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Repeat Earlier Poll Critique

by: RealNRH

Fri Oct 15, 2010 at 01:07:22 AM EDT
( - promoted by Dean Barker)

The UNH Survey Center felt the need to re-issue their earlier poll, apparently. Their new poll has literally all the flaws of their last one and even exaggerates them - like taking the youth vote down to 7% of the electorate from the historical 12-16%. The only positive adjustment was increasing the sample size.
RealNRH :: Repeat Earlier Poll Critique
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Repeat Earlier Poll Critique | 5 comments
Lots of interesting demographic asterisks (4.00 / 2)
For starters, these polls apparently only contact people with land lines. I haven't had a land line in 6 years, and I'm not the only one:
http://pewresearch.org/pubs/17...

From http://www.electoral-vote.com :

there is an increasing amount of evidence that cell-only households are more Democratic than landline households.

I'd be willing to bet those 35 and under (who also lean Democratic) have a higher degree of cell-only status, and have tended to be under-represented in these polls.

What I don't understand is that reputable polling houses must know this is a problem, and should have some way of 'correcting' for it...

Exactly. (4.00 / 1)
The Pew polling suggests that including cell phones shifts results about 5% more Democratic than landline-only. So there's a little simple math here - subtract the 6% built-in Republican oversample, subtract the 5% landline-only modifier, and let the 18-34 crowd represent their normal proportion of the electorate - and suddenly this poll looks a lot more like the Ras, PPP, and ARG numbers that show a race within the MoE.

Only the left protects anyone's rights.
[ Parent ]
Poll Math (0.00 / 0)
I don't know what the "enthusiasm gap" coefficient is, but we need to lower it.

The more it goes down, the less the polls matter.

Two words: Clinton, Primary.

Whack-a-mole, anyone?

chart (0.00 / 0)
[ Parent ]
Link for a larger view (0.00 / 0)
http://picasaweb.google.com/mh...

Hope > Fear




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Repeat Earlier Poll Critique | 5 comments

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