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New ARG Poll: Shaheen over Sununu, 57-29 | 25 comments
I don't WANT to be the wet blanket (0.00 / 0)
... I'm just drawn that way.

Something's wrong with this poll. Maybe it's just too early, but the results are too good. Thirty percent of Republicans won't vote for their party's most likely Senate nominee in a presidential election year? No way.

What percentage of Republicans (4.00 / 1)
voted for John Lynch in 2006? He won with 75% of the overall vote.
[ Parent | ]
I have no idea (4.00 / 1)
But non-presidential years are different, and governors' races are different. Why else did Massachusetts have Republican governors for 16 years?
[ Parent | ]
Here's what (0.00 / 0)
ARG reminds us with similar polling in 2002:

In October 2002: 10% of Republicans said they would vote for Shaheen and 85% said they would vote for Sununu. 86% of Democrats said they would vote for Shaheen and 8% said they would vote for Sununu. 45% of undeclared voters said they would vote for Shaheen and 46% said they would vote for Sununu.

Can anyone who follows polls tell me if 500 + change respondents is a good-sized sample, since we have back-to-back polls with around that number? It strikes me as modest, but not too small a size as to be unreliable. 

Wonder if Sununu's fired now.

[ Parent | ]
It's a good sample (0.00 / 0)
I think anything over 400 is a good sample, if the demographics are OK.

The issue with any poll is the screening. Are these likely voters? That's less of an issue in presidential years, because turnout is so much higher, but it's still an issue.

For example, Gore being the immediate frontrunner? I don't buy that either, not with a strong field ... but it's not my state.

[ Parent | ]
Bush Approval/Disapproval (4.00 / 1)
The fact that Bush's approval rating in New Hampshire in this poll is only 14% might have something to do with it.  When the Republicans actually have a nominee, other than Bush, the number might go up.
[ Parent | ]
Good point. (4.00 / 1)
It'll be funny watching the Sprinter stuck like glue to whoever the "I'm not Bush" nominee is.

Of course, so many of the Repub candidates are strong supporters of so many of W.'s policies, I wonder what will happen.

Wonder if Sununu's fired now.

[ Parent | ]
Shaheen's still not (4.00 / 2)
a real candidate and may be getting a little halo effect from people just remembering her fondly and thinking they like her better than Sununu.  Once she became a real prospect some might stray from her.  But better she get in with some time to make her case than that she get in already facing significant hostility.
[ Parent | ]
Yes, my one (major) criticism (4.00 / 2)
of this poll is the same one I had the last time back in March, i.e., that it's horribly unfair that we now have three candidates campaigning away, and communicating their message to anyone who will listen, fundraising and racking up endorsements, and ARG doesn't poll them, instead choosing to poll someone who will not even make a decision until September.

I think it is incumbent upon ARG to explain what they intend by polling Shaheen twice and no one else, or else they may face criticism from some quarters that they are doing Shaheen's or the DSCC's work for them.  It gives off a bad impression, whether it's a justified impression or not (and I have absolutely no way of knowing).

That said, the poll is still important news, imho.


Wonder if Sununu's fired now.

[ Parent | ]
I want to know too. (0.00 / 0)
This is my big question/problem with the ARG poll, especially in light of the Suffolk poll showing such low re-elect numbers for the sprinter.

It's great that the polled Shaheen, now how about everyone else?

[ Parent | ]
Not to Play Devil's Advocate, but. . . (0.00 / 0)
Shaheen is the only Democrat with substantial name recognition right now.  It is extremely early in the cycle:  Only insiders (like us) are paying attention, and Swett, Marchand, and Buckey have not yet had the opportunity to make their cases to voters.  Polling Buckey or Marchand would be like polling "generic Democratic candidate," whereas surveying Katrina (my choice) would glean more information about her husband's standing than her own.

The poll's greatest value is as evidence of Sununu's vulnerability.  But it clearly overstates its case, and no one should assume that this race is in the bag (or anywhere close).

[ Parent | ]
It doesn't "clearly overstate" (0.00 / 0)
given that the Suffolk University poll also showed Sununu with only 31% believing he "deserves re-election."

There's no point in looking at data if we immediately discount it because our gut says different.

But, agreed, everyone needs to campaign hard.

[ Parent | ]
I agree with Jim (0.00 / 0)
ARG has a sketchy polling history.  Jeanne is a strong candidate, but let's not delude ourselves:  NH is a purple state, not a blue one, and the Sununu family is 7-0 in general elections. 
[ Parent | ]
New ARG Poll: Shaheen over Sununu, 57-29 | 25 comments
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