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UNH: Ayotte Down Significantly, Hodes within MoE

by: Dean Barker

Wed Jul 28, 2010 at 19:51:12 PM EDT
My problems with UNH are legion, but it appears they are seeing the same decline in Ayotte's star that the PPP poll (with a better MoE) saw:

Kelly Ayotte: 45%
Paul Hodes: 37%
Undecided: 12%

Conducted: 7/19-7/27
Sample size: 504 "randomly selected NH adults"
Margin of Error +/-4.4%

She's under 50%, and her favorability has plummeted.

It's a shame this will get more state media play than PPP, but at least it is moving in the same direction.

We can win this race, ladies and gentlemen.
Dean Barker :: UNH: Ayotte Down Significantly, Hodes within MoE
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UNH: Ayotte Down Significantly, Hodes within MoE | 2 comments
Same result in a way (4.00 / 3)
The PPP poll showed Ayotte's lead going from 7 to 3. The UNH poll showed Ayotte's lead going from 15 to 8. In either case both are showing Ayotte's lead being cut in half. Also, the MoE was listed a +/- 4.4 for the full sample of 504 randomly selected results - but the percentages quoted are for the 446 'likely voters,' who had an MoE of 4.6. Also notably, in that 'likely voter' universe there were 112 registered Democrats, 127 registered Republicans, and 188 party-independent voters. The age distribution I'm not sure of either, with only 38 respondents under 34 years old. It's not the full Cloud Hampshire, but that definitely looks like an odd distribution.

Still, in either case: Ayotte's lead cut in half, within the MoE, and the vast majority of voters remain undecided. All without Ayotte showing any willingness to state her own positions, still.

IT for John Lynch '04 and NHDP '08 - I'm liking my track record so far!

No one fights harder than Paul Hodes. Nobody. (4.00 / 1)
Paul came back after losing to Bass by 20+ points. Does anyone really think that Ayotte scares him?
UNH: Ayotte Down Significantly, Hodes within MoE | 2 comments

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