Open Thread: The Sky is Falling

All praise The Invisible Hand! (4.00 / 1)

(oh, and we'll need some Invisible Handouts...)

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by: Douglas E. Lindner @ Sun Sep 14, 2008 at 22:55:17 PM CDT

From 538 (4.00 / 1)

I never heard of this guy Sean Quinn, but I suspect that he's on to something here, even if the headline is a bit absurd.

Dems Must Give Voters Explicit Permission To Like Palin

Because they already do. That ship has sailed. When facts are used to discredit Sarah Palin, emotion trumps facts. The instinct is to defend against the facts. Consider: you meet someone and like him or her on a gut level. A stranger - someone who doesn't have built-up personal credibility with you - gives you a list of reasons not to like that person. How do you react?

On an emotional level, you want them to be wrong, and you will take every possible favorable inference on the likable person's behalf. Using facts is pushing a big rock uphill. You might get it to the top with a few voters, but you're going to expend a lot of energy for only a little return.

There's a giant disconnect between all the gleeful Democratic claims of this or that magic bullet and the genuine, instant "Blink"-style emotional connection Palin has made with so many voters who see themselves in her. The Sarah Palin Phenomenon is not about facts - it's about an emotional gut reaction to someone who has charisma and reflects something essentially common and real about themselves.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com...

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by: JimC @ Mon Sep 15, 2008 at 09:27:25 AM CDT

We need to keep the pre-requisites low (4.00 / 2)

You shouldn't have to dislike or distrust Sarah Palin to vote for Obama.

You shouldn't have to admit you made a mistake voting for GWB to vote for Obama.

"A third Bush term!" and Palin stories are great for firing up Democrats, but they may be counterproductive in winning independents and swayable Republicans.

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by: elwood @ Mon Sep 15, 2008 at 09:42:31 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

But then again, Jon Stewart was right... (4.00 / 3)

During the Democratic National Convention, Jon was frustrated by the qualifying praise heaped on McCain by the leaders of our party.  He had an interesting precognition:

May I offer you a sentence you will not hear at the Republican convention?  "Barack Obama is heroic and American."

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by: Douglas E. Lindner @ Mon Sep 15, 2008 at 11:38:16 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Third, yes, Palin, no (4.00 / 1)

The third Bush term is not just good for firing up Democrats; it is also a good shorthand message for independents who disapprove of Bush's performance. Or, as Jon Stewart said to Huckabee, "so you are saying that your party is the best party to clean up the mess your party made?"  We need a short message to get past the clutter, and "more of the same" works very well.

On Palin, however, I agree with you. People still voted for George H. W. Bush even though he picked Dan Quayle.  McCain is the candidate, not Palin.  

"When you get to the end of your rope, tie a knot and hang on."  Franklin D. Roosevelt   [I'm an advisor to the NHDP Coordinated Campaign]

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by: Kathy Sullivan 2 @ Mon Sep 15, 2008 at 16:35:40 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

My misgivings about "Third Bush Term" (4.00 / 1)

1. There are a lot of voters who supported Bush in 2000 and/or 2004 who are reachable by Obama. If they have to say "Boy, I guess I screwed up" first - which a "Bush = BAD" theme demands - fewer of them will support him. We humans like to avoid confessing error - especially to ourselves.
2. Talking about "the third Bush term" demands that the audience think about the 2008 election in terms of the past. That is in conflict with a call to the future.
3. For voters who opposed Bush but are ready to support McCain, the "Third Bush Term" can be effective. But I don't think there are many such voters, and I think they can be reached more effectively with a positive message - or a strong anti-McCain message that finesses the question of whether he is a maverick and just shows that he is Wrong (on the economy, on Social Security, on minimum wage, on reproductive rights...)

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by: elwood @ Mon Sep 15, 2008 at 18:34:49 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Proof of a third bush term (0.00 / 0)

You ask is there proof of a third Bush term. Take a look at the Alaska Governors Office and how it runs. Like Bush 43 but ran by a "Hockey Mom."

You have to realize the strength of the Bush Adminstration is in Dick Cheney and his role in the Bush White House. With McCain being McCain, chances are good that Palin will run much of the White House and this government.

To ignore the choice of or downplay the choice of a Vice President in the 21st Century White House is going to be a miscalculation in my book. I know Sarah Palin is going to make sure she isn't ignored. Now a days the race to The White House is a team effort the Republicans sure know it and hit us with a round house right with it.  And now whose scrambling to counter it?

I'm actually hoping the economy gets worse so we might be able to use the issues to our advantage.

VALOR, n.  A soldierly compound of vanity, duty and the gambler's


hope.

- Ambrose Bierce from "The Devil's Dictionary"

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by: TJMCNH1 @ Mon Sep 15, 2008 at 22:37:29 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

No, I don't ask that at all. (0.00 / 0)

I ask whether that is a winning campaign theme.

I think McCain is indeed a continuation of the Bush regime - after all, when he went to sell his soul, they were the ones in the market. And Palin combines the personal corruption of Huey Long with the competence of J. Danforth Quayle.

But do you run on that? Maybe not.

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by: elwood @ Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 05:21:04 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

I Know Sean Quinn (4.00 / 4)

He's an old friend -- a Dartmouth '92 who served as hockey announcer and worked at the college radio station (with, among others, Grant Bosse).  

Sean worked as a lawyer after college, but quit his job and moved to Montana to campaign for Jon Tester.  (He helped to hook me on Brian Schweitzer's national potential.)  He was also an early -- and incredibly passionate -- Obama supporter.

Sean is also one of the smartest and most creative guys I know.  I don't always agree with him, but he invariably makes me think.

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by: Dartmouth Dem @ Mon Sep 15, 2008 at 18:09:37 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

The sky is overvalued (0.00 / 0)

Here's a thought on the financial crisis. Like our relationship with our oil suppliers, our relationship with Wall Street is dysfunctional. Where is Spitzer, when we need him? The great hope of Spitzerism was that he took on Wall Street for the den of thieves (hat tip to James M. Stewart) that it is.

Even before his disgrace, a Spitzer backlash was afoot. There were whispers, sometimes more than whispers, about his allegedly coercive tactics. Among his enemies -- who are LEGION, and have ALL the money -- these took on the air of fact. When Hank Greenberg of the aforementioned AIG defied Spitzer, he became a hero in the financial industry.

Bring back client number 9 -- bring him back chastened, wiser, and ready to fight. Have him quietly advising someone else, if that's what it takes. Bring back whoever the smart people on his staff were. Wall Street is out of control.

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by: JimC @ Mon Sep 15, 2008 at 10:01:13 AM CDT

"Chastened But Not Chaste" n/t (4.00 / 1)

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by: elwood @ Mon Sep 15, 2008 at 10:58:23 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Pale, rested and ready n/t (4.00 / 1)

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by: JimC @ Mon Sep 15, 2008 at 11:16:15 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Correction (0.00 / 0)

James B. Stewart -- I knew that didn't feel right, but I was rushing (stupid work).

Sorry Jim. Here's a book plug to make it up to you.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/D...

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by: JimC @ Mon Sep 15, 2008 at 12:17:18 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

"Hockey Moms for Truth" (4.00 / 1)

I heard a child ask her what is the difference between "icing" and "offsides." She didn't know.

How's McCain's "sense of humor" these days.

The giant finds its gait.

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by: Jack Mitchell @ Mon Sep 15, 2008 at 12:07:40 PM CDT

The Bush Years Completely Undone (4.00 / 5)

Well, for investors anyway.

On Election Day 2000, the last day before it appeared George W. Bush might have won the Presidency, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 10,952.18

Today, following an over 500-point drop, it closed at 10,917.51.

For comparison, before Bill Clinton won, the DJIA stood at 3,243.84, and was at the previously mentioned 10952.18 when the 2000 election took place.

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by: elwood @ Mon Sep 15, 2008 at 15:22:07 PM CDT

Here comes the sun (0.00 / 0)

Movement -- http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Not out of the woods yet, but McCain was over 270 yesterday on this site, and now he's dropped. I think JonnyB nailed it, he peaked too soon. Here we come.

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by: JimC @ Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 15:04:55 PM CDT

Not to sound presumptuous, because nothing comes easily, (4.00 / 1)

But I just don't see Obama losing Kerry states (not a generalization--NH, MI, MN, WI, PA, I just don't see it).

And after you sweep the Kerry states, keep in mind that '04 red state Iowa has Obama up 11 points in the latest Pollster.com average.

Also, in my thinking, Virginia will be close but break for Obama, kind of like Webb v. Allen.  I think that if there is a late-night nailbiter this year, it will be Virginia.

Kerry States + Iowa + Virginia = 272, electing Obama.

We might not get Virginia, let's not forget.  But there are plenty other swing states I haven't mentioned.

National polls are shiny-object journalism.  The electoral math is on our side.

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by: Douglas E. Lindner @ Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 19:09:32 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

EV is state-by-state polls (0.00 / 0)

... and multiple sources. My only beef is that they're a little inconsistent, I think deliberately, to heighten the drama. They go with the most recent poll in each state. 538 is better (see link on front page), but EV is nice and quick.

NH, for example, has flickered from light red to dark blue, per EV.

I highlighted this because yesterday -- I didn't look last week -- was the first time they showed McCain over 270. But today, he is not. And I am arguing, flimsily, that his GOP unity bounce is over.

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by: JimC @ Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 19:30:23 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

There's polls, there's what you read, there's what you know, and there is, last and generally least (except for Fox polls), your gut. (0.00 / 0)

And I'm firm in my prediction that, barring something big, like volunteers slacking off (nudge nudge) or donors holding out (elbow elbow), Obama will carry all 19 Kerry States including New Hampshire, he'll get Iowa, and I'll go out on a limb, the District of Columbia too.

The rest hangs in the balance.

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by: Douglas E. Lindner @ Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 22:40:34 PM CDT

[ Parent ]