Prog Blogs, Orgs & Alumni
Betsy Devine
Blue News Tribune (MA)
Democracy for NH
Live Free or Die
Mike Caulfield
Granite State Progress
Seacoast for Change
Susan the Bruce
Campaigns, Et Alia.
Paul Hodes
Carol Shea-Porter
John DeJoie
Ann McLane Kuster
ActBlue Hampshire
NHDP
DCCC
DSCC
DNC
National
Balloon Juice
billmon
Congress Matters
DailyKos
Digby
Hold Fast
Eschaton
FiveThirtyEight
MyDD
The Next Hurrah
Open Left
Senate Guru
Swing State Project
Talking Points Memo
50 State Blog Network
Alabama
Arizona
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
Florida
Georgia
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Missouri
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
New York
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Texas
Utah
Vermont
Virginia
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Don't know how I missed this from over a month ago. Landrigan:
But curiously, even though 36,000 more voters cast ballots than four years ago, the much more popular McCain got fewer votes in all 10 counties than Bush did in 2004.
"That's very significant, and it does say something," Secretary of State Bill Gardner said. "I'm just not sure what it was."
The man who trounced Bush in the 2000 primary actually got less votes in '08 that W. did in '04? Despite 36K more voters overall??
That's stunning, even when you factor in the power of incumbency for King George in '04.
Before you get all excited, please read this first about the volatility of polls that don't weigh for party ID.
(Update: sure enough, elwood found the numbers, and Andy Smith underpolled Republicans by about 3 percent (just as he had underpolled Democrats the previous time). So as I suspected, there is no reason at all to believe these margins, or the ones for the down-ticket races (except maybe CSP's - vide the CD breakdown).)
That said, we are in pretty good shape, generally speaking:
"The John McCain I see right now is not the John McCain I saw in 2000," said Kevin Clancy, a 47-year-old undeclared voter from Manchester who had considered voting for McCain after Hillary Clinton lost the Democratic nomination. "I just can't stand the lies and the smears that are coming from the Republican Party."
...Linda Comeau, 55, an independent voter from Stratham who supported Clinton in the primary, said she was "very open" to McCain until he picked Palin. "She is not prepared to be vice president," she said. "She is uninformed, she doesn't know what she is saying, she is inexperienced, and compared to Barack Obama her intellect is minimal."
UNH has their latest poll out, this time splashed across the Globe. The "J-Team" is getting pwned:
Jeanne Shaheen: 49%
John Sununu: 36%
undecided: 13%
Carol Shea-Porter: 44%
Jeb Bradley: 39%
undecided: 14%
Paul Hodes: 51%
Jennifer Horn: 25%
undecided: 24%
John Lynch: 67%
Joe Kenney: 17%
undecided: 15%
Conducted: 10/18-10/22, Sample size: 725 (statewide; presumably CDs are half that), MoE +/-3.5
As we've said repeatedly here, UNH does not weigh their sample for party affiliation, a practice that can create unnecessary volatility in the trendlines. For an example of it in action, check out the accompanying graph in the Globe - it's a roller-coaster.
So this time it looks like it's swung on our side. While I firmly believe we are going to win every one of these races, I personally don't trust these margins, though at least the sample size is larger than the previous polls statewide (725). That's still too small for the two CDs, though, if we presume those numbers are half that for the Hodes and Shea-Porter races.
My takeaway: don't trust these numbers in detail, do trust the overall impression that we have the advantage, do continue to work your heart and soul out to change our country. Canvass, phonebank, visibility, donate, write LTEs, talk to undecideds, drive people to the polls, vote.
I knew it - the Palin pick is poison for a state like ours. The older, yankee Republicans are repulsed by such a reckless choice, and the undeclared women of this state are far smarter than John McCain gives them credit for:
The CNN/Time Magazine/Opinion Research Corporation polls were conducted Sunday through Tuesday, with 966 registered voters in Michigan, 940 registered voters in Missouri, 899 registered voters in New Hampshire, and 920 registered voters in Virginia questioned by telephone. The survey's sampling error is plus or minus 3 percentage points in Michigan, Missouri and New Hampshire and 3.5 percentage points in New Hampshire.
A nicely sized sample, and registered voters. Awesome.
I'll put up more detail on this poll if/when I can find it.
Update: Thank you Garth! Check out the numbers on women and older voters in the poll. Barracuda!
Among men: Obama 46, McCain 48 Among women: Obama 56, McCain 41
Among whites: Obama 51, McCain 44
Among voters under 50: Obama 48, McCain 46 Among voters older than 50: Obama 54, McCain 42
Among voters making under $50,000/year: Obama 59, McCain 38
Among voters making more than $50,000/year: Obama 49, McCain 46
(It's ARG, so take it with a HUGE grain of salt, but still, let's hope this starts to puncture the false MSM narrative that McCain has NH in the bag. - promoted by Dean Barker)
http://www.americanresearchgro...
Today ARG released a poll (I know, I know but hey what the heck - this one at least makes me smile).
Update (Dean): More good news (again recognizing that it's ARG we're dealing with here) from the poll:
Obama leads McCain 53% to 38% among independent voters (38% of likely voters).
...43% of likely voters say they would never vote for John McCain in the general election and 25% of likely voters say they would never vote for Barack Obama in the general election.
In the race for US Senate in New Hampshire, Jeanne Shaheen leads John Sununu 54% to 40%, with 6% undecided. Shaheen leads Sununu 53% to 38% among independent (undeclared) voters.
