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I was going to start analyzing the UNH tracking poll yesterday, as it was the third day of results. Stupidly, I thought that the daily nature of the tracking would overcome the failure to attend to party ID and the absurdly small sample size of the CD races.
But after I saw that Carol went from an 11 point to a 2 point lead in one day, and that, true to form, the sample was tiny, and the poll oversampled Republicans by four points or so, I just gave up.
I'm tired of cleaning up after polling accidents. There is so much going on between now and election day that I really don't have the time. It's just a great shame that it has such an effect on the CW in this state, and beyond. And it's really a crime that I have to spend a good portion of my day offline and on putting out fires from incredulous people who unknowingly put their faith in the numbers they see on WMUR and go, "Wow, Obama's going to win by that much?" or "Whoa, Jeb can pull this out!"
Concord Monitor, if you are reading this: thank you for choosing R2K for your polling. I have been really struck with the attention they have given to reality-based demographics. And if I had the money I would be commissioning them myself.
So the long and the short of it is, if you're wondering about the lack of analysis or posting on UNH polls from now until Tuesday from me, that's why.
I can't say that I'm terribly surprised that the statewide candidate who has run the most dishonorable campaign this cycle, Jeb Bradley, would give over ninety thousand Benjamins to a convicted phonejammer's company.
BTW, the UNH tracking poll has Shea-Porter over Jeb, 48-40. I'm a little more inclined to have faith in the tracking poll from UNH, despite the party id issues, because it's a daily beast. The very frequency of it should give us some numbers to believe in when looking at the totality, so expect a greater look at it once a few days have gone by.
Adding: speaking of "the company he keeps," what will we hear from Sununu on his mentor and Kenai river fishin' buddy Ted Stevens now that he's been convicted?
Before you get all excited, please read this first about the volatility of polls that don't weigh for party ID.
(Update: sure enough, elwood found the numbers, and Andy Smith underpolled Republicans by about 3 percent (just as he had underpolled Democrats the previous time). So as I suspected, there is no reason at all to believe these margins, or the ones for the down-ticket races (except maybe CSP's - vide the CD breakdown).)
That said, we are in pretty good shape, generally speaking:
"The John McCain I see right now is not the John McCain I saw in 2000," said Kevin Clancy, a 47-year-old undeclared voter from Manchester who had considered voting for McCain after Hillary Clinton lost the Democratic nomination. "I just can't stand the lies and the smears that are coming from the Republican Party."
...Linda Comeau, 55, an independent voter from Stratham who supported Clinton in the primary, said she was "very open" to McCain until he picked Palin. "She is not prepared to be vice president," she said. "She is uninformed, she doesn't know what she is saying, she is inexperienced, and compared to Barack Obama her intellect is minimal."
UNH has their latest poll out, this time splashed across the Globe. The "J-Team" is getting pwned:
Jeanne Shaheen: 49%
John Sununu: 36%
undecided: 13%
Carol Shea-Porter: 44%
Jeb Bradley: 39%
undecided: 14%
Paul Hodes: 51%
Jennifer Horn: 25%
undecided: 24%
John Lynch: 67%
Joe Kenney: 17%
undecided: 15%
Conducted: 10/18-10/22, Sample size: 725 (statewide; presumably CDs are half that), MoE +/-3.5
As we've said repeatedly here, UNH does not weigh their sample for party affiliation, a practice that can create unnecessary volatility in the trendlines. For an example of it in action, check out the accompanying graph in the Globe - it's a roller-coaster.
So this time it looks like it's swung on our side. While I firmly believe we are going to win every one of these races, I personally don't trust these margins, though at least the sample size is larger than the previous polls statewide (725). That's still too small for the two CDs, though, if we presume those numbers are half that for the Hodes and Shea-Porter races.
My takeaway: don't trust these numbers in detail, do trust the overall impression that we have the advantage, do continue to work your heart and soul out to change our country. Canvass, phonebank, visibility, donate, write LTEs, talk to undecideds, drive people to the polls, vote.
Dean already highlighted that the latest UNH poll was apparently done in
Faux Hampshire, the land of 7% more Republicans than New Hampshire.
There are a couple other numbers I want to draw your attention to there.
252
6.2%
271
6%
That's the sample size and margin of error for the NH-01 and NH-02 polls.
I am agape and aghast that any pollster who even pretends to care about quality of information or even, cravenly, their own reputation would release polls with numbers like that. That's just ridiculous.
It positively rained New Hampshire polls today - I'm only just now catching up to them.
Let's start with the presidentials. Marist College has Obama leading, and with a good sample size of registered voters, and more so with leaners factored in:
70% of Obama's backers are excited about the candidates running for president while 49% of McCain's report they are enthused.
On to Rasmussen, which was the real (bad) surprise of the day, and unfortunately I have no access to their sample data without paying for it. First up, the presidentials have McCain ahead by a couple, mimicking the Faux Hampshire poll. A click at the link suggests that McCain has shored up his support among the GOP here (a result of Palin? I personally don't think so, but who knows?)
Obama 49%
McCain 47%
Sample size: 700. Conducted 9/23. MoE +/-4%
On to Ras' Senate poll, the real shocker of the day, so much so I can only believe we have an outlier on our hands here, especially given that just yesterday Shaheen was beating Sununu by four in a poll that oversampled Republicans by 7%, and ARG still has them worlds apart:
Sununu 52%
Shaheen 45%
Sample size: 700. Conducted 9/23. MoE +/-4%
Next up, Paul Hodes released an internal poll today to counter the sly NRCC poll taken right after Horn won the nomination (courtesy SSP):
Anzalone-Liszt for Paul Hodes (9/14-18, likely voters):
Paul Hodes (D-inc): 50
Jennifer Horn (R): 32
Chester Lapointe (L): 4
(MoE: ±4.4%)
Looks like not a whole lot to worry about there.
And rounding out the end, we come to the third, Congressional iteration of the WMUR/UNH Granite State Poll of Faux Hampshire, the land of 7% more Republicans than New Hampshire:
In a state somewhere near us, but not us, where John McCain is doing well (and indeed got more votes than either Clinton or Obama in the presidential primary, where there are seven percent more Republicans than in the Granite State, Jeanne Shaheen is still beating Sununu by four points*.
Just imagine what she must be doing to him in New Hampshire!
There has already been a couple of diaries posted about how the sample size of the UNH Survey Center poll skewed Republican, and that it is likely that McCain's number is artificially inflated as a result. Consequently, we should expect the poll numbers for the US Senate and congressional races to show the same sort of skewing. It won't surprise me if it shows the senate race to be a statistical dead heat, because of the undersampling of Democratic voters.
The sample size in this polls was:
24% D
41% U
31% R
For a net +7 GOP registration. By way of comparison, in April his poll had a -1 GOP reg advantage, in July it had a +1 GOP reg advantage.
Today it has a +7 GOP reg advantage. The April poll, with the -1 GOP registration, had McCain up by 6 points, so I am guessing that if the poll had accurately sampled Democrats, the numbers would look different.
In any event, we are going to hear a lot of hooey about the poll numbers in the senate race and the congresional races, as well, so before we do, everyone take a deep breath, remember that we have six weeks to go, and we all need to work harder!!
Ray has dutifully posted the latest WMUR Granite State (UNH) poll email, showing McCain inching past Obama, 47%-45%. Expect it to be part of your state news today.
The UNH sample included 550 "randomly selected New Hampshire adults". The margin of error is +/- 4.2%. There's also a smaller subgroup number of "likely voters."
Andy Smith does not weigh or filter his sample according to party affiliation, despite the availability of very recent data (August 2008) from a reliable non-partisan source, the Secretary of State. Elwood, who has a pesky habit of living in the reality-based community, made a convenient comparison chart for your viewing pleasure. He culled the data from page 7 of the UNH .pdf, under the likely voter Obama favorability question to get registered voters (by removing non-registered), and made averages from the response numbers:
Actual, per Bill Gardner, Aug 2008:
D: 30.5%, R: 31%, U: 38.5%
So, to sum up. In some other state where there are 5.5% less Democrats and 2% more Republicans than were in NH a month ago, McCain is edging Obama by two points within the margin of error.
WMUR / Granite State Poll
The University of New Hampshire
MCCAIN WITH SLIGHT NH EDGE, MANY VOTERS UNDECIDED
DURHAM, NH John McCain has regained a slight lead over Barack Obama in the
race for President in the swing state of New Hampshire. But many voters
remain undecided and many more say they could change their minds between
now and the election. The most important issue to voters continues to be
jobs and the economy.
These findings are based on the latest WMUR / Granite State Poll, sponsored
by WMUR-TV and conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey
Center. Five hundred fifty (550) randomly selected New Hampshire adults
were interviewed by telephone between September 14 and September 21,
2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/-4.2%. Included
was a subsample of 523 likely November voters (margin of sampling error,
+/-4.3%).
Although New Hampshire has only 4 votes in the Electoral College it will be
a battleground state in the November election. Currently, Arizona Senator
John McCain holds a small lead over Illinois Senator Barack Obama. In the
most recent Granite State Poll, 47% of likely voters say they plan to vote
for McCain, 45% say they will vote for Obama, 1% prefer some other
candidate and 7% are undecided.
For complete press release and detailed tabular results, please click:
http://www.unh.edu/survey-cent...
Andrew E. Smith, Ph.D.
Director, The Survey Center
Assoc. Professor of Political Science
G05 Huddleston Hall
University of New Hampshire
Durham, NH 03824
603.862.2226
603.862.3877
www.unh.edu/survey-center
That's right - now very slightly less than one out of every four Granite Staters approves of the leader of the Republican party. The one John Sununu votes with 90% of the time, as undisputed by him.
Rasmussen shows the POTUS race in NH a hair tighter than the last time, but I'll still take it:
Barack Obama 47%
John McCain 41%
700 "Likely Voters", MoE +/-4%, taken 7/23
FWIW, note that the poll was taken while McCain was in the Granite State. I wonder if that had any effect either way.
Another Rasmussen, this time on the Senate race. A tighter race than before, but outside the MoE, and when leaners are brought in Shaheen gains a point.
Jeanne Shaheen 50%
John Sununu 45%
500 "Likely Voters", MoE +/-4.5%, taken 7/23
Yet one more poll showing incumbent John E. still below the 50% magic threshold. To give some idea what this means, there has been no winning Senate incumbent in that position since Jesse Helms 24 years ago. Except he had already made up for the deficit in May. It's almost August.
It's great to see a bigger sample than ARG and UNH for POTUS. Also different from either of them is that Ras screens for party affiliation.
Finally, UNH tracks the Lynch-Kenney race (.pdf). This one's in the bag:
John Lynch 67%
Joe Kenney 16%
Undecided 16%
519 "randomly selected New Hampshire adults", taken 7/11-7/20, MoE +/-4.5%
Finally, based on these new polls, CQ has, correctly, imho, changed their rating to "Leans Democratic" from "No Clear Favorite."
Takeaway: conventional wisdom is starting to solidify nationally that Sununu is in serious trouble. And for us watching more closely, we have two more polls that still show him well below the magic 50% number needed for an incumbent to show any kind of job security. And as far as where the electorate is in reference to the two polls, my best guess is that it's probably somewhere in-between ARG and UNH, which is essentially where it was in previous polling.
Andy Smith's latest UNH Poll is out. Here's a screengrab from the .pdf:
The poll sampled 519 "randomly selected New Hampshire adults" between July 11-20, with a subsample of 475 "likely November voters."
First impression: what a difference from April! Second impression: we've still got plenty of work to do.
Hamsters: click on the .pdf link above and get cracking on the crosstabs. Here's one surprise: the first CD has Obama 47% to McCain's 40%, but in CD2 they are plit even at 45%.
BY: Bob Perry, Democratic Representative from Strafford, District #3 and posted at the author's request.
My seatmates in the house are Naida Kean, Chair of the House Science, Technology and Energy Committee; and Bill Chase, member of the same committee. It has been my pleasure to share the floor of the house for two session years with such good and committed Democratic state representatives who have worked in concert to succesfully pass important environmental legislation. Naida invited me to tour the above-entitled facility knowing of my lifelong interest in environmental matters. It is safe to say green technology is booming around the globe, in no way attributable in the United States to the leadership of Mr. Bush, but driven only by the record-high cost of crude oil, offering enormous opportunities for employment and profit in green technologies. The tour consisted of a slide show and physical tour of the new plant.
(I don't think this has been diaried yet, sorry if it has)
The Globe/UNH released new polling on the 23rd. The wonks may want the full 58 page report with cross tabs in PDF format
This is the first UNH/Globe poll to show Obama in the lead. Last month Clinton was up by 14pts, This month Obama is up by 2.
While there are plenty of undecided voters out there (40%, a good reminder about the opportunities we have over the next 2 weeks) I'll explain below why Barack Obama is perhaps best positioned to pull in a majority of these undecideds.
Survey MOE=4.9%
Overall: Although he does not lead every category, Senator Obama is the ultimate choice of 30% of those surveyed. And there is Big Mo in his direction in the areas he does not lead.
Obama 30(+9), Clinton 28(-7), Edwards 14(-1), Richardson 7(-3)
Most Trustworthy: Obama leads this category. 70% more trustworthy than Clinton both vectors are working for him.
Obama 29(+3), Clinton 17(-2), Edwards, 16%9(-3)
Can bring needed change to US:
Obama 34%, Clinton 28%, Edwards 12%
Has Shown Best Judgement: It's not your experience but what you do with it
Obama 29%(+5), Clinton 23%(-1) Edwards 13%(-2)
Dem Candidate Least Likely to vote for: Edwards high negatives surprised me. If 80% of the undecided are open to Obama that is a good sign for his campaign in these closing weeks.
Edwards 35%, Clinton 32%, Obama 21%
Should Individuals be Required to buy Health Insurance: This is the political Gem for Obama. He should frame other heath plans as "Universal Manadates", his offers choice and opt out.
No 54%, Yes 35%
Even the categories that, as Obama Supporter am hesitant to mention, are trending well for the Senator from Illinois.
Which Candidate has the best chance to defeat the Republican Nom:
Clinton 40(-13), Obama 29(+11) a 24 pt. swing
Which Candidate is the strongest leader:
Clinton 38%(-7), Obama 24(+7) a 14 pt. swing
It is going to be a very interesting 2 weeks here in the Granite State.
A jump on voting: Increased number of absentee ballots expected due to holiday vacation at UNH, other universities
By REBECCA HAMM
rhamm@fosters.com
Article Date: Thursday, December 13, 2007
DURHAM - With the presidential primary just around the corner, and university students scheduled to be away on winter break, the Durham town clerk doesn't expect the typical mob scene at the polls.
DURHAM - In his 26 years of working colleagues for support in the U.S. Senate, Chris Dodd says he's always faced the same problem when pushing initiatives to help families.
"'I'll tell you what, I'll support one of the three. You tell me which one you'd like me to support,'" Dodd quoted them as saying. "I try to tell them it's not three different families - it's the same family.'
Whether it be money for Head Start, women's and children's programs or the federal heating aid program for low-income families, "you can't pick or choose," he said. "You're going to put money in one pocket and take it out of the other pocket in the same instance."
Lacking the star power of some of his rivals, the Democratic president candidate leaned on his experience to show he understands the "totality" of the problems facing families and children.
Not much to add to this good news, other than a) that it's nice to see this not coming from ARG, and b) this:
The percentage of residents with a favorable opinion of Sununu dropped to 40 percent, while the percentage with an unfavorable opinion rose to 37 percent, giving him a net favorability rating of 3 percent, the lowest since he was elected.
