could be a close one.  Or Ayotte might even pull away after the next hour.

[ Parent ]
Mahoney STILL in 3rd place. (4.00 / 1)
So happy right now.

birch paper; on Twitter @deanbarker
AP calls it for Kuster. (0.00 / 0)
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/f...

--
Hope > Anarch-tea
Twitter: @DougLindner
Second Place - governor (0.00 / 0)
My cousin Rep. Frank Sullivan is beating Tim Robertson.  Is there a victory for expanded gambling over an income tax in the making?  



"When you get to the end of your rope, tie a knot and hang on."  Franklin D. Roosevelt    
Primary Results- Open Thread | 80 comments

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