About
Learn More about our progressive online community for the Granite State.

Create an account today (it's free and easy) and get started!
Menu

Make a New Account

Username:

Password:



Forget your username or password?


Search




Advanced Search


The Masthead
Managing Editors


Jennifer Daler

Contributing Writers
elwood
Mike Hoefer
 susanthe
 William Tucker
ActBlue Hampshire

The Roll, Etc.
Prog Blogs, Orgs & Alumni
Bank Slate
Betsy Devine
birch, finch, beech
Democracy for NH
Live Free or Die
Mike Caulfield
Miscellany Blue
Granite State Progress
Seacoast for Change
Still No Going Back
Susan the Bruce
Tomorrow's Progressives

Politicos & Punditry
The Burt Cohen Show
John Gregg
Krauss
Landrigan
Lawson
Pindell
Primary Monitor
Primary Wire
Scala
Schoenberg
Spiliotes
Welch

Campaigns, Et Alia.
Paul Hodes
Carol Shea-Porter
Ann McLane Kuster
John Lynch
Jennifer Daler

ActBlue Hampshire
NHDP
DCCC
DSCC
DNC

National
Balloon Juice
billmon
Congress Matters
DailyKos
Digby
Hold Fast
Eschaton
FiveThirtyEight
MyDD
The Next Hurrah
Open Left
Senate Guru
Swing State Project
Talking Points Memo

50 State Blog Network
Alabama
Arizona
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
Florida
Georgia
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Missouri
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
New York
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Texas
Utah
Vermont
Virginia
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin

Penn Schoen on NH-01: CSP in MoE, Guinta Sub-50%

by: Dean Barker

Wed Oct 20, 2010 at 20:10:35 PM EDT
The Hill continues its 2010 midterm polling. It's a small sample, but it's still bigger than UNH's.  And the results make me more suspicious than ever that the UNH sample is so far out into Cloud Hampshire that it's not worth anything:
Carol Shea-Porter:    42%
Frank Guinta:            47%
Undecided:                9%

407 "likely voters," MoE 4.9%, 10/9-10/12

The poll ended over a week ago, just before the NHPR Guinta expose started filtering into the larger state media bloodstream. Pair that fact with this:
However, 20 percent of voters said they aren't familiar with Guinta, while only 4 percent said that of Shea-Porter, who is the first woman to be elected to national office from New Hampshire.

We can win this race, folks. Don't let those presidential drop-off voters get away.  Remind everyone that there is an election going on! Most of all, remind them about Carol's relentless focus on the "rest of us," and Guinta's refusal to prove that $355,000 dollars he put into his campaign is legal. We need those 20% of voters to learn all about Frank Guinta.
Dean Barker :: Penn Schoen on NH-01: CSP in MoE, Guinta Sub-50%
Tags: , , , , (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email
Penn Schoen on NH-01: CSP in MoE, Guinta Sub-50% | 10 comments
GOTV will be critical - (4.00 / 1)
especially with young voters.  Carol leads Guinta by 45 points among young voters in this poll.  


"Physical concepts are free creations of the human mind, and are not, however it may seem, uniquely determined by the external world." A. Einstein
GOTV will be critical - (0.00 / 0)
especially with young voters.  Carol leads Guinta by 45 points among young voters in this poll.  


"Physical concepts are free creations of the human mind, and are not, however it may seem, uniquely determined by the external world." A. Einstein
cell phones vs. land lines n/t (4.00 / 1)


for transparency sake ~I represent Union print shops
[ Parent ]
how about a textbank? n/t (4.00 / 1)


for transparency sake ~I represent Union print shops
[ Parent ]
No crosstabs. (4.00 / 1)
I'm automatically suspicious of any poll that doesn't put out its crosstabs. If the previous UNH poll  hadn't revealed theirs, we wouldn't have seen how there was a 10% male/female disparity propping up Bass, and if the last one hadn't revealed theirs we wouldn't have seen that they were giving Guinta a 15% partisan turnout edge to produce a 12% lead. This one is better than the UNH poll for toplines, but the lack of transparency and the high MoE both make me uncertain.

The only bit I can specifically point to is the age groups. If 'young' voters are going for Shea-Porter by 45 and 'older' voters are going for Guinta by 1, there has to be some weird breakdown in how many of each group they polled.

Only the left protects anyone's rights.

Heading up to Manch on Saturday (4.00 / 3)
Campaign vacation, baby!
I just heard this line on NPR (0.00 / 0)
"Since 2006 Smith's poll has been accurate in predicting control of the NH State House"

Wow. Since 2006? you mean it was right in both 2006 AND 2008? On a 50/50 bet? That's some poll!



In related news. . . . (4.00 / 2)
When I tied my shoelaces this morning, I accurately predicted that my shoe would not fall off my foot.

[ Parent ]
frankly (0.00 / 0)
in 2006 the only person I know who predicted 14 in the State Senate was Bob Quinn. Free Bob!

for transparency sake ~I represent Union print shops
[ Parent ]
Ran Into (4.00 / 1)
Jeb Bradley's campaign manager from 06 and 08 last night (she's working for Stiles for Senate) who described how she felt the next mornings, after both times polls had her man up.

Go Carol!!

No'm Sayn?

Penn Schoen on NH-01: CSP in MoE, Guinta Sub-50% | 10 comments

Connect with BH
     
Blue Hampshire Blog on Facebook
Powered by: SoapBlox