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(Here's hoping someone will poll New Hampshire someday. Oh well, maybe next cycle. - promoted by Dean Barker)
Well, so much for hoping for a pollster who can come close to matching New Hampshire's demographics in their results. The usually-reliable PPP just put out another poll of Cloud Hampshire. Even there, Governor Lynch easily wins his historic fourth term.
The criticism of this one is simple. 28% Democrats. 37% Republicans. PPP is giving Republicans a 9% edge, when the actual Republican edge is, as has been noted repeatedly this election cycle, 0.6%. In a state that voted for President Obama by an easy ten point margin, PPP surveyed people who voted McCain by 2. While it's not so pronounced as the also-flawed UNH poll, PPP still undersampled voters in the 18-29 group, with 10% whereas, for example, in 2004 that age range was 16% of the electorate. And, of course, PPP does not appear to have polled cell phone voters.
PPP is doing one last big weekend of polling before the election, and the top THREE finishers in the poll get one last check-in. Get over there and freep that poll! Let's get New Hampshire some reliable numbers, not the UNH crap!
A: This is easy to see, thanks to the Union Leader devoting it's front page real estate to a big font notice of the latest Rasmussen poll (I saw it at the check-out counter at the grocery store).
Rasmussen, which is to polls what FAUX News is to actual journalism.
Meanwhile, the most recent poll in the Land of Reality shows John Lynch with a commanding lead.
(Welcome to the general election, Kelly! - promoted by Dean Barker)
PPP just released the latest polling on the New Hampshire Senate race, showing Paul Hodes well within striking distance of Kelly Ayotte. With a 2.2% MoE, this puts Paul Hodes into a statistical tie with the notorious Ayotte.
Notably, Ayotte's unfavorables have doubled since April while her favorables have held steady with about 35% of the state actually approving of her. As PPP noted, this poll also reports a tie between McCain voters and Obama voters thanks to a very low response rate from Democrats and a very high response rate from Republicans (which is fairly understandable around primary season - the only Democratic race of any note was the Kuster/Swett race, while Republicans had both Congressional districts competitive, the Senate competitive, and the governor's race competitive).
Republicans can't get their enthusiasm any higher; they've maxed out. Democrats need to get engaged! GOTV, GOTV, GOTV!
More (Dean): From PPP:
The competitiveness of her primary forced Ayotte to do things she might have been able to get away with skipping if she'd had an easier path to the nomination. For instance her Sarah Palin endorsement proved critical in surviving with a small victory last night, but 52% of general election voters say Palin's support is a turn off with only 18% of them saying it's a positive. Her having to move to the right in the primary has already hurt her overall image with New Hampshire voters and could prove to become even more of a liability in the general election.
How many times do we have to say it: Sarah Palin is a total drag on the NH ticket.
Kelly Ayotte does only one point better against Paul Hodes than Ovide Lamontagne.
I may not agree with Lamontagne on... well, pretty much anything, probably, but there's no denying that he's demonstrated over the years that he's firm in his Republican partisan beliefs. Ayotte made her own trouble here by trying to leave herself undefined and let people project conservatism or moderation on her. Only now that she's got a serious primary battle has she started running ads claiming the conservative mantle.
Neither one would cast many votes I'd be terribly happy with, but I'd at least believe Lamontagne has a reason for his beyond 'because Mitch McConnell told me to.'
PPP will release the rest of the results on Wednesday, after the primary voting is concluded, so keep your eyes open.
PPP's latest polling in NH had a better margin of error than UNH, stole UNH's narrative setting thunder to some extent, and had the right-wing crying foul over the twin realities that Hodes is actually a lot closer to Ayotte than they want to believe, and that Sarah Palin is a general election albatross.
All of which is going to make today's news that Daily Kos has decided to go with PPP for new polling perfect future fodder for my new Shrill of the Day seies.
Of course, PPP is one of the most credible and accurate pollsters out there, but that's not going to temper the shrill.
Shorter Monitor Editorial: Maybe if we twist ourselves in knots, pretend general election matchups don't matter while bashing one of the last credible polling outfits out there, ignore other polls from 2010, from 2008, early NH-Primary 2012 matchups, and even evidence from our own paper, we can convince our readers that Joe McQuaid doesn't deserve time on CNN.
That I would spend a single byte defending Joe McQuaid is a testament to the spectacular fail of that editorial. That, and the fact it's being used as fodder by Conservatives4Palin.
Public Policy Polling is going to be polling New Hampshire this weekend and they're looking for suggestions on what questions to poll. If you have some opinions on the matter, get over there and share them!
