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(Key takeaways: 1) Credible polling puts Hodes within a small MoE of Ayotte. 2) As we have pointed out time and again, Palin is a drag on the NH ticket. 3) As I suspected, Bill Binnie is the stronger general election Republican candidate. Finally: you guys deserve serious props for freeping that PPP survey to get their attention that we desperately needed real polling for this race. Now go out and spread the news on this poll before the UL and WMUR predictably blanket the state media spin with UNH's higher MoEs. - promoted by Dean Barker)
It looks like Republican activists, pundits and Democratic naysayers were hanging up the banners at the Republican victory party a little too early.
The Public Policy Poll has Paul; Hodes within three points of Kelly Ayotte, five points of Bill Binnie, one point ahead of Bender and five points ahead of Ovide.
http://nhpoliticalreport.com/
This poll is stunningly different from Rasmussen, yet still may be tilted toward Republican voters, According to the cross tabs, 45% of those responding said they voted for McCain, while 48% said they voted for Barack Obama. In the actual 2008 election, 54% of NH voters voted for Barack Obama.
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/20...
Over the past six months, my opponents have constantly reminded me of how crucial this race is. Whether it's a woman's right to choose or a family's right to affordable health care - they've shown us time and time again what we all stand to lose if Kelly Ayotte, Bill Binnie, or Ovide Lamontagne wins.
(Thanks for stopping by Congressman. Only 160 days until we get to vote for you to be the next Senator from the great state of New Hampshire. - promoted by Mike Hoefer)
For 43 days, thousands of barrels of oil have been spilling into the Gulf Coast. 43 days of environmental disaster because big oil companies were given a blank check on offshore drilling with little regulation and poor oversight.
Now, with the recent failure of the "top kill" strategy, there is no end in sight to the amount of oil that is spilling into the Gulf. This spill is poisoning our waters, suffocating our plants and wildlife, and jeopardizing the health of our citizens - threatening jobs, businesses and communities along the Gulf Coast.
My thoughts and prayers are with the people and communities down on the Gulf, who are dealing day and night with the devastating aftermath of the spill.
This disaster was a warning sign. When government puts the profits of Big Oil first, when politicians listen to special interests instead of the people they are supposed to represent - then we put the safety of our workers, communities and economy at risk.
Scala sees parallels between this GOP Senate primary and the one in 2002.
The Sununu vs. Smith race is especially instructive. Sununu, the challenger to the incumbent, did not run as a moderate insurgent. If anything, the contrast was one of tone and personality, between the coolly cerebral Sununu and the flamboyant, Buchananesque Smith (who quit the Republican Party and ran for president before returning to the GOP).
Ayotte and Lamontagne are both running to the right to win the primary. Then what?
Now to the general. Ambinder implies that only a Susan Collins Republican can now win a general election in New Hampshire. But in the last two election cycles, moderate Republicans (Congressmen Charlie Bass and Jeb Bradley) and conservative Republicans (Sununu) alike lost here. Arguably, no one with an (R) next to his name could win a statewide election in New Hampshire the last two cycles. It doesn't necessarily follow that a conservative Republican cannot win a general election in New Hampshire in the new Obama era, when economic and fiscal issues appear to be dominant once again.
I guess Scala is holding to the meme that Democrats won the last two cycles because of the war and Bush fatigue. I'm not so sure. Also, I don't think Bass and Bradley, who voted with W. Bush most, if not all the time, can be considered moderate.
Also, I hope the parallels end at the primary election. We don't need any more illegal actions, such as phone jamming, leading to lawsuits, jail time and whatnot.
(Part put below the fold. - promoted by Dean Barker)
Below is a memo detailing the secret work being done by the National Republican Senatorial Campaign (NRSC) to aid Kelly Ayotte's bid for U.S. Senate.
NRSC boss, John Cornyn claims that he has not endorsed Kelly Ayotte but his actions say otherwise. He has publicly referred to her as one of his top recruits, organized large-scale fundraisers for her in Washington and dispatched NRSC political operatives to her campaign. It is clear Cornyn is working behind the scenes to help his handpicked candidate beat her primary challengers.
Tomorrow, Ayotte will attend three fund-raisers in Washington. One of her fund-raisers will be hosted by Senators Mitch McConnell and John Cornyn at the NRSC Headquarters; another will be hosted by Washington-based lobbyist Rick Murphy, whose client list has included both the tobacco and pharmaceutical lobbies; and her third fund-raiser will be hosted by an unknown party at Charlie Palmer Steakhouse, the well-known hangout of K Street lobbyists and Washington's power elite. As Cornyn's top recruit, Ayotte will undoubtedly rake in millions from these three events.
The NRSC has also dispatched two of its top fundraising and political operatives to help the first time candidate out-raise her seasoned primary opponents. Laura Van-Hove, a top fund-raiser for the NRSC who specializes in high-dollar event fundraising, was dispatched to help Ayotte fund-raise in Washington. While Neva Foley, the former NRSC Associate Political Director, was sent to work as Ayotte's campaign Operations Director.
Backdoor support from John Cornyn and the NRSC will allow Kelly Ayotte to raise millions from Washington special interest groups, say GOP sources. One GOP activist told the Union Leader: "When Charlie Crist (of Florida) got into the Senate race with the NRSC's support earlier this summer, they raised $4.3 million in just 50 days. There is no reason why she'll be any different."
