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New UNH Poll: Voters Undecided

by: Ray Buckley

Mon Sep 22, 2008 at 18:01:44 PM EDT


WMUR / Granite State Poll
The University of New Hampshire

MCCAIN WITH SLIGHT NH EDGE, MANY VOTERS UNDECIDED

DURHAM, NH  John McCain has regained a slight lead over Barack Obama in the
race for President in the swing state of New Hampshire.  But many voters
remain undecided and many more say they could change their minds between
now and the election.  The most important issue to voters continues to be
jobs and the economy.

These findings are based on the latest WMUR / Granite State Poll, sponsored
by WMUR-TV and conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey
Center.  Five hundred fifty (550) randomly selected New Hampshire adults
were interviewed by telephone between September 14 and September 21,
2008.  The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/-4.2%.  Included
was a subsample of 523 likely November voters (margin of sampling error,
+/-4.3%).

Although New Hampshire has only 4 votes in the Electoral College it will be
a battleground state in the November election.  Currently, Arizona Senator
John McCain holds a small lead over Illinois Senator Barack Obama.  In the
most recent Granite State Poll, 47% of likely voters say they plan to vote
for McCain, 45% say they will vote for Obama, 1% prefer some other
candidate and 7% are undecided.

For complete press release and detailed tabular results, please click:
http://www.unh.edu/survey-cent...

Andrew E. Smith, Ph.D.
Director, The Survey Center
Assoc. Professor of Political Science
G05 Huddleston Hall
University of New Hampshire
Durham, NH 03824
603.862.2226
603.862.3877
www.unh.edu/survey-center

Ray Buckley :: New UNH Poll: Voters Undecided
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FYI: Party breakdowns, registered voters: (4.00 / 3)
Actual, per Bill Gardner, Aug 2008:
D: 30.5%, R: 31%, U: 38.5%

UNH poll, Sept 2008, registered voters:
D: 25%, R: 33%, U: 42%



Unbelievable. (4.00 / 1)
And of course, the poll will be the breathless news all over the state media tomorrow.

Fine. That'll make Obama's decisive NH win all the more satisfying.

birch, finch, beech


[ Parent ]
Lots Of Minds Up For Persuasion, And Changing. (0.00 / 0)
The UNH polls, bless Andy Smith, haven't proved to be that reliable of late, but even if this one is -- and we know the race is close -- there are lots of minds up for persuasion, and changing.  

Polls will jump all over and until about 72 hours before Election Day they'll be as reliable as the polls done in 2006, which didn't indicate the swelling of support for Democrats until about 72 hours before Election Day then.  

Our job in the Seacoast is centering on presenting the Barack Obama/Joe Biden ticket as a way to address our economy, our enviroment, and health care.  Those are three topics on which the McSame/Failin' ticket is outclassed.  


2004 (4.00 / 2)
In the first week of October, 2004, Bush led Kerry by five percent in the UNH poll. Keep working!  

Energy and persistence conquer all things.


Benjamin Franklin


 


We'll only work harder (0.00 / 0)
Andy Smith is one of my professors and one of the best I've had in college.  I don't think anyone knows the numbers better than him and he  is very astute in warning (his students, at least) that polls at this point are not very indicative of the outcome.  NH is a very tough state to poll and it is likely that we'll see the numbers flip/flop up til Nov. 4th.

Any poll stating that the race is as close as one unscientific percentage point shows that it really is a tossup and shows the extreme urgency that we have to take in order to win this race.  We must not become complacent or removed in any way.  



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