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A: This is easy to see, thanks to the Union Leader devoting it's front page real estate to a big font notice of the latest Rasmussen poll (I saw it at the check-out counter at the grocery store).
Rasmussen, which is to polls what FAUX News is to actual journalism.
Meanwhile, the most recent poll in the Land of Reality shows John Lynch with a commanding lead.
A: That's an easy one. When DiStaso rushes to report on (and link to) the new Ras "poll" before he can be bothered with mentioning (and not linking to) the PPP poll.
But here's the thing. Even the Union Leader and FAUX News' favorite narrative driver pollster can't do what it's supposed to do. Paul Hodes is still within the margin of error of that non-credible survey as well.
So there's a new poll out from GOP-pushing Rasmussen showing Hodes behind Ayotte.
Yawn. Yawn. And yawn.
Now leaving aside FAUX's favorite pollster, it seems likely that the race hasn't moved much since earlier polling. But there ain't no way I'm going to get worked up over Ras' margins.
Yet what has changed since then is that Hodes was out in front on Vermont Yankee and on health care reform. The base is slowly getting fired up. Once HCR passes, we'll be even more fired up.
So Scott Rasmussen has turned his attention to our little old senate race, and has Paul Hodes down by eight (yet still just within the margin of error).
I know I should get all excited. But instead my idle hands Googled around and found Singiser's fascinating take on how Rasmussen operates, which led to another take on the same theme, in which I also learned that the pollster once wrote for World Net Daily (current center of birtherism, inter alia), and shortly after was a conspicuous Social Security privateer.
More recently he has occupied his time denying lesbians civil union ceremonies on his boardwalk pavillion.
But to get back to the poll, and informed by what I have read about how Rasmussen frames their questions, I find it odd that on the page showing the poll questions, the wording of number three, which is the Hodes/Ayotte support one, is not listed. I wonder why?
Update: milfordmusings has a synopsis of what question 3 was like. Thanks!
I'm putting this post up for one reason only - so that it can mock us for the next four years if we don't do our part to get out the vote from now until Tuesday.
The wind is at our back. Here are six reasons to work like mad to capitalize on it:
Research 2000 (for the Monitor):
Barack Obama: 51%
John McCain: 44%
Jeanne Shaheen: 52%
John Sununu: 42%
Ken Blevens: 2%
Carol Shea-Porter: 49%
Jeb Bradley: 42%
Robert Kingsbury: 2%
Paul Hodes: 55%
Jennifer Horn 38%
Chester LaPointe: 3%
John Lynch: 64%
Joe Kenney: 32%
Survey USA:
Barack Obama: 51%
John McCain: 44%
Jeanne Shaheen: 53%
John Sununu: 40%
Strategic Vision
Barack Obama: 50%
John McCain: 41%
other: 2%
undecided: 7%
Jeanne Shaheen: 48%
John Sununu: 41%
undecided: 11%
Suffolk U (this one is a really interesting read on independents and women - someone tell Jennifer Donahue):
Barack Obama: 53%
John McCain: 40%
Jeanne Shaheen: 48%
John Sununu: 39%
Rasmussen (NH-Pres and NH-Sen):
Barack Obama: 51%
John McCain: 44%
Jeanne Shaheen: 52%
John Sununu: 44%
ARG (NH-Pres and NH-Sen):
Barack Obama: 56%
John McCain: 41%
Jeanne Shaheen: 53%
John Sununu: 41%
Pretty remarkable consistency among all six, no?
What methodologies and samples I could find are below the fold. As usual, R2K appears to be the most precise in sampling for party and demographics.
It positively rained New Hampshire polls today - I'm only just now catching up to them.
Let's start with the presidentials. Marist College has Obama leading, and with a good sample size of registered voters, and more so with leaners factored in:
70% of Obama's backers are excited about the candidates running for president while 49% of McCain's report they are enthused.
On to Rasmussen, which was the real (bad) surprise of the day, and unfortunately I have no access to their sample data without paying for it. First up, the presidentials have McCain ahead by a couple, mimicking the Faux Hampshire poll. A click at the link suggests that McCain has shored up his support among the GOP here (a result of Palin? I personally don't think so, but who knows?)
Obama 49%
McCain 47%
Sample size: 700. Conducted 9/23. MoE +/-4%
On to Ras' Senate poll, the real shocker of the day, so much so I can only believe we have an outlier on our hands here, especially given that just yesterday Shaheen was beating Sununu by four in a poll that oversampled Republicans by 7%, and ARG still has them worlds apart:
Sununu 52%
Shaheen 45%
Sample size: 700. Conducted 9/23. MoE +/-4%
Next up, Paul Hodes released an internal poll today to counter the sly NRCC poll taken right after Horn won the nomination (courtesy SSP):
Anzalone-Liszt for Paul Hodes (9/14-18, likely voters):
Paul Hodes (D-inc): 50
Jennifer Horn (R): 32
Chester Lapointe (L): 4
(MoE: ±4.4%)
Looks like not a whole lot to worry about there.
And rounding out the end, we come to the third, Congressional iteration of the WMUR/UNH Granite State Poll of Faux Hampshire, the land of 7% more Republicans than New Hampshire:
Rasmussen (which weighs for party affiliation) continues to show a clear lead for the former Governor, and the Sprinter once again falls well below the 50% incumbent danger zone
Shaheen 51%
Sununu 40%
With "leaners"
Shaheen 52%
Sununu 43%
Combined "very" and "somewhat favorable"
Shaheen 55%
Sununu 49%
Combined "very" and "somewhat unfavorable"
Shaheen 39%
Sununu 44%
Look for the local papers to cover this non-horesrace showing with as much breathless vigor as they did the summer UNH one < /snark>.
Two new polls out from Rasmussen today, which you can't spell with A,R, and G.
First up, Obama is crushing McMaverick in the state that supposedly loves him, 50 -39. Two interesting takeaways: putting Romney on the ticket hurts McCain, and putting Clinton on as Obama's Veep has no effect up or down.
And secondly, some beautiful news. Sununu is actually going down from his previously awful polls, 39 to Shaheen's 53. That's just insane.
OK - now let's get to work!
Addition by Mike: Excuse the Irrational Exuberance as I share this screengrab from pollster.com
With a 4% MoE, Rasmussen has pegged our senate race in pretty much the same spot again, with Shaheen 50% to Sununu 43%.
The Republicans have to defend so many senate seats this cycle, and the NH electorate (and the prevailing national mood) is in a much different place than in 2002. In this new environment, Sununu remains deeply vulnerable, consistently showing sub-50% marks. And as this quote from the pollster speaks loudly: "Shaheen has a fourteen-point lead among unaffiliated voters". She is capturing undeclareds, both a very good metric on the one hand, and indicative of where our undeclareds have been going when looking at the presidential primary on the other.
Here's a screen grab to give you an idea of Sununu's ceiling:
There's no doubt that this race will tighten, however. Which is why it's never a bad idea to give to the early Sununu retirement fund on ActBlue Hampshire.
"Sprinter" Update: Of course, the advantage of re-electing Sununu to the Senate is that we'll have a well-known face on the Hill working for us:
And just a few minutes ago Obama arrived - gasp - in the Senate! For a vote even! - and while his motorcade idled in the carriageway and he talked to press, good ol' Sen. Sununu came demurely walking up the driveway and the Cap Police demanded to see his ID.
He whipped it out "secret agent style," we're told. "I know he's down in the polls, but you'd think the cops would still recognize him until November," dished our witness, who also mentioned that seconds later Sen. Evan Bayh passed by without incident.
I noticed this last night while avoiding the debate. Rasmussen numbers in NH polling:
Hillary v McCainFeb + 2, Mar -6
Obama v McCain Feb+13, Mar -3
If the polling dates and patterns continue, we should soon see an April report which will show continued erosion of support for the potential Democratic nominees in our state.
NH's four electoral votes could provide the electoral margin of error needed to put a Dem in the White House.
Two questions:
How big can the polling deficit get before it is insurmountable?
Should NH "Supers" (publicly or privately) attempt to influence the process for a speedier decision?
ARG is out with a very favorable Poll for Jeanne Shaheen.
2008 US Senate
Shaheen Sununu Undecided
47% 33% 20%
Sununu is down 19(!) from December in this poll of 541 people. Shaheen is up 6, Undecided up 13.
Update (Dean): A couple of observations to add:
* This poll is from ARG. Please note that their track record for the presidential race this cycle has been downright dismal, and that it would be charitable to call their December poll showing Sununu significantly ahead an "outlier" given how the other polls looked at the time.
* Having said that, there are some interesting aspects to the numbers. First of all, ARG polled 221 undeclared voters compared to 162 Republicans and 158 Dems. Why they sampled so many undeclareds relative to their percentage of the voting electorate, I don't know. But what's interesting is that the larger sample size for them may make the following find more tenable: Undeclareds broke for Shaheen 61% to 13%, with 26% undecided. Even if every one of those undecideds tilted to John E., he still wouldn't be close.
That tells me that we are riding the wave of another "change" election, and possible a stronger wave than in 2006. And with the war in Iraq still going strong five years on, an economy in the toilet, nothing done on health care or climate change, I see no reason to doubt that premise. People are sick of Bush and his enablers like Sununu, and want change.
But that's not all. Rasmussen also came out with a poll today (h/t elwood) showing no change from their last tracking of this race in February. Shaheen is solidly defeating incumbent Sununu 49% to 41%, and keeping him well below the magic 50% number. Key findings:
In New Hampshire, Shaheen does very well among female voters, leading Sununu 51% to 36%. Men are evenly divided between both candidates. Shaheen also leads Sununu among unaffiliated voters 49% to 36%.
Sununu is viewed favorably by 48% of New Hampshire voters and unfavorably by 46%. Shaheen earns positive reviews 54% and negative feedback from 40%.
Again, note the wide discrepancy among undeclared voters.
We've got a long way to go until November, but with numbers like these, I agree with Kathy. It's time to pull out the Shaheen Poll Vault:
I think Democrats really need to understand that John Edwards is the most electable Democrat in the general election, which is why I'm writing this diary. I am no fan of polls, and I'm certainly no expert, and all of this data has been presented before by people like Michael 4 Edwards and Bruinkid, but I don't think that it's been presented in a comprehensive and easily readable way in one diary before, and this is what I'm attempting to do here.
There are a few reasons why I think that getting this information across is so important.
