NH Congressional Polls (PPP)

Polls (0.00 / 0)

Who did the polls, what did they ask and to whom did they talk? It's so easy to get the answers you want!

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by: Katemck @ Thu Jul 21, 2011 at 16:06:29 PM UTC

These were done by Public Policy Polling (0.00 / 0)

for Daily Kos.  These are not Republican polls.  PPP has been extremely accurate.

This is horribly depressing.

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by: unhhockey @ Thu Jul 21, 2011 at 16:11:45 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

This is really early. (4.00 / 1)

There is work to do, but we can do it.  If we start getting depressed by polls now, for goodness sake, we can all go crawl in our holes and pull the hole in after us!
There are a lot of people who aren't paying attention yet.  I know it is hard to believe, but Bob Perry and his crew tell me that they are continually surprised how few people are actually aware of what is going on as they canvas for the special election in Strafford 3.  It's our job to make sure they know, and while I love Blue Hampshire, that's not the place to tell the oblivious ones.  

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by: Lucy Edwards @ Thu Jul 21, 2011 at 16:50:37 PM UTC

Nobody wants to be a front-runner this far out. n/t (0.00 / 0)

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by: hannah @ Thu Jul 21, 2011 at 17:52:49 PM UTC

These numbers mean (0.00 / 0)

We are not doing our job. We are not educating our neighbors and they are not paying attention. We have to realize how few people know how their representatives vote.  Get it in the papers via letters.  Get the word out when you're talking with people.  Do they know he wants to destroy SS and Medicare? Do they know he is willing to sacrifice social safety net to keep his wealthy patrons from paying taxes?  Don't assume your neighbors know anything. But assume that they still care about something!

""The more (money)one has, the more one wants.""


/Benjamin Franklin.

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by: susaninrindge @ Thu Jul 21, 2011 at 19:59:56 PM UTC

I've been writing a series of letters (4.00 / 1)

for mostly local papers about how puzzling my congressman is.  He says he wants to help me when he is in NH and then he goes to DC and votes for the millionaires and billionaires and their priorities.  Etc., etc.  Medicare, Social Security, debt limit.  What is interesting is that people come up to me when I am out and about and tell me that they like my common sense and I should keep writing my letters.  They are letters about my life and how Frank Guinta is really hurting me.  Here's the latest:

I must say my congressman, Frank Guinta, is a very puzzling fellow.  When he's home he's so concerned about us here in New Hampshire, but when he's in DC, it's another story!  And what he's doing in DC is really, really worrying me.
Frank says he won't vote to raise the debt ceiling unless they can find a way to cut my Medicare and Social Security.  Those "entitlements" are the problem, because if the government has to pay them, there isn't enough money to provide for the millionaires and billionaires out there who are going to create new jobs. These jobs are going to appear as soon as they get whatever ransom they have been holding out for.  It's been about 30 years we middle class folks have been paying and hoping, but I guess they still need more.  
So Frank is going to get me, either way.  He's going to help cause a market crash by refusing to pay the country's outstanding bills, (we aren't talking new debt here, folks, but stuff like the Iraq and Afghanistan wars and those ransom tax cuts from the Bush era) which will destroy a lot of retirement accounts, including mine.  OR, he is going to cut the rest of my retirement income, Social Security, as well as make my healthcare so expensive that whatever I have left will go trying to keep me alive by choosing between food and healthcare.  From my cardboard box under the bridge.  

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by: Lucy Edwards @ Thu Jul 21, 2011 at 20:09:50 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The answer he'll give you (0.00 / 0)

is you should have made better choices, Lucy.  He's got his...so, the heck with you.

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by: mevansnh @ Thu Jul 21, 2011 at 21:19:38 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Who cares what he says? (0.00 / 0)

I am talking to my fellow retirees.  I make a bet that there are a few that will identify.  

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by: Lucy Edwards @ Thu Jul 21, 2011 at 22:27:49 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

That's a great one, Lucy (0.00 / 0)

I, too, get letters and calls cheering me on after writing letters, but often I feel that most people's positions are pretty hardened. I have yet to get a response from someone whose mind I've opened or changed.

But one never knows....

""The more (money)one has, the more one wants.""


/Benjamin Franklin.

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by: susaninrindge @ Thu Jul 21, 2011 at 22:37:09 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

What surprises me (0.00 / 0)

is that people with whom I have never discussed politics are the ones coming and asking me to keep writing.  I forgot to add that.  There are not a lot but they are not people I expect to hear it from.  

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by: Lucy Edwards @ Fri Jul 22, 2011 at 01:47:54 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'll be contrarian: (4.00 / 6)

It's the NH-02 numbers I expected to be better.

The NH-01 numbers are actually an improvement over the election results.

Meanwhile, the UNH poll shows upside down approval for Bass and Guinta.

Both of these races are winnable.

So much of this is dependent on where the Citizens United money goes.  Last cycle NH-01 was an epicentre of shadowy outside money.  Adding to that was the NRCC making it their top spot in the entire northeast, while the DCCC was MIA.

With a presidential race going on and no NH-Sen race from above in 2012, it will be different.  But how is the key question.

birch paper; on Twitter @deanbarker

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by: Dean Barker @ Thu Jul 21, 2011 at 22:46:58 PM UTC

Good points, Dean. (4.00 / 2)

And way too early to handicap, but incumbents rarely get a higher actual vote total than what the polls show.  There are some critics of the incumbent rule, but it's held fairly accurate for quite some time.

Neither incumbent has much to celebrate in this poll.  I wouldn't trade hands - I'd play the ones we have.

In the immediate aftermath of Since the start of the financial crisis, the Fed/Treasury lent, spent, or guaranteed $28 $29 trillion to save the banking system.

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by: StraffordDem @ Thu Jul 21, 2011 at 23:02:48 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

1000x yes. (0.00 / 0)

incumbents rarely get a higher actual vote total than what the polls show

We've been going through a period of heavy anti-incumbent numbers.

It was not too long ago the >50% would set alarm bells ringing for incumbents.

birch paper; on Twitter @deanbarker

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by: Dean Barker @ Thu Jul 21, 2011 at 23:15:43 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Wish I could agree (0.00 / 0)

With all the publicity surrounding the Ryan budget ,the House Republican extremism and the debt ceiling crisis, Congressional R's should be way down in the polls. They are not. They're never going to look worse to most people than they do right now.

Despite all their massive blunders,heartlessness and intractability,they are still back on top in national and local polls. TPM poll has them back in the lead nationally by about 4 points. They were down during the Ryan budget votes but have quickly bounced back.

What's the explanation for this? My take is the Congressional Dems are generically perceived as so weak and ineffectual that swing voters feel more comfortable with Repub even when Repub's are acting like jackasses. We like our politicians to sound principled even when they have none.

""The more (money)one has, the more one wants.""


/Benjamin Franklin.

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by: susaninrindge @ Thu Jul 21, 2011 at 23:06:05 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I am puzzled too. (0.00 / 0)

What's the explanation for this? My take is the Congressional Dems are generically perceived as so weak and ineffectual that swing voters feel more comfortable with Repub even when Repub's are acting like jackasses. We like our politicians to sound principled even when they have none.

But I don't think this is the reason, bad principles should be a liability. Maybe there is a perception that Democrats are not taking the deficit seriously? As the party of "government", Democrats are not looking good these days as the recession drags on.  

whp

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by: whp @ Fri Jul 22, 2011 at 00:12:33 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

"They're never going to look worse" (0.00 / 0)

I would be interested in seeing how many likely voters know what "the Ryan budget" is. I have always figured that the problem for Charlie and Frank isn't the immediate reaction to their vote - it's the ads that will come in October 2012, and be fact-checked TRUE, saying they voted to dismantle Medicare.

And there's a real chance that, come August 3rd, Social Security and government contractor checks will stop because they stonewalled on the debt ceiling. That will make them look a LOT worse to a LOT of people.

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by: elwood @ Fri Jul 22, 2011 at 00:36:41 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Enough people knew about Ryan's voucher plan for Medicare (0.00 / 0)

That it registered in polls that have consistently given the edge to Republican Congress for 2 years. For the month following Ryan's plan announcement the polls flipped. So a lot of people got that message.

Bass is now trying to cover up his allegience to Koch, et al. He recently voted against their interest on an environmental bill (sorry, details in last week's LTE, Ledger/Transcript). I think he's going to work hard from now until 2012 election to demonstrate his "independence."  So I stand by my statement about them never looking worse than they do now.

""The more (money)one has, the more one wants.""


/Benjamin Franklin.

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by: susaninrindge @ Fri Jul 22, 2011 at 12:38:38 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Lots of optimism in this poll. (4.00 / 2)

Haven't had time to look at the cross-tabs, but I'm assuming a fair PPP poll.

Bass is toast.  Upside down favorables and doesn't hit 45% as an incumbent - plus 15% undecided.  I'm eager to see Q3 fundraising numbers for Charlie with numbers this bad.

CD 1 is more conservative.  We know that we have to work harder and get our voters out.  If it were our seat and our Congressperson had Guinta's numbers, I'd be very worried.  He's breaking even on his favorables, but just barely, and it's quite possible that he's still underwater with such a high margin of error.  And you have to figure that all the talk about R prez candidates has to be worth a couple of points to him in this poll.

I like our chances.  It's mid-summer and no one is paying attention.  I've been in the field a fair amount and can say with certainty that very few people know what's going on.  When I say very few, I'm talking about fewer than 10%.

The whispering and rumors are all part of the game.  There's a person or two who would love to see CSP stumble so that they can seize an opportunity.  What's new?


In the immediate aftermath of Since the start of the financial crisis, the Fed/Treasury lent, spent, or guaranteed $28 $29 trillion to save the banking system.

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by: StraffordDem @ Thu Jul 21, 2011 at 22:54:38 PM UTC

What's with the teeth gnashing? (4.00 / 7)

Each incumbent is at less than 50%, and the election is over a year away.  These numbers are okay. Yes, work to do, and the races won't be easy, but I have found the polls so far encouraging.




"When you get to the end of your rope, tie a knot and hang on."  Franklin D. Roosevelt    

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by: Kathy Sullivan 2 @ Thu Jul 21, 2011 at 23:46:48 PM UTC

Kathy and Lucy have it--get to work and be smart (0.00 / 0)

For heaven's sake, elections are won by hard work. Now is the time to build infrastructure so we're ready when GOTV arrives.

I'm already working on a list of 300 voters here in Raymond. If you want to see the best Dem list on Earth work with the Obama Campaign. It will pay off no matter who you are supporting ( in my case CAROL SHEA-PORTER.

They are much less protective of the list because he only needs it one more time.

Write letters make phone calls, be smart.

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by: Chaz Proulx @ Fri Jul 22, 2011 at 14:36:00 PM UTC