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This shows the margin in each town - not the percentage. A big big town will look deep red or blue even if it was close percentage-wise; small towns are inherently faded colors.
The data is from the Sec State's web site; the map is from GIS data at the UNH GRANIT project.
After taking a look (here and here) to see how our two re-elected reps grew in strength from '06 to '08, I thought it might be a good idea to see how they fared compared to Jeanne Shaheen, the next step up on the ticket. It's an especially interesting question with the first election behind us in many years without straight-ticket voting.
With very few exceptions (Danville, New Boston, and Rindge), both Carol Shea-Porter and Paul Hodes gained higher vote percentages than Jeanne Shaheen in towns big and small, liberal and conservative, rural and urban.
Thus the Smartest Man (No Longer) in the Senate decreeth.
But to return to reality for a moment. Here's some political eye candy for the holiday, courtesy of Portsmouth Dems Judy Stadtman and William Tucker - three maps showing the D-R margins for NH-Pres for 2000, 2004, and 2008::
Many thanks to Judy and Will for doing all such tedious work in the service of such useful maps.
SATURDAY UPDATE: Here is a link to all the maps above, and more.
The Democratic party continues to do well in the state of New Hampshire because the values of Granite Staters are increasingly in concert with the values and votes of the Democratic party. Our fundamentals are strong.
Here are some numbers (taken from the nifty NYT graph) from the past three presidential cycles - 2000, 2004, 2008. The numbers for the first three columns represent the percentage totals for the Democratic nominee, and the color indicates who carried the county (blue=Democrat, red=Republican). The fourth column indicates the percent increase for Dems since 2000.
County
2000/Gore
2004/Kerry
2008/Obama
% Dem Gain
Belknap
40.0%
43.6%
50.2%
+10.2%
Carroll
41.3%
47.2%
50.7%
+9.4%
Cheshire
52.0%
59.1%
63.4%
+11.4%
Coos
45.0%
50.7%
58.7%
+13.7%
Grafton
47.3%
55.7%
63.4%
+16.1%
Hillsborough
46.8%
48.2%
51.3%
+4.5%
Merrimack
48.1%
52.2%
56.5%
+8.4%
Rockingham
45.9%
47.5%
50.0%
+4.1%
Strafford
51.4%
55.6%
59.8%
+8.4%
Sullivan
44.1%
52.4%
58.7%
+14.6
Notes:
* Some of you will object about using 2000 as a home base because of the "Nader" factor. My response to that is that this is a map of the advance of the Democratic party, not one of how liberal or conservative the state has become. If the Dems lost a significant percentage of voters in 2000 to Nader, that says to me that we did not reflect well enough the values on the left as well as on the right. Or to put it another way, our tent either wasn't big enough, or, perhaps more accurately, definitive enough.
* A glance at the difference between Coos and Rockingham should forever put to bed the twin mythologies of a 21st century Yankee Republican and the "Moonbats are moving up from Massachusetts to ruin my state" refrain. The most vigorous source of new GOP growth in this state comes from south of the border, while the real natives are firmly blue, having long past severed their link with a party that no longer bears any resemblance to them.
* Here's a surprise (or at least it was for me). Take a look at the progression of Grafton and Sullivan counties relative to Cheshire. I think the Upper Valley, which sits in both Grafton and Sullivan, can now claim to rival the Keene area for the strongest region for Democrats, population notwithstanding.
Today's NYT provides an introduction to the race. It pulls together the conventional wisdom: New Hampshire is moving strongly Democratic; Sununu is an engineer and one of the smartest people in the Senate; he has more cash and will use it for a big ad blitz after Labor Day.
The article seems to paint Sununu as a generic Republican, ignoring the right-wing extremism on issues such as Social Security and stem cells that is so far out of traditional Yankee Republicanism. Says Jennifer Duffy of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report: "He does constituent service. He shows up to work. He votes. He brings home the bacon. There are not a lot of inherent things wrong with John Sununu except that he is a Republican."
As we've pointed out here repeatedly neither Sununu nor Gregg "brings home the bacon." New Hampshire gets back only 67 cents of every dollar we send to DC, putting us in 48th place. And the NYT articles doesn't mention the phone jamming crimes that stunk up the 2002 race.
The Times wraps up its summary with a knowledgeable local observer, providing context for the polls:
...even without the straight ticket, Mike Caulfield, a co-founder of www.bluehampshire.com, a political Web site, said he expected Mrs. Shaheen to win."People kind of treasure their indecision," he said of New Hampshire residents. "They kind of hold on to it much longer than people in other places might. But if 2006 is any guide, the independents will break very hard for the Democrats."
Four years ago finding anyone willing to publicly admit to being a Democrat was a rather formidable exercise here in the Lakes Region of New Hampshire. Republicans controlled state government, with Gov. Craig Benson flitting about the state in his uniquely plated Hummer, a suitable symbol of his disdain for the people of New Hampshire and their fundamental ideals.
Senator Rob (I can't hear you, and even if I could I wouldn't listen so just shut up and go away!) Boyce of Alton, whose most memorable legislative initiative was an attempt to make it legal for high school students to bring firearms to school, was cruising to an easy November victory over a far more qualified and energetic Democratic candidate, Beth Arsenault of Laconia.
And here in Laconia, all five of its seats in the New Hampshire House of Representatives were easily captured by a covey of stalwart Republicans more known for their longevity of service than for advocating for their constituents.
My name is Nick Arancio, and I am running for NH Representative in District 5.
I invite you all to my website: http://nick4nhrep.com/index.html .
There you can learn about me and about some of the ideas I have. My campaign is all about ideas.
I would like everyone to review my ideas and provide feed back.
Forgive my picture, it was taken on my laptop's webcam. The previous picture was no better ;-)
Seriously, please take a few minutes and read it. If you want to start with my ideas, and skip the "who am I info", then here is that link:
http://nick4nhrep.com/html/pro...
Enjoy, I hope you like them, or at least see some potential. But, honest feed back is always best, so if you don't like them please tell me.
Update by Laura: Also see NH Ex-pat's diary about the event.
So, today, I got up ridiculously early (six, but ridiculously early for a college kid, okay, =P) to go pick up my girlfriend in Manchester and drive an hour to Sunapee to take a shuttle to Unity. What followed was one of the best experiences of my life. Report and pics below the fold!
(It's ARG, so take it with a HUGE grain of salt, but still, let's hope this starts to puncture the false MSM narrative that McCain has NH in the bag. - promoted by Dean Barker)
http://www.americanresearchgro...
Today ARG released a poll (I know, I know but hey what the heck - this one at least makes me smile).
Update (Dean): More good news (again recognizing that it's ARG we're dealing with here) from the poll:
Obama leads McCain 53% to 38% among independent voters (38% of likely voters).
...43% of likely voters say they would never vote for John McCain in the general election and 25% of likely voters say they would never vote for Barack Obama in the general election.
In the race for US Senate in New Hampshire, Jeanne Shaheen leads John Sununu 54% to 40%, with 6% undecided. Shaheen leads Sununu 53% to 38% among independent (undeclared) voters.
Interesting McCan't would distance himself from SS privatization in New Hampshire, given that our junior senator John E. Sununu is a champion of dismantling FDR's legacy.
p.s. Looks like between 200 and 300 people showed up for a guy our state supposedly has a huge affection for. I'm guessing Obama could pull in ten times that amount (and likely, more) at a moment's notice in Nashua.
Today, while campaigning in South Dakota, Sen. Clinton had this to say about why the contest should continue:
Via HuffPo:
"My husband did not wrap up the nomination in 1992 until he won the California primary somewhere in the middle of June, right? We all remember Bobby Kennedy was assassinated in June in California. I don't understand it."
I don't know about you, but this has put me into such a state of shocking anger that I'm having trouble choosing polite words to express it. I have not felt this angry about something political in a long time. As an early and involved Obama supporter, I have certainly had moments of frustration with Hillary, even moments of anger. But never like this.
First, I had never imagined that Sen. Clinton would stoop to a level of desperation so deep that she would raise the specter of Sen. Obama being assassinated to make a political point. This is worse than, for example, Huckabee's stupid and tastless assassination joke because while Huckabee is moron, Sen. Clinton is very intelligent. Maybe she misspoke? But this is not the first time she's made RFK-Obama assassination comparisons. This is deliberate.
To me, even worse than raising the spectre of Sen. Obama being assassinated is using the tragic and untimely death of Bobby Kennedy to score a cheap (and by this point meaningless) political point. My grandfather knew Bobby Kennedy, and some of my earliest political memories were of my grandfather telling me what a great man and a great leader RFK was.
It tarnishes everything RFK stood for to use his assassination to insinuate that anyone, but especially a fellow Democrat, a fellow Senator, and a good public servant, will be assassinated.
Politics can be rough and tumble. You take everything the other side says with a grain of salt, and don't get too mad about them. But this is in a league of its own.
DiStaso brings news that the Republican Governors Association is running a poll here. It asks about national and statewide races, but when talk turns to Lynch the tone changes. For example:
'Governor Lynch's cuts in funding for law enforcement have caused crime to surge in the state by such-and-such a percentage. Does this make you more or less likely to vote for Governor Lynch in the next election?'
DiStaso gets things a bit wrong when he says:
Is it an push poll? No, not as long as the group that paid for it was identified and the caller's telephone number was given.
Those steps make it a legal under New Hampshire law. It's as fully legal as using trackers to videotape your opponent, for example.
But it is clearly a "push poll:" intended to circulate negative talking points about an opponent, rather than just measure the voters' current attitudes.
Maybe it's because of the offenses which were committed against us here in NH, but I can't help but be disgusted by the latest from Senator Hillary Clinton in Ohio.
Since when do Democrats attack each other on universal health care? I thought we were trying to realize Harry Truman's dream . . . Just because Senator Obama chose not to present a universal health care plan, does not give him the right to attack me because I did.
Ummm... since when do Democrats attack each other on choice? We know that answer don't we? As of January 5th, 2007 it became acceptable for one Democrat to attack another on choice and undermine "core Democratic values". That's when you dropped your innuendo laden mailer on New Hampshire Democrats which "questioned" Barack Obama's commitment to choice.
So, let's have a real campaign. Enough with the speeches, and the big rallies, and then using tactics that are right of Karl Rove's playbook. This is wrong, and every Democrat should be outraged. Because this is the kind of attack that not only undermines core Democratic values, but gives aid and comfort to the very special interests and their allies in the Republican Party who are against doing what we want to do for America.
Wanna talk about Karl Rove's Playbook? How about a mailer that accuses a fellow Democrat of raising taxes a trillion dollar on America's "hard-working families" and encourages voters to support the candidate that will help them "Keep more" of what they earn. Sounds like copy Sununu could/would use to me.
Pot. Kettle. Black. Mrs. Clinton. Pot Kettle. Black.
Democrats should be outraged, but not at Barack Obama.
Bow out gracefully on March 5th and save what goodwill, favors and capital you have for your role as Senate Majority leader. Keep this sort of campaign going and you will scar the party, and embarrass those who have supported and continue to stand by you.
End Note: I wrote the above this morning, left and did some errands and exhaled a bit, only to come back home to find this piece of theater on the intertubes. Enjoy your vacation Senator Clinton, the people of NY state are looking forward to having your full attention again.
(Sounds great, but can we call it something else? "Hamster Fest" sounds like we'll be dining on vermin! Thanks for arranging all this, Jon. - promoted by Dean Barker)
Hamsters of the World Unite/ Please Save The Date
Please save the date Sat. May 3rd, at 12 noon because...we will be having our first annual Blue Hampshire Bash in Concord at Hermanos. Our hosts Bruce Parrish and Jane Valliere are going to put on a killer buffet for this unique Progressive Online Community ! Our three founding editors as well as current and past FP'ers have confirmed attendance. Pindell will be covering for PolitickerNH, I am working on some live music.
Watch this Space for Details
More to come,
Jonny
PS Thinking of ideas like a Canned Food Collection to coincide with the event. Send good ideas to
jon.bresler@gmail.com
Free Drinks to the Winning Suggestion
That's how I roll
Here is the text of my recent letter to NH Newspapers. I am a volunteer for the campaign.
Jeanne Shaheen helped us to honor Martin Luther King Jr.
During this time honoring Martin Luther King, we need to be cognizant of the long fought battle to end our embarrassing standing as the last state recognizing this important holiday.
The holiday was first proposed in the New Hampshire legislature in 1979, but it took until Governor Shaheen's second term to finally put the day into law. In her second inaugural address, Jeanne Shaheen said, "we must not end this century without making Martin Luther King Day part of the heritage we leave our children". She lived up to that statement and signed the law in June, 1999.
Governor Jeanne Shaheen stood for right, stood for children, stood for us. As Senator, this good woman will continue to fight for the under represented and the civil rights Dr. King gave his life for.
Tommorow New Hampshire will get to make a powerful statement in choosing who they will nominate to lead the Democratic Party in the general election. After 7 years of the harmful, extreme, and foolish positions taken by Bush and Cheney, we need to choose a president that can bring us change.
The person is Hillary Rodham Clinton.
She has spent a lifetime making change, from getting health care for children to making sure our troops get the treatment they deserve and need.
When I watched the most recent debate I saw a party committed to change, and I was excited to see that. But only one candidate on that stage was capable of making the changes everyone talked about. While I love that Obama and Edwards talk about change in both hopeful and aggressive ways, Hillary is the candidate who will actually turn the pages on the Bush years.
This is my personal perspective on a breaking story about Fox News commentator Bill O'Reilly manhandling a campaign worker at a rally for Senator Barack Obama in Nashua, New Hampshire today. (Hat tip to icebergslim.)
Over 200 individuals applied for media passes to cover the rally for Senator Obama today. Among them were Bill O'Reilly and me, a photo blogger covering the event in my personal diaries on Daily Kos and BlueHampshire. (Hat tip to the Obama campaign for graciously offering access to bloggers as well as blowhards.)
The press pass came with a few reasonable conditions. Media presets were to be from 8:30 to 9:00 a.m. This means that camera equipment had to be set up before 9:00 a.m. in order to allow the Secret Service to sweep for bombs. All media representatives were required to vacate the gymnasium until the doors opened at 10:00 a.m. I showed up at 8:15 a.m., set up my tripod, and enjoyed a cup of Dunkin Donuts coffee provided by the campaign. O'Reilly blew off the preset, then marched into the rally midway, after other broadcast crews and still photographers had already established their camera positions.
At a town hall in Concord, New Hampshire today John spoke with a mixed crowd of New Hampshire voters. Some were long-term Edwards supporters, looking for one last chance to hear the Senator speak before heading to the polls. Others had been leaning towards a candidate, but had yet to make a firm choice. Still others were seeking information, completely uncertain of who they would vote for on Tuesday.
The first voter I spoke with quickly identified himself as a Democrat whose ideals fit the progressive agenda. He said he didn't expect to leave with his mind made up - just more information. He said had seen Senator Clinton not too long ago and was impressed with her breadth of knowledge and understanding on the issues, but wasn't swayed. He was encouraged to see that she took questions from the crowd, something she has been known to avoid, but felt like she wasn't really listening to the questioners. She "knew the answers before the questions were even asked" he said.
As things got started, Elizabeth introduced John saying,
"This election is not just about the language of change - it's about results."
John expanded on this idea and as he spoke of his strong showing and defeat of Senator Clinton in Iowa on Thursday night.
Greetings, Blue Hampshire, from Las Vegas, Nevada! I'm a first-time diarist here, and since I'm not from New Hamsphire, but from Nevada I'll keep this intro brief. This diary is a cross-post from Daily Kos, and a commenter there recommended that I post it here because of the upcoming primary. Hopefully it's cool that I've done that. Hope you all enjoy the debate tonight and have huge turnout on Tuesday!
