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Economist Dennis Delay, forecast manager for the New England Economic Partnership addressed the new state unemployment numbers in the Telegraph:
The state's unemployment rate fell below 5 percent in April for the first time in 2.5 years.
However, Delay said one-third of the drop in unemployment over the past year is because of a decline in the overall labor force, not job creation. Usually, there are two reasons for that: People move out of the state or just give up on looking for jobs, he said.
"It's something that economists refer to as the discouraged worker factor," Delay said.
If the labor force hadn't declined, he said, the unemployment rate would still be about 5.3 percent.
Five men from the Bill O'Brien statehouse, including Paul Mirski and David Bates, wish to lower the dropout age to 16.
The national, seasonally adjusted jobless rate for high school graduates in January 2011 was 9.4% The employment-to-population ratio for this demographic was 54.6%.
The national, seasonally adjusted jobless rate for those with less than a high school diploma in January 2011 was 14.2%. The employment-to-population ratio for this demographic was 38.7%.
A look at the data shows a consistent 5% or so increase in joblessness between those who drop out of high school vs. those who earn a diploma.
Some prefer real-life stories to data:
Alyssa Ouellett, now a senior at an alternative high school program in Raymond, told lawmakers that, with a choice, she would have dropped out at 16. Ouellet said she went from failing all of her classes freshman year to getting all A's this year.
"If you guys pushed the age back to 16, it would be making a lot of kids make a lot of stupid decisions that won't help them in the future," she said.
What's that? You want to hear from a voice with more experience?
Gary Hunter, who works in dropout prevention in the Manchester schools. Hunter said he has "worked with at-risk kids, since I was an at-risk kid" and today supervises staff who offer a wide range of alternative educational programs. He said the law requiring students to stay in school until 18 forced schools to ask businesses what they looked for in workers and ask students what they needed to learn.
"It's kicked up the biggest reform movement I've seen in my 25 years in education," Hunter said.
It is heartening to see the Bill O'Brien statehouse finally focus on unemployment. But I don't think even Democrats expected them to focus on increasing unemployment.
(birched earlier, and with apologies to Mike Emm who - once again - beat me to it.)
Afghanistan. "Dusk was falling fast on the Korengal Valley. We were crouched on a shrub-laden plateau some 8,000 feet up in the mountains. The soldiers were exhausted and cold. We'd been sleeping in ditches for five nights. Insurgents were everywhere. . ."
"As our Black Hawk left us off, rockets and machine-gun fire echoed off the valley's walls. First Platoon on Honcho Hill was getting hit. I heard Lt. Brad Winn on the radio shouting. His boys needed help. Five were down. Captain Kearney radioed commands to his other platoon. 'Drop everything, cross that river, help your brothers. '"
"Snippets of information hung in the air. 'Urgent wounded Josh Brennan. 'Six exit wounds.' 'Needs a ventilator.' Kearney cursed and threw down his radio. 'Eckrode leg.' 'Valles leg.' 'Who is the K.I.A.?' 'I think it's Mendoza. . .'"
"Captain Kearney took a breath and told First Sgt. La Monta Caldwell: 'Brennan's probably going to die. I would go and hold his hand and pray with him.' Which is what Caldwell did." (New York Times, 11/13/10)
The Unemployed. "These people just can't find a job and many are out of unemployment insurance benefits, including construction worker Rick Reynolds. . . Government agencies and private charities lined up to help, but it's a whole new process for the long-term unemployed, not used to navigating through the charity process. . ."
"I thought, 'This is for poor people,' but all of a sudden now I'm poor. I thought it would never happen to me. But now it has. It's very humbling,' said Reynolds." (8NEWSNow.com, 6/29/10)
The Homeless. "For eight months, 71- and 78-year-old Beverly and Roger Maguire have been living in their small, four-door car. Beverly is handicapped and confined to a wheelchair after complications from knee replacement surgery two years ago left her unable to walk . . ."
"Right now, she can't even raise her left leg, which drags just above the ground as her wheelchair moves.. Her handicap, and her husband's inability to lift her any longer due to his own age and health issues, prevent Beverly from going over even the slightest step. . ."
"But as winter's cold weather nears, and the fear of heavy snow looms, the couple is afraid of the future. 'It's really getting frustrating. I'm so tired, I'm cold and I'm frustrated,' Beverly said. 'Tonight will be cold and I have no idea what we're going to do.'" (Portsmouth Herald, 12/05/10)
As we experience the most festive time of the year, a time of bountiful food, glittering decorations, warm homes, close family and good friends, we would do well to pause and remember those whose holidays are times of discomfort and anxiety. The young men and women overseas who daily put their lives on the line to preserve and protect the freedoms enshrined in our Constitution. Those who have lost their jobs as a result of the Great Recession. And the homeless who, buffeted by life's misfortunes, lack that which is the center of our personal universes - a home.
Some do more than just remember. They act on behalf of those for whom the holidays are difficult. Government agencies and private charities step forward to help, as do the Good Samaritans among us whose consciences are struck by the plight of others. "We were in front of McDonald's after getting some food and this man pulls up," (Beverly Maguire) said. "We had the window open, and he comes over and opens Roger's hand and says, 'I wanted to give this to you guys. I'm leaving for Florida. Best of luck.' Roger opened up his hand and it was a $100 bill." (Portsmouth Herald, 12/09/10)
Charles Dickens, the champion of the poor whose works enrich this season, said it best. "No one is useless in this world who lightens the burden of it to someone else."
The bad news is that NH's jobless rate halted its steady march downwards this month, staying at 5.4%, a number that is nonetheless the envy of the nation (thank you Governor Lynch and the departing Democratic majorities).
The good news is that in a year's time manufacturing jobs have gone up in the Granite State:
Aside from the financial service industry, which lost 1,500 jobs, there were gains in construction (1,500), professional and business services (4,300), leisure and hospitality (2,800) and manufacturing (3,100).
"That was unexpected," said Thibeault, of the manufacturing gain. "We've been shedding manufacturing jobs every year."
Thibeault said he had hoped that the job bleeding would stop, but he really didn't expect that some of those jobs would return at this point. That was a pleasant surprise.
When the president reached out to the GOP agreed to extend tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans for the next two years. he didn't quite win over Republican Senator Judd Gregg.
"I have reservations."
Gregg says the bill is too costly because its extension of unemployment benefits will increase the deficit, though he's leaning in favor of it.
That extending the Bush tax cuts to millionaires will increase the deficit isn't even a consideration. Extending unemployment benefits to folks who can't find work, now that's the problem, that's going to increase the deficit.
Today's Concord Monitor has a story about a woman named Karen Morgan who has just lost her unemployment benefits, because of the expiration of the federally funded extension program. She's 55 years old and has had several operations for breast cancer.
Tara Reardon, commissioner of the state's Department of Employment Security, said 4,700 people in New Hampshire have already exhausted all eligibility for unemployment compensation. Now that the program has expired, by the end of the year an additional 3,000 will be left without unemployment benefits and 9,000 more will lose benefits by April if the program is not reinstated by then, Reardon said.
The fastest growing segment of the homeless population is women over 50. A long term (over 6 months) unemployed person over the age of 50 may never find another job.
Here's what a NH Republican has to say:
Grant Bosse, a lead investigator with the Josiah Bartlett Center for Public Policy, a New Hampshire free-market think tank, said the government should find places to cut spending if it's going to extend unemployment benefits.
I'd sure like to hear him explain that to Karen Morgan. These are real lives being hurt by the Party of No. Every newspaper in the country should be telling these stories, every single day.
As I pick up the pace of work again, coming into the midterms, I have to get some stories cleared off the desk in order to make room for some others, and that's what we're about today.
We'll be talking about saving more than 300,000 of this country's most important jobs, and paying for it in a way that is not only good policy, but is a real problem for Republicans who are yelling "no new taxes!" once again while pretending they care about actually paying for actual spending and actually want to cut actual unemployment.
We have a bit of work to do today, but we want to keep it somewhat short...so let's get going.
"We are dealing with extremist, obstructionist, lying hypocrites who think you don't have to pay for tax cuts for the wealthiest but are holding up help for the neediest," Hodes told HuffPost during an interview at the Netroots Nation conference in Las Vegas. "Believe me, I understand the long-term deficit crisis. We gotta get to address it. To get there, we have to focus on the short-term jobs crisis we've got and support the fragile economic recovery we're in."
That's a view shared by many economists -- including Mark Zandi, a former adviser to Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) -- and by most registered voters, too.
Boy do we need Paul Hodes in the US Senate. Have you reached out to at least five "drop-off" Obama voters yet?
I know this is old news, but I'm going through 200+ emails since I left for a camping trip (nothing spells fun like "tornadic activity" experienced from a tent!), and I can't let this go by unseen.
Here's a segment (full release below the fold) from a floor speech given by Jeanne Shaheen on the real life consequences of not extending UI benefits.
I recently heard from Jo Ellen in Canterbury, New Hampshire about the plight of the unemployed. Jo Ellen was a high-ranking nurse with a graduate degree and a good job, until she was laid off to cut costs. She is in her 60's and has been working her whole life. Since being laid off, she has applied for dozens of jobs - from part-time to retail positions. She has cut back on her professional experience on her resume so that she's not ruled out for being overqualified. She always mentions that she is willing to accept any salary. But none-the-less, she has not been called to interview. Not once.
Jo Ellen wrote to me not only because her unemployment insurance will soon expire, but also because she is so troubled that she keeps hearing the politicians who voted against this extension say that people collecting unemployment are irresponsible or looking for a handout. She's not looking for a handout - she's looking for a job. And while we still face one of the most difficult job markets in history - where there are 5 applicants for every 1 job - we need to make sure people like Jo Ellen stay afloat.
There are millions of people across this country just like Jo Ellen. There are millions of people who need these benefits to prevent disaster.
You will remember that Judd Gregg was one of the scoundrels who made the (probably politically motivated) claim that if we extended unemployment benefits that the lazy jobless would basically stop looking for work.
I would also add that this story is Exhibit A on why raising the Social Security retirement age is wrong.
Robert Reich had a very good article in The Nation this past week. The former labor secretary pointed out that just before the Great Depression, income inequality had reached a zenith that could not support the economic system in the US. The richest 1% of Americans had accumulated 23.9% of the total income in the US, and, according to Reich, it was unsustainable. After the crash, through a series of progressive public policies, the disparity decreased until by the mid-70's, the top 1% had 8% to 9% of the income. Want to guess where we are today? Here's Reich from the article:
Consider: in 1928 the richest 1 percent of Americans received 23.9 percent of the nation's total income. After that, the share going to the richest 1 percent steadily declined. New Deal reforms, followed by World War II, the GI Bill and the Great Society expanded the circle of prosperity. By the late 1970s the top 1 percent raked in only 8 to 9 percent of America's total annual income. But after that, inequality began to widen again, and income reconcentrated at the top. By 2007 the richest 1 percent were back to where they were in 1928-with 23.5 percent of the total.
Well, that's going to put a crimp into the whole DEMOCRATS ARE DESTROYING NEW HAMPSHIRE'S ECONOMY!!1! meme Stephen and the gang keep trying to jumpstart.
CBS, which has actually been doing a decent job of covering the GOP's bizarre attack on the unemployed:
"It is a very painful thing to be unemployed," says Pink. "It's very humiliating and it's very humbling."
In January she was laid off from her job in a New York law firm. She's been constantly looking for work. Her $420 weekly unemployment check is the only way she can pay her rent. The checks end this month and she is angry that Congress did not extend her benefits, reports CBS News correspondent Ben Tracy.
"I've been paying taxes. I've helped the banks bail out and I figure now I need help. Why should I be overlooked?" she says.
We live in an upside down world.
The Banksters who caused this economic catastrophe get whatever they need to stay solvent.
The innocent victims, Mr. and Ms. Joe Taxpayer, won't get what they need to stay solvent. And nearly one of ten of them can't find work. And that's not counting the vast underemployed.
And even though the GOP in the White House, in the Senate, in the House, suffered their biggest defeat in my lifetime, they are the ones calling the shots. Just as they have been with their failed fiscal policy, with a slight reprieve now and then, for thirty years.
CW says (and yes, I think this is true even outside of dirty hippie land) that US Senate GOP nominee from Nevada Sharron Angle is a Crazy Person, for example:
"You can make more money on unemployment than you can going down and getting one of those jobs that is an honest job but it doesn't pay as much. We've put in so much entitlement into our government that we really have spoiled our citizenry."
And then you have Judd Gregg, whom CW dictates both here and nationally to be a Very Serious Person (He's even on the Catfood Commission, he's so Very Serious!), for example:
Because you're out of the recession, you're starting to see growth and you're clearly going to dampen the capacity of that growth if you basically keep an economy that encourages people to, rather than go out and look for work, to stay on unemployment.
So, what's the daylight between those two statements, anyway?
More than 1.3 million laid-off workers won't get their unemployment benefits reinstated before Congress goes on a weeklong vacation for Independence Day.
An additional 200,000 people who have been without a job for at least six months stand to lose their benefits each week, unless Congress acts.
As for the title of this post, how else am I supposed to interpret Gregg's rationale for stripping jobless benefits from the unemployed?
Because you're out of the recession, you're starting to see growth and you're clearly going to dampen the capacity of that growth if you basically keep an economy that encourages people to, rather than go out and look for work, to stay on unemployment.
Congratulations, Senator. You sure showed those lazybones. What we need in DC is more Stern Daddy Morality* just like you have displayed. "Cruel to be kind," "Why buy the cow when the milk's for free?", etc., etc...
* NB: Side effects of Stern Daddy Morality may include loaning out billions of dollars to failed Banksters.
During the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression, and unacceptably high levels of unemployment, Judd Gregg and the Republicans today prevented some Americans from receiving further jobless benefits.
Q: Senator Gregg, is there a point, you think, when the government has to sort of end these ever-continuing claims?
Gregg: Yeah, right now. This week, however, we're going to extend it again. And this has become counterproductive. We're basically undermining the cyclical event. Because you're out of the recession, you're starting to see growth and you're clearly going to dampen the capacity of that growth if you basically keep an economy that encourages people to, rather than go out and look for work, to stay on unemployment.
(NH's very own Marie Antoinette, multimillionaire, Vietnam deferred, legacy pol Judd Gregg, talks to his base, the banksters. What an embarrassment to the concept of public service. - promoted by Dean Barker)
Judd Gregg on CNBC:
Q: Senator Gregg, is there a point, you think, when the government has to sort of end these ever-continuing claims?
Gregg: Yeah, right now. This week, however, we're going to extend it again. And this has become counterproductive. We're basically undermining the cyclical event. Because you're out of the recession, you're starting to see growth and you're clearly going to dampen the capacity of that growth if you basically keep an economy that encourages people to, rather than go out and look for work, to stay on unemployment. Yes, it's important to do that up to a certain level, but at some point you've got to acknowledge that we're not Europe.
So much for the "Jim Bunning is a crazy loon unsupported by both parties" tradmed theme:
Lamar Alexander, John Barasso, Bob Bennett, Jim Bunning, Richard Burr, Tom Coburn, Bob Corker, John Cornyn, Mike Crapo, Jim DeMint, John Ensign, Mike Enzi, Judd Gregg, Orrin Hatch, Mike Johanns, Mitch McConnell, James Risch, Jeff Sessions and John Thune. Those are the guys who decided Tuesday night that Americans limping along on meager unemployment benefits apparently are, in the word chosen by Nevada Rep. Dean Heller, "hobos." They all voted against extending those benefits.
Truly monstrous.
I wonder what Kelly Ayotte's position is on this?
Adding: contrast the above with this Jeanne Shaheen quote I found by accident tonight:
"My father always said to me the best thing you can do is to give someone a job and make sure they are working," she said, emphasizing that too many New Hampshire residents are struggling. "That's at the foundation of everything."
Unemployment and COBRA benefits require an extension; they expire on Sunday. This is a fairly straightforward congressional process, particularly during a Great Recession where 20% of Americans are either unemployed or underemployed.
Straightforward, of course, unless there is a small, spoiled child masquerading as a Republican senator:
HuffPo: And when Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.) begged him to drop his objection, Politico reports, Bunning replied: "Tough shit."
...And at one point during the debate, which dragged on till nearly midnight, Bunning complained of missing a basketball game.
"I have missed the Kentucky-South Carolina game that started at 9:00," he said, "and it's the only redeeming chance we had to beat South Carolina since they're the only team that has beat Kentucky this year.
Thankfully, there are some peope in Congress working for the rest of us. Carol Shea-Porter:
The Department of Labor has estimated that up to 2.7 million Americans could exhaust their benefits by May 1 if an extension is not passed. For these individuals and families, the loss of a job is an emergency. Allowing the clock to run out on these benefits while the "emergency" nature is discussed in the Senate is unconscionable.
The red shows the increasing job loss suffered during George W Bush's last year in office, the blue the decreasing job loss during Barack Obama's first year.
It would be great if it could improve at a faster rate, but it is improving, which it would not be under the administration we would have had if Obama had not won.
