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UNH has their latest poll out, this time splashed across the Globe. The "J-Team" is getting pwned:
Jeanne Shaheen: 49%
John Sununu: 36%
undecided: 13%
Carol Shea-Porter: 44%
Jeb Bradley: 39%
undecided: 14%
Paul Hodes: 51%
Jennifer Horn: 25%
undecided: 24%
John Lynch: 67%
Joe Kenney: 17%
undecided: 15%
Conducted: 10/18-10/22, Sample size: 725 (statewide; presumably CDs are half that), MoE +/-3.5
As we've said repeatedly here, UNH does not weigh their sample for party affiliation, a practice that can create unnecessary volatility in the trendlines. For an example of it in action, check out the accompanying graph in the Globe - it's a roller-coaster.
So this time it looks like it's swung on our side. While I firmly believe we are going to win every one of these races, I personally don't trust these margins, though at least the sample size is larger than the previous polls statewide (725). That's still too small for the two CDs, though, if we presume those numbers are half that for the Hodes and Shea-Porter races.
My takeaway: don't trust these numbers in detail, do trust the overall impression that we have the advantage, do continue to work your heart and soul out to change our country. Canvass, phonebank, visibility, donate, write LTEs, talk to undecideds, drive people to the polls, vote.
