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Expecting the GSP CYA Poll to be out any day.

by: StraffordDem

Mon Oct 25, 2010 at 14:15:18 PM EDT
Maybe it's just me, but I'm expecting a Granite State Poll out this week that shows fairly tight races - within the MoE, so that Smith has fall back position.

It looked like Smith was under-sampling Dems and the youth vote, but I had no idea how much until I read that 18-29 year olds voted at 26% in 2006.  Smith sampled them at 8%!  According to Tufts Universty, young people vote for Ds by 58 - 38, and the Hill poll had CSP winning the youth vote by 45 points.

Link:

www.civicyouth.org/quick-facts/youth-voting/#3
StraffordDem :: Expecting the GSP CYA Poll to be out any day.
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Expecting the GSP CYA Poll to be out any day. | 4 comments
Are those the right comparisons? (4.00 / 1)
Smith sampled the 18-34 demographic as 8% of the total voter universe. I have seen estimates that say that of the total universe of voters, somewhere between 12 and 18 percent of the total voting population is in the 18-29 demographic. So Smith did quite dramatically undersample voters in the 18-34 range, at 8%.

I believe the page you're looking at is saying that among the 18-29 demographic, 26% actually vote. That's a different statistic. 26% of the 18-29 demographic might very well make up 16% of the total voting population, with the higher participation rates among older groups.

IT for John Lynch '04 and NHDP '08 - I'm liking my track record so far!

After a second look, (0.00 / 0)
I think I was confused by the wording.  I double checked with Census Bureau data that indicates that the youth vote is indeed about 12% of the total voting universe.  Couldn't find a breakdown by age, by state, tho.

Thanks for getting me straight.  Smith under sampled, but only by 50%.  :>)

"Physical concepts are free creations of the human mind, and are not, however it may seem, uniquely determined by the external world." A. Einstein

[ Parent ]
Land lines? (0.00 / 0)
And how many of the 12% have landlines to poll with?
[ Parent ]
Funny. (4.00 / 1)
And true!

Like Ras, they come home at the end.  Total CYA.

Meanwhile Frank wants us to believe his internal poll that has him up by 1,000 points or so.

Because Frank is so entirely trustworthy.

birch, finch, beech

Expecting the GSP CYA Poll to be out any day. | 4 comments

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