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ARG: Obama 51 McCain 39, Shaheen 54 Sununu 40

by: Ray Buckley

Wed Jun 18, 2008 at 18:08:59 PM EDT
(It's ARG, so take it with a HUGE grain of salt, but still, let's hope this starts to puncture the false MSM narrative that McCain has NH in the bag. - promoted by Dean Barker)

http://www.americanresearchgro...

Today ARG released a poll (I know, I know but hey what the heck - this one at least makes me smile).

Update (Dean): More good news (again recognizing that it's ARG we're dealing with here) from the poll:

Obama leads McCain 53% to 38% among independent voters (38% of likely voters).

...43% of likely voters say they would never vote for John McCain in the general election and 25% of likely voters say they would never vote for Barack Obama in the general election.

In the race for US Senate in New Hampshire, Jeanne Shaheen leads John Sununu 54% to 40%, with 6% undecided. Shaheen leads Sununu 53% to 38% among independent (undeclared) voters.

(Title revised by me as well).
Ray Buckley :: ARG: Obama 51 McCain 39, Shaheen 54 Sununu 40
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ARG: Obama 51 McCain 39, Shaheen 54 Sununu 40 | 11 comments
Of course. . . . (0.00 / 0)
ARG also had McCain losing to Bush in the 2000 primary (he won by 20).  

Let's hope Dick Bennett learned how to poll during the past eight years.

ARG's track record this cycle (4.00 / 1)
has been among the worst, IIRC, so I'm not holding my breath.

But I refuse to believe that there is some kind of unique affection NH Repubs have for McCain, so I'll take it.

McCain won here in 2000 because he was "not Bush".  And he won here in 2004 because people here didn't like Romney or Rudy the more they saw them.

He's a choice by subtraction, imho.

[ Parent ]
I beg to differ re: McCain. . . . (0.00 / 0)
In 2000, McCain was more than "not Bush".  He cleaned up among independent voters, a significant plurality of whom chose to vote for him rather than Gore or Bradley.

John McCain is an appealing personality -- one who has effectively leveraged his military heroism, rare bouts of political independence, and relationship with the press to carve out an undeserved "straight shooter" image.  He is the toughest Republican out there, and, imho, we will have our hands full this fall.

McCain may be a "choice by subtraction" for conservative Republicans, but evidence suggest that this is not true for the overall electorate.  (I hope I'm wrong.)

[ Parent ]
My prediction...for what it's worth (4.00 / 1)
IMHO, McCain beat Bush here in 2000 because he was seen as the Maverick, non-party-line Republican. I know many dems & indies who liked him, if they didn't vote for him, and considered him "not so bad, for republican."  He appealed to that Libertarian streak that is so part of the NH culture.

He's effectively ruined that rep now, and I predict Independents are so soured by his support of Bush and the war that Obama will easily win NH, taking the down ticket candidates with him!  

And that's not even counting the JILLIONS of new registered voters the NHDP has been (and will be) racking up!

Paula M. DiNardo
Dover NH

A Blue Hampster since 2007!


[ Parent ]
John McCain 2008 (0.00 / 0)
"Not your father's John McCain."
[ Parent ]
And looky here (0.00 / 0)
EJ Dionne of the Washington Post agrees with us:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/...


Paula M. DiNardo
Dover NH

A Blue Hampster since 2007!


[ Parent ]
the next rasmussen (0.00 / 0)
poll should be out in a week or so.. will be interesting to see what the trend shows. They have been here every month since Feb.

Hope > Fear



Create a free Blue Hampshire account and join the conversation.
Obama got significantly more votes in January 08 than did McCain. (0.00 / 0)
But I'm glad the national media still thinks New Hampshire is in love with McCain.

That means Obama's general election victory will be all the sweeter when the talking heads remark, "He even beat McCain in New Hampshire! New Hampshire! It's almost like beating him in Arizona!"

Heh. (4.00 / 1)
And he may indeed beat him in Arizona.
[ Parent ]
Oh happy day. (0.00 / 0)

[ Parent ]
and Quinnipiac (0.00 / 0)
https://quinnipiac.edu/x2882.x...
Good polster, good numbers...
ARG: Obama 51 McCain 39, Shaheen 54 Sununu 40 | 11 comments
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