BH Straw Poll: NH-GOV #2

Tell ya what (3.14 / 7)

The politics in NH are running on a razors edge. NH's progressive illuminated best check their egos and their career trajectory at the doors and go beg Lynch to run again. And when I say beg, I mean bring you fat wallets so the guy won't have to self fund.

That goes for all you pinky ups with ties to DC. The POTUS circle needs to back Lynch. There is no sense in going to the WH Easter Egg Roll without coming back with a doggie bag.

Fund the man.

Why? Because it will be deleterious to the long term strategic interests of the NH's progressive community to have a philisophical battle in this politcal climate.

Survive 2012 and look forward.

Blunt enough?

"Ill writers are usually the sharpest censors." - John Dryden

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by: Jack Mitchell @ Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 17:25:34 PM UTC

it's possible (0.00 / 0)

to make this point without displaying sneering contempt for the progressives, whom I believe you're trying to win over.

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by: susanthe @ Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 18:45:49 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

No Seriously (3.50 / 2)

Putting aside the hate game we play for a sec.

On the Dem side, the money in NH comes from a fairly liberal bunch. So the operatives cater to thier meal ticket. Additionally, activist, like you and JonnyBBad, tend to lean well to the Left.

I have my moments, as well. have you not heard me say, "Corporate feudal masters?"

However, the voting base of the party is closer to Scranton, PA then Keene or Portsmouth. No amount of Deaniac rhetoric and cheerleading is going to change that, any time soon.

The party machine is torn between winning seats and running its operation, which one would think is the same thing? But, there is that lingering question of FITN.

I'm asking the monied liberal elites to fund victory. Giving time for NH to blue out. Elwood talks of the enclaves. That is a good start. Gen. Patraeus, in COIN speak, would talk about an oil spot strategy.

Where he has Taliban, you have free staters.

Ultimately, I am routing for the Liberals. Maybe not all the way to you, liberal. But, liberal enough to be a solid liberal.

But, NH ain't there yet.

Jeanne Shaheen was a good step. Now you got Lynch. The state won't curumble if the revenue imbalance isn't solved tomorrow.

Put the money into to victory and keep the faith.

"Ill writers are usually the sharpest censors." - John Dryden

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by: Jack Mitchell @ Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 19:37:54 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

so I'm a pinko (0.00 / 0)

The question asked was what do we do if Lynch doesn't run. I think it behooves us to start thinking about that.

I haven't always loved Lynch as the governor, but he's done enough good work this year to get my support if he runs again.

Of course, trying to win me over using Petraeus is a losing strategy as well....

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by: susanthe @ Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 20:04:49 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Scranton? (4.00 / 3)

I don't know much about Scranton, but I'd be very surprised if the voting base in New Hampshire is closer to Scranton than Keene or Portsmouth.

New Hampshire's voting base, like its population in general, is generally well-educated and middle-class.

Outside the south-central and southeastern portion, where the population is sparser and more rural, most voters are still connected to villages and small cities.  These voters, perhaps more than others, understand the importance of good land stewardship and maintenance of rural infrastructure.

In the denser, faster growing south, most voters live in cities or suburbs where they are intimately connected both to New Hampshire's cities and metro-Boston.  I think most people in these areas, as evidenced in the recent poll regarding commuter rail, understand the importance of urban-focused infrastructure both for quality-of-life and economic development.

There are a vocal minority of Free Staters and other diehard libertarian types, but I don't think most of these people exemplify the stereotypical, socially conservative rural voter.  This is a total guess, but based on the towns represented by people such as Rep. Bates, I would assume that the very small minority of voters who are social conservatives are mostly concentrated in the southern suburbs.  I still think most people there do not fit that description.

There are also a minority, less vocal but active, who are further to the left.  Many of the folks on Blue Hampshire would fall into this area, I'd guess, but my sense is that with some exceptions they are much less dogmatic than the right-wingers.

That brings me to what I view as the vast majority of New Hampshire voters: socially liberal/libertarian (take your pick), economically prudent (this is different from stingy "economic conservatism"), and overall pragmatic.  I'd say this is where the majority of Democrats--including Shaheen, Lynch, much of the 2006 and 2008 legislature, and many of us on this site--are, and I'd also guess that a large portion of Republicans (ie: Walter Peterson) and "independents" are here as well.

New Hampshire is a state with a lopsided, inequitable tax structure, but also the first state in which a governor signed a successful marriage equality bill into law; it's a state with crumbling infrastructure, but (which until this year) has always provided some assistance to its neediest residents.  I don't think it's accurate to say it's not liberal--in many ways, it is, and this past election aside, demographically it is becoming more so.

As I said, and as I think history and demographics show, the majority of voters--including members of both parties and independents--are socially liberal, economically prudent and pragmatic in what they expect government to provide.  New Hampshire voters may not want quite the same level of government as exists in Massachusetts or elsewhere, but I also certainly don't think they want the level given to them by the current legislature.

Both parties and both sides of the political spectrum include moderates who appeal to that majority, but as we're seeing only one party continues to address their needs and wants.  The Democratic Party in New Hampshire doesn't need to tone down its liberalism or progressivism--liberal and moderate Democrats in the state provide the pragmatic approach voters want; what they need to do is highlight that combination of social liberty, economic prudence and pragmatic approach to governance which is so plainly absent from the current Republican Party.

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by: FrankLloydMike @ Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 21:38:25 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I come from Scranton (0.00 / 0)

And you're right, FLM.  

""Hope is the dream of a soul awake.""

/French Proverb quotes.

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by: susaninrindge @ Fri Jul 08, 2011 at 11:44:23 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I don't know what you're talking about. (3.90 / 10)

If Lynch runs, there is no race.  He won't get a serious challenge.  I hope he does run.

If he does, expect virtually everyone in the big D spectrum to be behind him in a big way.

There is no contradiction between supporting him enthusiastically for another two years while differing from him fundamentally on revenue.

And if he doesn't run, other who step forward don't need to "solve" Pledge Politics via their candidacy, or even their term in office.  All they need to do is refuse to play by Mel Thomson's and Bill Loeb's 1970s era fear politics.

Again, I hope Gov. Lynch runs. If he doesn't, I'd want to hear more about the possibility of Jackie Cilley.

She's tough as nails, speaks plainly and with moral force, has a background in NH that covers our different regions and socio-economic ground, and has a razor sharp knowledge of the harm the GOP supermajority are causing right now


birch paper; on Twitter @deanbarker

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by: Dean Barker @ Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 18:49:36 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Funding, Post Citizens United (3.50 / 2)

The GOPers aren't going to send twerpy little Johnny Stephen with his silly budget balancing pen in 2012.

They will come hard.

All the hype aside, NH isn't feeling the pinch. If the national economy turns down, granite staters will have to choose between a proven governor and the other guy.

Remember, in 2010, they picked Ayotte and in 2012, the "other guy" will have the Koch Bros behind him,thanks to SCOTUS.

Lynch won't win on his grin. And can you even point to a 2010 ground game? Lynch wins by governing. And he'll need a TON of TV ads to keep voters thinking straight, in light of all the lies they will be told.

To draft Lynch, write a check.


"Ill writers are usually the sharpest censors." - John Dryden

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by: Jack Mitchell @ Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 19:47:19 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

in the parts of the state (4.00 / 1)

that don't exist to most people, and certainly receive no media coverage, NH IS indeed feeling the pinch.

By next year, the results of this state budget are going to be felt all over the place. John Stephen will be lucky if someone doesn't stick his pen right up his....snout.

NH is not a poor state. NH is a cheap state. (h/t to tchair)
We can't cut our way to prosperity on the state level, any more than we can on the federal level.

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by: susanthe @ Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 20:00:38 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

2 Partially Agree... (4.00 / 1)

Yes Times are fragile and I have been very thankful for Governor Lynchs strong support in the corner office.

But alternatively once some of the decision of this past year start to hit main street it may be exactly the right time to start talking about what we are going to differently to solve NH's needs.

Frankly I think whomever is running on the D ticket John Lynch or another will need to address in more head on than we have in the past few gov races.

NH has a spending problem. We do not spend enough on critical needs and services to continue to be a viable state in the long term.

Hope >> Fear





Create a free Blue Hampshire account and join the conversation.

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by: Mike Hoefer @ Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 18:51:31 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

This is pretty much, diary hijacking. (4.00 / 1)

Write your own diary on this different topic.

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by: elwood @ Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 20:42:11 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Pindell: Hassan for Governor? (4.00 / 1)

Should Governor John Lynch decide against seeking a fifth term under the golden dome, it appears a well-known Democrat may be ready to make a bid.

Former State Senator Maggie Hassan has confirmed to WMUR that she is weighing a run for the governor's office, but only if Governor Lynch decides not to run.

-snip

"Ill writers are usually the sharpest censors." - John Dryden

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by: Jack Mitchell @ Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 21:13:12 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

No Labels or Democrat? (2.50 / 4)

Hassan has been the spokesperson for "No Labels."

Please, look at who they are and what they are saying.

They want Democrats to give it up, to cave in, to surrender our agenda, who we are, to the new Republicans. Check it out for yourself.

She may be a fine candidate for that message. We'll also need a Democrat, don't you think?

No'm Sayn?

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by: BurtCohen @ Fri Jul 08, 2011 at 12:07:11 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I disagree (4.00 / 2)

The diary is poll on the election; a comment about the election seems on point.

That said, Jack, I have trouble with your thesis. This is the trap liberals are always put in: only a moderate can win. Well, if the moderate then loses, then what? Conversely, if the liberal is nominated and loses ... was that really why? Everyone believes what they want, but only moderates have the privilege of never hearing their candidate can't win. Let the primary decide.

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by: JimC @ Fri Jul 08, 2011 at 01:45:17 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

The diary is explicitly about (4.00 / 1)

"if John Lynch doesn't run."

Duh.

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by: elwood @ Fri Jul 08, 2011 at 02:16:27 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Fair point n/t (4.00 / 1)

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by: JimC @ Fri Jul 08, 2011 at 02:18:04 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

True vs. This (4.00 / 1)

I feel ya JimC, its like Schrödinger's cat, a problem that's entangled. Is the quantum liberal in the sealed box dead or alive?
Well it's not exactly that analogous, but I think its not the issue of whether or not only a moderate can win in this environment but rather; Independent voters, those w/o party affiliation, while not yet a majority, have decided the last five Presidential elections. Hence swing voters in swing states get all the play. Let the primaty decide.

note to close readers: this might be sarcastic so think twice before reading to candidates for use in their attacks on each other

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by: JonnyBBad @ Fri Jul 08, 2011 at 02:19:18 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

As Santa said in "Miracle on 34th Street", (4.00 / 2)

That's what this hearing(/election) will decide.

If you do open the box, the liberal might be dead or might be alive, depending on when you open it, who the liberal is and the half-life of the right-wing attack memes du jour. It might be a very bad idea, for that liberal and that liberal's friends, to open that box at the wrong time.

But ultimately, if you never open the box, the liberal will never be alive.

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by: Tim C. @ Fri Jul 08, 2011 at 18:53:14 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

there you go again Jack (0.00 / 0)

How odd that you speak this way...lets have a car wash, a rent party, a candle sale...

note to close readers: this might be sarcastic so think twice before reading to candidates for use in their attacks on each other

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by: JonnyBBad @ Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 17:37:49 PM UTC

I agree he'd be the strongest candidate (3.57 / 7)

However, the question was "If Gov. Lynch were not running, who would be your choice?" That's a fair question. We need to be thinking about all possibilities.

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by: Lenore Patton @ Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 17:40:01 PM UTC

"Other" (3.50 / 2)

I'm sorry, but right now I think the only Democratic candidate who could win in this political climate is Gov. John Lynch.  If he doesn't run, it will make for a VERY interesting time in NH.

"We start working to beat these guys right now." -Jed Bartlet

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by: cblodg @ Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 18:23:42 PM UTC

3: Mostly Agree (4.00 / 2)

I don't think Lynch is the only candidate who could win in this political climate--and remember that the political climate in November 2012 will be somehow different than that of today, just as today's is different from November 2010.  I personally have a hard time believing that most New Hampshire residents are happy with what the GOP's policies, and I think they'll be even more unhappy as the ramifications become clearer over the next year.

All that said, having Lynch run would let the Democrats breathe a bit easier and focus on races we have to win back.  Despite my disagreement with him on some issues (especially broad-based taxes), I hope Lynch runs again so that Democrats can hopefully easily retain that seat and spend more energy on the legislature and congressional seats.

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by: FrankLloydMike @ Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 18:55:39 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The intent of my post was really the second paragraph of yours. n/t (0.00 / 0)

"We start working to beat these guys right now." -Jed Bartlet

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by: cblodg @ Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 19:34:00 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Disagree. (4.00 / 3)

I think most of the names listed above would win. But if Lynch could win in 2010, he can win any year, and since we can't necessarily count on getting the leg and exec council back (though we must try), we should go with as close to a sure thing as we can get.

--
Hope > Anarch-tea
Twitter: @DougLindner

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by: Douglas E. Lindner @ Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 19:27:28 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

but Doug (4.00 / 1)

I don't know upon what you base the assertion that these unknowns could win. Lynch had a hard time raising money last time...and was out spent 10:1.
You're saying an unknown can raise spend the dollars necessary to change the reality that outside of very small circles they have limited to no name recognition. That is compared to say, Avoid Lamontagne.

note to close readers: this might be sarcastic so think twice before reading to candidates for use in their attacks on each other

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by: JonnyBBad @ Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 20:36:48 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

As I said a few posts below, (0.00 / 0)

I didn't vote in this straw poll because I think we should draft Governor Lynch for a fifth term and avoid the risk of losing what leverage Democrats have left in Concord--we don't know how we'll do in the House/Senate/EC elections in 2012.

--
Hope > Anarch-tea
Twitter: @DougLindner

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by: Douglas E. Lindner @ Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 20:40:45 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

One more thing: (0.00 / 0)

I don't concede a loss before the game begins. I agree John Lynch is our strongest candidate by far, but I would never say, "If he doesn't run, we can't win." That's a self-fulfilling prophecy, and there are way too many of those in politics already.

--
Hope > Anarch-tea
Twitter: @DougLindner

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by: Douglas E. Lindner @ Fri Jul 08, 2011 at 05:50:00 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Disagree (4.00 / 4)

Once the local property tax hikes caused by this year's Republican budget hit, and once people start discovering the services that were cut as a result of this year's Republican budget, New Hampshire Republicans are going to be stuck having to either run from their party (and losing their base) or stand by their party's decisions (and owning the resultant negative outcomes).

I like Governor Lynch and think he's doing a fine job keeping the state functional despite the lunacy of Bully O'Brien and his Cohnsorts in the House. But if he decides that he's had enough, then New Hampshire Democrats have quite a few highly electable options who could step up. The political environment right now already is leaning away from Republicans; when the outcomes of Republican priorities take effect, they're going to be deep under water.

Only the left protects anyone's rights.

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by: RealNRH @ Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 19:47:46 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

When (0.00 / 0)

I wonder when Governor Lynch will decide? Last cycle it looks like it was April 16, 2010 so only 6+ months from Election Day. We are obviously still very early against that metric.

It would seem if he is not going to run he will have to decide how to balance the potential impact of when to become a "Lame Duck"  while giving Democrats the best chance to retain the seat (which means let the potential become candidates and start their campaigns.)

Would January 2012 be early enough of a successful campaign to start? Not early enough if you want to campaign the way that was so successful for AMK last time around.

Hope >> Fear





Create a free Blue Hampshire account and join the conversation.

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by: Mike Hoefer @ Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 18:43:39 PM UTC

When John Stephen announces, Gov. Lynch should make a decision within about a month. (4.00 / 1)

And if Governor Lynch does not seek another term, we should assume Jeb Bradley and Ted Gatsas will run.

--
Hope > Anarch-tea
Twitter: @DougLindner

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by: Douglas E. Lindner @ Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 19:29:15 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

off topic but... (4.00 / 2)

love tagline Doug!

Politics is a dirty game but if you don't play the bad guys win - Morgan Magnus Grey

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by: Blue Granite @ Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 20:39:43 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Jeanne Shaheen (4.00 / 1)

Jeannie started her Gubernatorial campaigns in late May early June, iirc.

note to close readers: this might be sarcastic so think twice before reading to candidates for use in their attacks on each other

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by: JonnyBBad @ Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 20:38:38 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Jackie (4.00 / 1)

I decided to vote for Jackie Cilley who to my surprise is running up front.  She has been following the current mess in Concord closely and has some very (very!) strong opinions.  She would definitely be the most interesting candidate by far of those names mentioned in the poll.  And I think she could capture the public's imagination in a way most of those other people couldn't.

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by: TimothyHorrigan @ Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 19:06:41 PM UTC

Not voting in this straw poll. (4.00 / 2)

Though I appreciate Mike's careful wording of the question and there are a number of excellent names on that list who I'd enthusiastically support, the strongest candidate we can put forth in a general election is John Lynch, and with Republican super-majorities in the House, Senate, and Executive Council, we need to make sure we don't lose the Governor's office.

Nobody has any idea what will happen to the legislature in 2012, but until Governor Lynch announces his intentions, I'm for drafting him to a fifth term.

--
Hope > Anarch-tea
Twitter: @DougLindner

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by: Douglas E. Lindner @ Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 19:25:00 PM UTC

If you voted for Mark Connelly... (4.00 / 1)

would you tell me why you think he's a good candidate?

Other than his testimony before the joint committee on the FRM matter a year ago, just before he resigned, I've not see/heard much of him. Please inform me.

JillSH

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by: JillSH @ Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 21:45:28 PM UTC

it is odd (4.00 / 2)

that 29 people voted for Connelly and not one posted a reason why he's their chosen candidate.  

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by: susanthe @ Fri Jul 08, 2011 at 12:14:10 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Voted other again (4.00 / 3)

I voted other as a vote for John Lynch.



"When you get to the end of your rope, tie a knot and hang on."  Franklin D. Roosevelt    

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by: Kathy Sullivan 2 @ Fri Jul 08, 2011 at 01:57:38 AM UTC

I thought you might do that! n/t (0.00 / 0)

Hope >> Fear





Create a free Blue Hampshire account and join the conversation.

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by: Mike Hoefer @ Fri Jul 08, 2011 at 02:03:00 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

au contraire mon frere (4.00 / 1)

the liberal would only dead or alive in a sealed box, and one of those possibilities would be true in this universe, but the other is simultaneously true in another. One man's ceiling is another man's floor you know?

yet inside the box...

note to close readers: this might be sarcastic so think twice before reading to candidates for use in their attacks on each other

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by: JonnyBBad @ Fri Jul 08, 2011 at 19:45:03 PM UTC

4 for the music, not the inscrutible multiverse reference. (3.00 / 1)

Those two do nice harmonies, they should get together.

"But, in the unlikely story that is America, there has never been anything false about hope." Si se puede. Yes we can.  

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by: Paul Twomey @ Fri Jul 08, 2011 at 23:10:15 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

John Lynch (0.00 / 0)

Our Governor's popularity is rapidly eroding in the North. I live in Orford. The tiny Franconia parade had 68 people in orange protesting Northern Pass. He needs to STEP UP on this issue and protect the people he serves. I marched with Republicans, Democrats, Libertarians and Tea Party folks....we are united on this.

Your beliefs become your thoughts. Your thoughts become your words. Your words become your actions. Your actions become your habits. Your habits become your values. Your values become your destiny.     Mahatma Gandhi

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by: Kelley Monahan @ Mon Jul 11, 2011 at 16:01:30 PM UTC

My 2 cents...... (0.00 / 0)

My vote and active support will be behind former Portsmouth Mayor Steve Marchand. He has the fiscal record that meets (or beats!) Lynch, and more liberal social positions than Lynch. He is articulate, has good ideas, is a consensus builder, and is eminently electable.

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by: Tgroh @ Tue Jul 12, 2011 at 23:57:20 PM UTC

........If Lynch doesn't run. (0.00 / 0)

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by: Tgroh @ Tue Jul 12, 2011 at 23:58:02 PM UTC

[ Parent ]