9 Comments: 2012 Election Climate

The 9 Comments format (4.00 / 3)

I adopted this a few years ago. The purpose is to put a lot of related, half-baked ideas out there in hopes of stimulating a community discussion that might develop some of them.

---

by: elwood @ Mon Apr 25, 2011 at 10:06:02 AM UTC

success! n/t (0.00 / 0)

note to close readers: this might be sarcastic so think twice before reading to candidates for use in their attacks on each other

---

by: JonnyBBad @ Mon Apr 25, 2011 at 17:03:33 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Anybody want to buy a house (4.00 / 1)

in a small town?  If I can sell it before my property taxes go out of sight, I can escape this gated community with the clothes on my back.

---

by: Lucy Edwards @ Mon Apr 25, 2011 at 11:30:35 AM UTC

Gpod points all. (4.00 / 1)

I wonder about the seeming assumption that the economy will be a drag on Obama.

Ultimately, it is unknowable, but macro trends seem to be indicating continued recovery and a better jobs trend. (and political scientists seem to think that trend is more significant than  absolute numbers). At this stage, it looks like it could go either way, but my guess would be that it will be sufficiently muted as an issue so than the assault on the middle class, as personified by the attack on Social Security and Medicare, will dominate the discussion.

(Or at least, I hope so.)

"But, in the unlikely story that is America, there has never been anything false about hope." Si se puede. Yes we can.  

---

by: Paul Twomey @ Mon Apr 25, 2011 at 12:15:25 PM UTC

2 words, Paul: Gas Prices (4.00 / 1)

I agree with you up until Libya's oil supply became questionable. It almost doesn't matter if the economy is gaining a few hundred thousand jobs here and there (except, of course, to those who get those jobs).  Disposable income of most people will continue to shrink as gas prices climb. You see the anger about this already in the polls.  

""The more (money)one has, the more one wants.""


/Benjamin Franklin.

---

by: susaninrindge @ Mon Apr 25, 2011 at 12:46:43 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Good Point, Susan... (4.00 / 1)

...and already President Obama has taken as much as a 5% "hit" on the gas price issue.  But if his Administration can "follow the money" and the greed that traces to gas speculators and corporate profiteering, American citizens will understand who's really to blame.  

President Obama has asked the Justice Department to examine the reasons for unexpected gas price increases.  The greed factor this time may finally be an overstep by the speculators and oil companies.  

---

by: Rep. Jim Splaine @ Mon Apr 25, 2011 at 14:12:37 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I agree, Jim. (4.00 / 1)

They know where the end of that inquiry will wind up.  I pointed out last week that Saudi Arabia has cut back crude production on weak demand.  When the world's only oil producer with excess capacity cuts back production on weak demand, and gas prices continue to rise, the invisible hands of speculators are in our wallets.

In the immediate aftermath of Since the start of the financial crisis, the Fed/Treasury lent, spent, or guaranteed $28 $29 trillion to save the banking system.

---

by: StraffordDem @ Mon Apr 25, 2011 at 15:01:29 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Instead of fighting oil companies.... (0.00 / 0)

....LET THEM RAISE PRICES. The higher the gasoline prices, the more the incentive for alternatives.

The Democratic Party must hammer home a CONSISTENT, well-communuicated message that AGREES with the American people that the oil companies are schmucks and in bed with the GOP.  DEMAND alternative energy, REMIND us of thje BP spill and TIE it to lax regulation, DEMAND improved rail, and tie oil to the GOP.

CONSISTENTLY.  EARLY and OFTEN.  

---

by: Tully Fitzsimmons @ Tue Apr 26, 2011 at 00:24:37 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

The only thing we can know about gas prices 18 months from now is that whatever is driving them at that point will not be todays situation in Libya. (0.00 / 0)

Sure if the election were held today, gas prices would play a major role.

However,fuel prices are inherently volatile and Libya will have long since played itself out as a factor/excuse in setting gas prices. Gas prices both inflate and deflate rapidly and no one can begin to project their effect on an election 18 months away.

(I also think in the past presidents have been willing to release stocks from the Strategic Oil Reserve to ameliorate the effects of  gas price spikes. That this could have a political benefit to a sitting president could no doubt enter the calculus).


"But, in the unlikely story that is America, there has never been anything false about hope." Si se puede. Yes we can.  

---

by: Paul Twomey @ Mon Apr 25, 2011 at 19:00:08 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

It might not be Libya (4.00 / 1)

But the Middle East seems to me to be in the throes of what could be prolonged instability. I think it's not unreasonable to think this instability will continue to wreak havoc on oil futures and prices at our pumps.

""The more (money)one has, the more one wants.""


/Benjamin Franklin.

---

by: susaninrindge @ Mon Apr 25, 2011 at 21:11:57 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The Republicans are on it! (4.00 / 3)

With rising gas prices, it's a good thing that the Republicans have our backs... cutting funding for high-speed rail and public transit investments at the federal level, and attempting to repeal the nascent rail transit authority in Concord.  Not only will these moves make New Hampshire, and especially cities like Manchester and Nashua, less competitive with their regional neighbors, but they ensure that New Hampshire residents and workers continue to have their economic well-being tied to fluctuation (but overall sustained increases) in gas prices.  Rather than cute proposals like a temporary gas tax cut, we should be looking at ways to create a more equitable, stable and sustainable transportation network in this country.

---

by: FrankLloydMike @ Mon Apr 25, 2011 at 19:24:59 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The Republicans (0.00 / 0)

love the high prices for gas, and even would support higher prices since, as Speaker Boehner has said today, the higher the price the less likely Obama will get a second term.  

---

by: mevansnh @ Mon Apr 25, 2011 at 22:52:25 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

It's my guess that the labor force will have been permanently (0.00 / 0)

shrunk as a result of transfers to the shadow or underground economy.  An increasing reliance on cash provides some support to that hypothesis.  The official tabulators don't like to confront that trend because that would be admitting that there are activities for which they have lost count.

---

by: hannah @ Mon Apr 25, 2011 at 14:44:14 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

#4 - Presidential Politics (0.00 / 0)

I see a Romney/Rubio ticket that will split a key Democratic constituency and assuage the Independents. Already Romney cleans Obama's clock in NH polls. Obama himself has done a pretty good job of flip-flopping enough to counteract Romney's reputation for same. He can win the primary with so many others splitting the hard core t-bagger vote. With Rubio, he gets Florida (Nevada, New Mexico, CA?)

Obama's only hope is for a serious t-bagger to win. It becomes more unlikely, the more who run.


""The more (money)one has, the more one wants.""


/Benjamin Franklin.

---

by: susaninrindge @ Mon Apr 25, 2011 at 12:51:45 PM UTC

Cleans Obama's clock? What poll? n/t (0.00 / 0)

In the immediate aftermath of Since the start of the financial crisis, the Fed/Treasury lent, spent, or guaranteed $28 $29 trillion to save the banking system.

---

by: StraffordDem @ Mon Apr 25, 2011 at 13:15:16 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

here (0.00 / 0)

for one

""The more (money)one has, the more one wants.""


/Benjamin Franklin.

---

by: susaninrindge @ Mon Apr 25, 2011 at 13:20:44 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Saw that. (4.00 / 3)

Polls within the margin of error are seldom described as cleaning someone's clock.  If clocks were being cleaned in that poll, I'd say that the president had the wipe cloth out - and understanding how polls are conducted, I would be very interested in seeing an Obama/Romney poll, head-to-head, without the noise of the other extreme Republicans.

Are there others, as your reference to "for one" seems to imply?


In the immediate aftermath of Since the start of the financial crisis, the Fed/Treasury lent, spent, or guaranteed $28 $29 trillion to save the banking system.

---

by: StraffordDem @ Mon Apr 25, 2011 at 13:34:59 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

A 37% approval rating (0.00 / 0)

Is pretty poor, don't you think?
Actually the same poll was reported in several places.

""The more (money)one has, the more one wants.""


/Benjamin Franklin.

---

by: susaninrindge @ Mon Apr 25, 2011 at 13:37:05 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

37% says to me (0.00 / 0)

That Undeclared voters prefer Romney. Would you disagree?

""The more (money)one has, the more one wants.""


/Benjamin Franklin.

---

by: susaninrindge @ Mon Apr 25, 2011 at 13:38:31 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Different poll (0.00 / 0)

here for NH approval

""The more (money)one has, the more one wants.""


/Benjamin Franklin.

---

by: susaninrindge @ Mon Apr 25, 2011 at 13:44:49 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

It's 39%, (4.00 / 4)

and the margin of error is 5%, in a poll of 426 respondents, 19 months before the election.  I didn't see the internals, and don't know where in the order Obama/Romney appeared in the question.  Romney may look like an excellent candidate if he appears after Palin, or Donaldwhatshisname.

This said, the economy stinks and I don't see it improving for working folks anytime soon.  In fact, I think it's going to get worse and I'm expecting a significant downslide on Wall Street (better move your millions,SIR!:>)

The president is in trouble, no doubt, and OFA is gearing up as if he is.  Plouffe says this is going to be a nail-biter.  No sense picking out an early poll with lots of noise to reinforce the Republican message.  Let's see how well Romney polls after the Republicans feast on each other for a few months and people get to know the real Mittens, founding father of universal healthcare!

In the immediate aftermath of Since the start of the financial crisis, the Fed/Treasury lent, spent, or guaranteed $28 $29 trillion to save the banking system.

---

by: StraffordDem @ Mon Apr 25, 2011 at 13:50:34 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The 37% was actually his approval # not Romney/Obama poll # (0.00 / 0)

""The more (money)one has, the more one wants.""


/Benjamin Franklin.

---

by: susaninrindge @ Mon Apr 25, 2011 at 14:01:13 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Caveat emptor on poll interpretation - (0.00 / 0)

Reading polls is worse than reading MPG claims.

One of the big variables in polls - entirely aside from sampling - is how hard the pollster pushes the respondent to take a firm position.

The Dartmouth poll has both "Unsure" and "Neutral" choices for Approval of the candidate. They add up to 19% for Obama.

---

by: elwood @ Mon Apr 25, 2011 at 22:10:45 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Hispanic Monolith? (4.00 / 1)

Rubio is of Cuban descent.

He did live in Las Vegas, as a kid, for 6 years. However, it is not a default setting for Hispanics to vote across divisions of nationality.

Yes, Rubio would have a leg up, but he would have to bridge over a chasm of complete lack of Republican respect for the broad Hispanic community.

I'd suggest "tokenism" gets more play in the media, than it does in the minds of voters.

"Ill writers are usually the sharpest censors." - John Dryden

---

by: Jack Mitchell @ Mon Apr 25, 2011 at 14:24:24 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Romney will not be the nominee (0.00 / 0)

Despite the power of being next, teabaggers will take him down both in Iowa and here, just for healthcare.

--
Hope > Anarch-tea
Twitter: @DougLindner

---

by: Douglas E. Lindner @ Mon Apr 25, 2011 at 16:07:31 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Not here if (4.00 / 1)

Undeclareds take Red Ballots

""The more (money)one has, the more one wants.""


/Benjamin Franklin.

---

by: susaninrindge @ Mon Apr 25, 2011 at 16:22:00 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'm not saying he won't be a contender, (0.00 / 0)

But after getting crushed in Iowa (and he will), a candidate needs to land in the top two in New Hampsphire to remain viable. Not sure Romney can manage that.

Still, it goes without saying that he's a far more respectable candidate for President than Donald Trump or Michele Bachmann.

--
Hope > Anarch-tea
Twitter: @DougLindner

---

by: Douglas E. Lindner @ Mon Apr 25, 2011 at 18:12:06 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I think it is simplistic (4.00 / 1)

I think it is simplistic on its face to imply that by adding a Hispanic V.P. candidate like Marco Rubio to the ticket, that Mittens can solve the 'Hispanic' problem of the GOP...the problem is real, based on Immigration law changes, Health care insurance changes proposed/implemented by the GOP, and seen as frankly racist by an overwhelming number of Hispanic American voters. Buy what do I know, you may be right.

note to close readers: this might be sarcastic so think twice before reading to candidates for use in their attacks on each other

---

by: JonnyBBad @ Mon Apr 25, 2011 at 17:11:31 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

They don't have to peel away a lot of Hispanics (0.00 / 0)

To change the equation in some states.

""The more (money)one has, the more one wants.""


/Benjamin Franklin.

---

by: susaninrindge @ Mon Apr 25, 2011 at 18:31:27 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

and if the candidate for Governor is Lynch who is supporting an amendment to roll back the Claremont Lawsuit??? (4.00 / 1)

How do Democrats run for the State House????? Do they hang with Moderate Republican Lynch who supports the death penalty and it's expansion, did his own version of slash and burn state budgets shafting county and municipal governments, refuses to address our unbalanced property tax dependent tax structure (he revels in his support for the Union Leader/Thomson ax the tax pledge), wedded to amending the constitution to limit state support for public education, painfully silent on guns as the extremist legislature armed everyone in every setting, opposes medical marijuana, etc.

or:  as folks committed to lowering unconscionably high property taxes on real estate that has less and less marketable value and is virtually impossible to unload, restoring sanity to Concord and refusing to gut the humanities, the arts, support for the mentally ill and the disabled, commit to support for higher education reminding the state that ranking 50th in the nation in state support for our colleges and universities does not invest in the future but taxes our youth, support medical marijuana, refuse to roll back revenue sharing for communities, and are willing to address real health care reform that goes beyond the easy target of cutting uncompensated care. The biggest challenge will be for Democrats to find a message that speaks their truth and still runs with a tepid Democrat that resents the very presence of Democrats on the ballot.

---

by: political chowder @ Mon Apr 25, 2011 at 13:03:01 PM UTC

Excellent "Call-To-Action," As Always... (4.00 / 2)

to be expected from political chowder.  

I do think that John Lynch has a heart in the right place, and the mind to get as close to there as possible.  While I've never bought into the notion that a politician's first duty is to get elected (I think idealism and best intention is paramount), fact is if he didn't get elected it would be "Governor Stephen" or "Governor Kimball" right now.  

In 2012 I think John Lynch would continue to be our best step forward,and a 5th term is reasonable.  I'd hope he opposes any Constitutional Amendment that compromises our state's obligation to invest in education, and I trust he will.  

I think the charge for tax reform based more on ability to pay might need to come from the bottom up instead of the top down, much like it almost did in previous years.  With the Republicans pushing more obligations onto cities, towns and counties -- and the property tax -- more people are coming to realize there are other choices.  

---

by: Rep. Jim Splaine @ Mon Apr 25, 2011 at 14:40:02 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Excellent Analysis, Elwood (4.00 / 1)

We could have a little discussion within each of the 9 points, but I think your assumptions are right-on.  

Like in 2006, 2008, and 2010, national issues and mood -- the economy being a prime motivating factor -- will affect 2012.  It all depends on turnout.  Some 30 million people who had voted in 2008 didn't vote in 2010.  Elections are always decided by whom is moved to go to the polls.  Elections are won by those who show up; elections are lost by those who don't.  

If the choices of Democratic-leaning constituencies are clear and they turn out, as I expect will be the case, Democrats will do well statewide and nationwide.

However, President Obama has to be sure he keeps to his promises to significantly draw down in Afghanistan and Iraq, stay out of any more adventures like Libya, make it clear that speculators and corporate greed has resulted in higher gas prices (and that they are Republican's best friends), and he also has to stick to our Democratic Party ideals for preserving Social Security and Medicaid, the environoment, and investing in education.  

Plus the economy has to continue to trend toward an upswing, which economists seem to indicate is likely.  Every economy has ups and downs, and the policies that Democrats had advocated the past several years are paying off.

President Obama is on line to do all those things.  If that happens, and Republicans in New Hampshire keep acting like the right-wingers who lead them, Democrats will do very well.  I think.

---

by: Rep. Jim Splaine @ Mon Apr 25, 2011 at 14:32:01 PM UTC

Citizens United. (0.00 / 0)

Very little discussion going on right now in the media of what was such a tremendous - and new -  feature of 2010 in NH.

Presumably we will be a swing state up for grabs, so it invites all that Koch & Pals money on the one hand; on the other we have far fewer EVs than other states so perhaps relative to 2010, where we had a major senate race and two house seats in play the anonymous expenditures might feel smaller this time.  Though I doubt it.

I wish I had any silver lining about it, but I don't.  It's just awful - possibly in the top five of worst consequences to the country stemming from a Supreme Court decision.

birch paper; on Twitter @deanbarker

---

by: Dean Barker @ Mon Apr 25, 2011 at 23:55:21 PM UTC

We need to know (0.00 / 0)

where the money to elect all those legislators came from, because there was money involved there as well, maybe not much, but some.  There is work being done on this.  
And we need to ask over and over if NH really doesn't care about all that money coming in to our state.  
It really is a Catch 22, we need a Congress that will pass disclosure laws but all the undisclosed money goes to elect people who won't vote for disclosure laws.  

---

by: Lucy Edwards @ Tue Apr 26, 2011 at 11:57:02 AM UTC

[ Parent ]