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Friends Don't Let Friends Poll Drunk

by: Dean Barker

Thu Oct 30, 2008 at 05:50:37 AM EDT
I was going to start analyzing the UNH tracking poll yesterday, as it was the third day of results.  Stupidly, I thought that the daily nature of the tracking would overcome the failure to attend to party ID and the absurdly small sample size of the CD races.

But after I saw that Carol went from an 11 point to a 2 point lead in one day, and that, true to form, the sample was tiny, and the poll oversampled Republicans by four points or so, I just gave up.

I'm tired of cleaning up after polling accidents.  There is so much going on between now and election day that I really don't have the time.  It's just a great shame that it has such an effect on the CW in this state, and beyond. And it's really a crime that I have to spend a good portion of my day offline and on putting out fires from incredulous people who unknowingly put their faith in the numbers they see on WMUR and go, "Wow, Obama's going to win by that much?" or "Whoa, Jeb can pull this out!"

Concord Monitor, if you are reading this: thank you for choosing R2K for your polling. I have been really struck with the attention they have given to reality-based demographics. And if I had the money I would be commissioning them myself.

So the long and the short of it is, if you're wondering about the lack of analysis or posting on UNH polls from now until Tuesday from me, that's why.  
Dean Barker :: Friends Don't Let Friends Poll Drunk
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Friends Don't Let Friends Poll Drunk | 4 comments
I was dumbfounded (0.00 / 0)
For a tracking poll to report one candidate (Carol, in this case) up by 8 points on one day, 13 the next and 2 the next and offer no explanation other than "then race is tightening" is hard to fathom.  And for the Obama number to be such an extreme outlier....

Very confusing.  Very, very confusing....

The number of Dems and Reps keeps changing wildly (0.00 / 0)
and Kathy noticed that Cheshire County was heavily polled one day, and Manchester the next.

Some of this is "normal": different profiles of people answer their phones on different days. But Andy Smith puts out press releases that completely ignore the differences in who got polled, and attributes the changes to "the race tightening" or "new momentum."

We've been highlighting this issue whether the polls are up or down.

Statistics (0.00 / 0)
Maybe things have changed in the 30 or so years since I had statistics, but the one thing for which it is not possible to correct is the refusal rate and my understanding is that this is now over 90%. (At my house it is over 100%) You can correct for numbers of Rs and Ds, gays, city dwellers and on and on but if people self select to this extent it isn't even worth reporting the results.
We can never take anything for granted or ever give up! (4.00 / 1)
There have been great years and horrible years, there have been unexpected victories and unexpected defeats. In New Hampshire, the only thing that is true is that it is up to the voters. In the end they decide who they are voting for or if they are voting at all.

All we can do is stay on the streets, stay on the phones and work because every minute is a gift to change the world, give our country a new direction and give our state new hope for a better tomorrow.

My only observation about the polls is that it may cause the otherside to commit unthinkable wrongs in an attempt to influence the outcome. Otherwise, the polls are meaningless to me.

We should never take anything for granted or every give up.

My motto is "Leave No Democrat Behind" - let's win them all!

Have you written a letter to the editor today? Have you donated today? Have you put up signs? Have you made calls? Have you talked to your neighbors?

Friends Don't Let Friends Poll Drunk | 4 comments

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