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Penn Schoen on NH-01: CSP in MoE, Guinta Sub-50%

by: Dean Barker

Wed Oct 20, 2010 at 20:10:35 PM EDT


The Hill continues its 2010 midterm polling. It's a small sample, but it's still bigger than UNH's.  And the results make me more suspicious than ever that the UNH sample is so far out into Cloud Hampshire that it's not worth anything:
Carol Shea-Porter:    42%
Frank Guinta:            47%
Undecided:                9%

407 "likely voters," MoE 4.9%, 10/9-10/12

The poll ended over a week ago, just before the NHPR Guinta expose started filtering into the larger state media bloodstream. Pair that fact with this:
However, 20 percent of voters said they aren't familiar with Guinta, while only 4 percent said that of Shea-Porter, who is the first woman to be elected to national office from New Hampshire.

We can win this race, folks. Don't let those presidential drop-off voters get away.  Remind everyone that there is an election going on! Most of all, remind them about Carol's relentless focus on the "rest of us," and Guinta's refusal to prove that $355,000 dollars he put into his campaign is legal. We need those 20% of voters to learn all about Frank Guinta.

Dean Barker :: Penn Schoen on NH-01: CSP in MoE, Guinta Sub-50%
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GOTV will be critical - (4.00 / 1)
especially with young voters.  Carol leads Guinta by 45 points among young voters in this poll.  


"Physical concepts are free creations of the human mind, and are not, however it may seem, uniquely determined by the external world." A. Einstein

GOTV will be critical - (0.00 / 0)
especially with young voters.  Carol leads Guinta by 45 points among young voters in this poll.  


"Physical concepts are free creations of the human mind, and are not, however it may seem, uniquely determined by the external world." A. Einstein

cell phones vs. land lines n/t (4.00 / 1)


Annie 2012!

[ Parent ]
how about a textbank? n/t (4.00 / 1)


Annie 2012!

[ Parent ]
No crosstabs. (4.00 / 1)
I'm automatically suspicious of any poll that doesn't put out its crosstabs. If the previous UNH poll  hadn't revealed theirs, we wouldn't have seen how there was a 10% male/female disparity propping up Bass, and if the last one hadn't revealed theirs we wouldn't have seen that they were giving Guinta a 15% partisan turnout edge to produce a 12% lead. This one is better than the UNH poll for toplines, but the lack of transparency and the high MoE both make me uncertain.

The only bit I can specifically point to is the age groups. If 'young' voters are going for Shea-Porter by 45 and 'older' voters are going for Guinta by 1, there has to be some weird breakdown in how many of each group they polled.

Only the left protects anyone's rights.


Heading up to Manch on Saturday (4.00 / 3)
Campaign vacation, baby!

I just heard this line on NPR (0.00 / 0)
"Since 2006 Smith's poll has been accurate in predicting control of the NH State House"

Wow. Since 2006? you mean it was right in both 2006 AND 2008? On a 50/50 bet? That's some poll!




In related news. . . . (4.00 / 2)
When I tied my shoelaces this morning, I accurately predicted that my shoe would not fall off my foot.


[ Parent ]
frankly (0.00 / 0)
in 2006 the only person I know who predicted 14 in the State Senate was Bob Quinn. Free Bob!

Annie 2012!

[ Parent ]
Ran Into (4.00 / 1)
Jeb Bradley's campaign manager from 06 and 08 last night (she's working for Stiles for Senate) who described how she felt the next mornings, after both times polls had her man up.

Go Carol!!

No'm Sayn?



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