The First Congressional District of Cloud Hampshire

Yet even in Cloud Hampshire (0.00 / 0)

The (somewhat less) disproportionately elderly, Republican citizens don't much like Charlie Bass:

http://www.boston.com/news/loc...

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by: daveMB @ Fri Oct 15, 2010 at 19:58:40 PM CDT

No! (4.00 / 3)

The CD2 demographics are completely different.  Much more in line with the slightly stronger Ds in CD2.

And that's exactly the problem with these random samples.

There's no doubt in my mind that Annie is going to beat Charlie.

But a UNH poll showing she's ahead isn't why I think that.

birch, finch, beech

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by: Dean Barker @ Fri Oct 15, 2010 at 20:03:01 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

There should always be doubt in your mind. Doubt is good. (4.00 / 2)

Coakley/Brown Coakley/Brown Coakley/Brown Coakley/Brown -- we can never forget that.

I'm glad to see Kuster isn't taking anything for granted.

--
"Don't lose your grip on the dreams of the past; you must fight just to keep them alive!"

@DougLindner

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by: Douglas E. Lindner @ Fri Oct 15, 2010 at 22:13:08 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Dean is right, but... (0.00 / 0)

I should have checked the poll's sample splits for CD-01, as they are indeed not that different from the usual as Dean says.  But I think there is something to the notion that even Republicans don't like Charlie Bass.  Canvassing today, the guy I met who was most interested in arguing with me thought that we had to get rid of Obama and Pelosi and the rest of the "crooked politicians", but he said he wasn't going to vote for Bass.  (I told him about the pellet stove business in case he needed more incentive.)  From my limited anecdotal sample from Keene and now Winchester, Lynch is running ahead of Kuster who is running ahead of Hodes -- it seems that the polls more or less agree with that.

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by: daveMB @ Sat Oct 16, 2010 at 19:16:11 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

1st District (4.00 / 1)

Dean's right. The first district--despite being home to the Seacoast progressives and Manchester Dems has always been more conservative than the second district.

The first time I heard that, I was surprised.

But I can't figure out why the poll shows that fewer dems (percentage wise) are backing Carol in District one than Annie in District two.

I haven't met one democrat that has soured on Carol.

Just doesn't stack up.

Of course Hillary Clinton didn't stand a chance against Barrack Obama in the NH Primary either.

And Shawn Mahoney was Guinta's biggest threat in the Republican primary.

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by: Chaz Proulx @ Fri Oct 15, 2010 at 20:26:06 PM CDT

MoE Chaz - (4.00 / 1)

Remarkably, Guinta is bleeding R support big time.  Smith had to oversample to create such a large gap.

One out of 5 Rs reject him.

"Physical concepts are free creations of the human mind, and are not, however it may seem, uniquely determined by the external world." A. Einstein

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by: StraffordDem @ Fri Oct 15, 2010 at 20:56:49 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Sean (0.00 / 0)

Whatever

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by: Chaz Proulx @ Fri Oct 15, 2010 at 20:26:54 PM CDT

Yeeeeah. (4.00 / 3)

That would be 40% Republicans, 25% Democrats. Drop that down to a more realistic, say, 5% Republican edge in NH-01, and there you go. Without fixing the ridiculous issues the GSP continues to have with undersampling the youth vote, without dealing with missing landline voters, without fixing a single thing other than bringing the sample demographics just slightly more into line with New Hampshire's demographics, and Guinta suddenly doesn't lead even in this poll.

If registered Republicans comprise 40% of the electorate and Democrats make up 25%, then yeah, Guinta might get numbers like those. Look at actual registrations and it's a heck of a lot closer to 33/33.

IT for John Lynch '04 and NHDP '08 - I'm liking my track record so far!

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by: RealNRH @ Fri Oct 15, 2010 at 23:35:48 PM CDT

UNH really (4.00 / 1)

should flunk Andy.

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by: Lucy Edwards @ Sat Oct 16, 2010 at 05:44:46 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

There are some good nuggets in (0.00 / 0)

the poll.

Guinta's Republican support is fading and he could well be in the mid 70s.  He can't win with those type numbers.  His support among undeclared voters is unchanged since September, despite what Smith says.  Carol's support has fallen some, and the undecideds (among U voters) has risen.  This is understandable, at least to me, because of the negative ads being run against Carol.

What this tells me is that R voters, who know him as well as we do, do not like him all that much, and are liking him even less on a daily basis.  U voters, who do not yet know him, have not been sold on him.  People need to get to know our forked-tongue opponent.

Now, let me ask a question:  Does anyone, in any universe, believe Carol will pull in only 30% of U voters?  BS.  The U voters in this state are 45% lean R, 45% lean D, and 10% swing.

U voters will have no more than a 5 point gap, and there's still time to make that in our favor.

"Physical concepts are free creations of the human mind, and are not, however it may seem, uniquely determined by the external world." A. Einstein

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by: StraffordDem @ Sat Oct 16, 2010 at 06:48:23 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Via Kos (4.00 / 1)

Read a similar deconstruction of Gallup's generic congressional poll on Huffington Post by Alan Abramowitz.  Key paragraph:

But how plausible are Gallup's results?

An examination of some of the internals from the latest Gallup survey of likely voters leads to the conclusion that these results are wildly implausible. First, Gallup shows a much larger percentage of Republicans (55% Republican identifiers and leaners vs. 40% Democratic identifiers and leaners) and conservatives (51% conservative vs. 28% moderates and 18% liberals) than we've ever seen in a modern election. They also show a smaller percentage of voters under the age of 30 (7%) and a larger percentage of voters over the age of 65 (27%) than we've seen in any modern election. But that's not all. The candidate preference results for some subgroups of voters are just wildly implausible.

Although we don't get leaners with Smith's poll, he does tell us that 58% of his respondents disapprove of President Obama.  My inference is that this is in line with the Gallup poll breakdown, and, thus, is just as implausible.

We need to stop complaining about Smith and start doing something about it.  Smith has no historical precedence to base this partisan breakdown on and many of the polls he's conducted are irresponsible and dangerous to democracy.  Polls such as these can manipulate narratives and politically naive voters.  We need to demand a higher standard.  

"Physical concepts are free creations of the human mind, and are not, however it may seem, uniquely determined by the external world." A. Einstein

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by: StraffordDem @ Sat Oct 16, 2010 at 07:14:24 AM CDT

Would it help (0.00 / 0)

for a lot of us to let UNH know that we don't appreciate having our state university system associated with this kind of political hackery?

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by: Lucy Edwards @ Sat Oct 16, 2010 at 07:21:33 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

True Story - Andy Smith (0.00 / 0)

In 2002, I was working for Katrina Swett's campaign against Charlie Bass.  It was a tough race in a heavy GOP year, and we were hitting Charlie hard.

About two weeks before the election, we received word of an Andy Smith poll that showed Katrina down by 6 points -- within the margin of error.  Naturally, we were excited by this, and eager for the good news and the momentum it would bring.

But Andy received a few calls from fellow muckety-mucks saying that the poll was not credible, so he opted not to release it.  Based on the final result, this was a good call.  

But it speaks to the bizarre approach that UNH uses to poll New Hampshire voters -- and the lack of credibility that its surveys inspire.

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by: Dartmouth Dem @ Sat Oct 16, 2010 at 09:16:18 AM CDT

I'm embarassed (0.00 / 0)

As a ManchVegan, I'm truly embarassed that Frank's leading here by such a wide margin (Andy's inaccuracies notwithstanding).  After 4 years of minimalist mayoring, after seeing Gatsas do more in a month than Frank would in a year, I'd think that folks would have had enough.  His "leadership" style was to prove that government can't do anything by doing nothing himself.

But I must say that I've been just a little bit tempted to support his run for House - just to get him out of town.  I'm hopeful that if he gets to Washington, he'll stay there - or anywhere else - far away from here.

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by: The Money Magician @ Sat Oct 16, 2010 at 18:40:48 PM CDT