The Partisan Makeup of the House Redistricting Plan

by: William Tucker

Fri Dec 16, 2011 at 06:00:00 AM EST

Wednesday, the House Special Committee on Redistricting released the House leadership's redistricting plan. The plan, which creates new voting districts for the state's 400 House members, reflects population shifts measured by the 2010 census.

This plan varies dramatically from the current plan due, in large part, to a 2006 constitutional amendment that requires every town and city ward with the minimum population to get its own representative. This proposed plan expands the number of districts from the current 103 to 200.

To help understand the electoral implications, I have updated my original analysis of the partisan makeup of House districts based on this plan. (See the New Hampshire Partisan Voting Index (PVI) for a discussion of the Cook PVI and methodology.) This chart provides the Partisan Voting Index (PVI) for each new district.

Using methodology similar to that I used to project the 2010 state House elections (Part 1, Part 2), I projected electoral results using the current House districts and compared them to projected results using the districts in the proposed plan. The projections indicate a 1-2 seat gain for Republicans in state-wide results for the new plan, well within the model's margin of error. For example, the model indicates a 202-198 Democratic majority under the current plan would become a 200-200 tie under the proposed plan.

In the next few days, I'll take a closer county-by-county look at the new plan and the electoral projections.

State House Update

by: William Tucker

Wed May 04, 2011 at 14:57:15 PM EDT

Today, the House and Senate are both in session with full dockets. Here's a summary of the damage so far. (For the real-time blow-by-blow account, head to the twittersphere.)

HOUSE

SB3: Changes to state retirement system
Passed: 238-121
Will go to Committee of Conference

SB148: "Requires" AG to join healthcare lawsuit and returns exchange grant
Passed: 261-104

HB474: Right to Work
Passed: 225-140
Concurs with Senate version, sends to Governor (for certain veto)

SB160: Pay day loans
Sends back to committee 225-142 (after failing to accept, table or reject)

SENATE

HB489: Establish health information organizatoin corp.
Passed: 19-5 

HB89: Would require AG to join healthcare lawsuit
Tabled

HB370: Changes to anti-bullying law
Rejected: unanimous 

Abandoning Children in Need

by: William Tucker

Wed May 04, 2011 at 06:00:00 AM EDT

The Concord Monitor examines the impact of eliminating "Children in Need of Services" (CHINS), a state program in which parents or school officials can ask the court system for help with children whose behavior suggests serious problems.

That intervention ... is often a last resort for families dealing with uncontrollable, troubled children and the only way to provide adequate treatment and monitoring, said Maggie Bishop, the director of the state's juvenile justice division.

One of the more valuable aspects of the Children in Need of Services process is that it allows for oversight of a family's home, said Judge Ned Gordon, who oversees family cases in Franklin District Court.

"Usually, if a kid's not going to school, that's not the problem. It's a symptom of the problem," Gordon said. In addition to having a probation officer monitor a child and make sure he gets to school and participates meaningfully, the court can require a child to call the officer every night, impose a curfew and require that the child submit to random drug and alcohol testing.

Bringing the CHINS cases to court creates "a full-press effort," said David Kemper, chairman of the state's advisory group for the Coalition for Juvenile Justice, a national nonprofit association. "You're having a lot more people surrounding this kid and this family ... basically forcing this kid to make good choices."

Failure to intervene is likely to lead to increasingly negative outcomes: reduced engagement in school leading to a lifetime loss of employment and income, exacerbated family tensions resulting in assaults or abuse, and deeper involvement in criminal behavior and incarceration. Ultimately, they will require more costly services and will place increased burdens on local police and hospitals.

CHINS served 1,000 New Hampshire children last year. The House budget saves $7 million over the next two years by eliminating the program. GOP Rep. Neal Kurk, chairman of the House Finance subcommittee that proposed eliminating CHINS, said there was "no question" that cutting CHINS will shift costs elsewhere.

Next week, the Senate Finance Committee will begin voting on budget item recommendations.

Granite State Poll: Increase Revenue to Balance Budget

by: William Tucker

Tue May 03, 2011 at 06:00:00 AM EDT

By a 73% - 24% margin, New Hampshire residents favor some tax increases to help address New Hampshire’s budget shortfall. As the severity of the proposed spending cuts in the GOP House budget has become known, those who favor balancing the budget with spending cuts alone has decreased from 29% to 24%.

A new WMUR Granite State Poll asked respondents to select the approach they would choose to deal with the budget shortfall. 24% responded entirely with spending cuts, 21% said mainly spending cuts with some tax increases, 36% chose an even balance, 11% said mainly tax increases and some spending cuts, and 5% chose to address the budget shortfall entirely with tax increases.

When asked about spending cuts for specific programs, solid majorities said there should be no spending cuts in healthcare services for lower income residents (60% - 39%) or mental health services (59% - 39%). The respondents expressed support for at least "some spending cuts" in funding for hospitals (56% - 39%), infrastructure projects (54% - 43%), and state university and community colleges budgets (52% - 46%). Less than 10% support "significant cuts" for any program.

The comprehensive survey also indicated there is little support for GOP-backed proposals limiting workers' collective bargaining rights.

Several states, from Wisconsin to Massachusetts, have sought to curb state spending by limiting the ability of public employees to collectively bargain for benefits. There is little support for this proposal in New Hampshire. Most state residents (66%) think that private sector workers should have the right to form unions and collectively bargain and 62% think that public employees, should have that right.

The Granite State Poll — sponsored by WMUR-TV, and conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center — interviewed 504 New Hampshire adults between April 15 and April 26, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 4.4 percent.

"Don't Spoil N.H. Future for Short-Term Fix"

by: William Tucker

Sun Apr 10, 2011 at 08:38:48 AM EDT

Conservation and environmental leaders from around the state have penned an open letter to the State Senate President identifying numerous programs slated to be reduced or eliminated and imploring the Senate to undo the drastic cuts.

• The proposed elimination of the Well Water Program would result in no consumer protection, and more contamination, of drinking water supplies for thousands of New Hampshire homeowners and businesses.

• Drastic reductions in Limnology Center Programs would result in the state no longer monitoring the water quality of beaches, public pools and in the lakes, rivers and streams.

• Dismantling of the Land and Community Heritage Investment Program through the sweeping of its dedicated fund into the state's general fund.

• The elimination of both the Lakes and Rivers Management Programs would severely undermine the state's ability to protect these natural assets important to our drinking water supplies, recreational opportunities and wildlife habitat.

• The state's three volunteer water-quality monitoring programs are also slated for elimination. ... The resulting data guides the state and municipal health officers with their management and identifies areas that require pollution control and restoration.

• Elimination of the shellfish program would lead to the closure of all commercial and recreational shellfish harvesting in the state.

• Elimination of the radon program would mean homeowners, landlords, businesses and schools would no longer be able to obtain information or assistance in addressing radon contamination. Radon in indoor air is the second leading cause of lung cancer in New Hampshire.
  

New Hampshire has had a long-standing, bipartisan commitment to protecting our water, air and land for future generations. Hunting, fishing, hiking, boating and tourism are essential parts of our state identity, heritage and economy. They depend on a clean and healthy environment.

NH House Says No to Barring Guns from Schools

by: William Tucker

Sat Apr 09, 2011 at 15:53:54 PM EDT

Yesterday afternoon, I had the following text message exchange with my thirteen year old son: 

Him: Schools on lockdown.
Me: Whats up?
Him: Apparently a psychopath is in the school.
Him: According to someone in my homeroom who was just downstairs someone has a gun.

It turns out there wasn't an armed psychopath in the school, just a man exercising his "natural right" to walk by a school full of children with a rifle in one hand, a handgun strapped to his leg, and a belt of ammunition slung over his shoulder.

The man did not violate any New Hampshire state laws. If he had been a psychopath intent on committing mayhem, he would not have been in violation of state law until he pulled the trigger.

The Gun Free School Zones Act is a federal law that prohibits possession of firearms within 1000 feet of a school. The New Hampshire House considers this an unconstitutional intrusion. 240 state representatives voted in favor of HB 125, a bill that would bar the enforcement of federal gun laws on New Hampshire-made weapons.

This is lunacy.

"The House Is Now Controlled by a Dictator and His Henchmen"

by: William Tucker

Thu Apr 07, 2011 at 13:18:20 PM EDT

I have been elected to the General Court for 17 terms. I have never until this year felt such a combative group of people in the House of Representatives. The speaker is very rude to people; the new members are rude. Always before, there was a two-party system. The speaker talked to the other party. That does not happen this year. They say we have the votes, we will do it our way. I continuously read e-mails about the union thugs. Well, I will tell you the thugs were in the General Court.

[T]he House of Representatives is now controlled by a dictator and his henchmen. The kind of man who takes a woman into a room and screams at her so bad he brought her to tears - all because she brought in an amendment to put back some of the programs for the poor and elderly. ... Not allowing a representative of your own party to propose amendments that they believe in certainly lends itself to a dictatorship, in my opinion. "My way or no way" is his motto. He is the speaker of the House, and for that reason I have to respect his position as speaker. However, I could never respect him as a man.

NH House Too Extreme for Gingrich and Union Leader

by: William Tucker

Wed Apr 06, 2011 at 17:14:58 PM EDT

Last week, the New Hampshire House passed HCR 19, a Tea Party-backed resolution asserting the state’s authority to nullify federal laws it deems unconstitutional. Yesterday, the bill that 242 New Hampshire state reps supported was disavowed by Newt Gingrich and a Union Leader editorial.

Newt Gingrich:

“I think Andrew Jackson dealt with that” during the nullification crisis, he said, adding that Lincoln dealt with it in a more profound way a few decades later.

State politicians who think the federal government is acting unconstitutionally can sue the federal government or direct their delegation in Washington to oppose the unconstitutional actions, he said.

“It would strike me as very implausible that states could actually nullify,” he said.

Union Leader:

[T]hey are wrong that the State of New Hampshire can simply declare those actions null and void. If states had that authority, the union would collapse, as every state nullified whatever federal laws it disliked. This question was settled in the 19th century. It should remain there.

Senate Grownups Begin Budget Process

by: William Tucker

Tue Apr 05, 2011 at 22:34:19 PM EDT

Will the State Senate restore the draconian budget cuts to critical services for the mentally ill, at-risk children, and institutions of higher learning proposed by the House? It's too soon to tell -- the GOP does have an overwhelming 19-5 advantage in the chamber. But there are some encouraging signs.

The Senate Finance Committee chairman opened his committee's budget work yesterday by rejecting the House approach of committing to revenue projections and then designing a budget that spends no more.

"This is where I disagree with the speaker," said Chairman Chuck Morse. "You build a budget based on expenses, and then work on revenues in Ways and Means."

Morse, a Republican from Salem, said the work of the Finance Committee is to determine what functions the state needs to fulfill.

"Those things that need to be funded, we fund them," he said.

Morse believes funding for the developmentally disabled -- including family support services, independent living support and other services -- will likely be restored in the Senate budget. He promises to evaluate how the state is delivering mental health services with the goal of also restoring the services for 7,000 adults and children that were cut by the House.

House Republicans Don't Care About Revenue Estimates

by: William Tucker

Mon Apr 04, 2011 at 06:00:00 AM EDT

Buried under coverage of last week's House budget vote and historic State House rally was news of the state's monthly Revenue Report. Friday, the Department of Administrative Services released the report showing March revenue exceeded projections by $5.8 million.

Revenue for FY2011 has been trailing projections, so this is good news. But it has added significance because of the ongoing disagreement between Gov. John Lynch and House Republicans over revenue estimates for Fiscal Years 2012 and 2013.

Lynch’s budget address relied on tax revenues growing from FY11 levels by 3.5% in FY12, and another 3.8% in FY 13. The budget adopted this week by the House assumes just 1% annual growth, resulting [in] $300 million less than the Governor’s forecast. A strong finish for FY11 could convince the New Hampshire Senate to increase revenue projections in the state budget.

Economic projections are an inexact science, and we could have an honest disagreement over how quickly the state's revenues will bounce back from the Great Recession. But let's be clear. This is not an argument over revenue projections. This is a fundamental argument over the role of government and our obligation to provide for public safety, health and social services, and education.

Importantly, in the event that the state collects more revenue in the coming months than the House now anticipates, the Finance Committee has made quite clear that it will not use those funds to mitigate cuts to institutions of higher learning or to critical services for the mentally ill and at-risk children. Rather, the House Finance Committee included an amendment ... to provide “tax and fee relief” ... should “state revenues exceed … adopted revenue estimates.”

So there you have it. House Republicans claim drastic cuts to critical services for the mentally ill, at-risk children, and institutions of higher learning are required because revenue will fall short of Gov. Lynch's estimate. But if they're wrong, they've already identified the taxes and fees that will be cut to ensure revenue doesn't exceed their low-ball estimate.

The intent of House Republicans is clear. Let's hope the Senate is more honest.

GOP Budget Solution: Drop Dead

by: William Tucker

Sun Mar 20, 2011 at 09:34:39 AM EDT

Pickup Patriots has the story:

Now the latest from the hallowed halls of Concord under the extreme right-wing agenda is yet another NH State Rep telling citizens to drop dead — literally! This gem from 12-term State Representative Neal Kurk (R - Weare) during a discussion of legislation addressing the NH Retirement System.

“The problem with the NH Pension System is that people live too long. We’d be better off if we could get them to pick up smoking and they would die younger.”

It would be easy to slough this one off as a misfired attempt at humor. But given the fact that the House had just voted to reduce the the tax on cigarettes -- and the comment came on World Cancer Awareness Day -- it is particularly callous and insensitive.

A Philip Morris study indicated "the cost benefits of smokers' early mortality, together with cigarette-tax revenue, outweighed the economic drawbacks of health-care and other smoking-related costs." We're not surprised to learn tobacco companies use spreadsheets to calculate the economic impact of smokers' deaths. But we're shocked to hear this calculation coming from a representative on the House Finance Committee.

Koch-Funded Organization Writes NH RGGI Legislation

by: William Tucker

Fri Mar 18, 2011 at 06:00:00 AM EDT

The American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC), a conservative advocacy organization funded by the Charles G. Koch Charitable Foundation, is the "big political player you've never heard of."

ALEC drafts model legislation related to its goals of free markets and limited government on issues as wide-ranging as anti-immigration law, tort reform, voter registration and opposition to Net neutrality.

ALEC model legislation is generally not available to non-members, but its template for “State Withdrawal from Regional Climate Initiatives” has been made public. The language made it into resolutions or bills in at least six states -- including New Hampshire House Bill 519, a bill that would repeal the cap-and-trade system established under the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI).

The bill’s lead sponsor, state Rep. Richard Barry (R), looked a bit like a dog caught with the family cat in its mouth when he was asked to explain the language at a public hearing; he nervously said that none of the bill’s sponsors had written this particular section, but stopped short of revealing ALEC as the source of the text. That didn’t sit well with Rep. James Garrity (R), chair of the House Science, Technology, and Energy Committee, who later explained, “Our committee does not feel that editorials belong in laws.” The matter was resolved by dropping the ALEC text, and the amended bill went on to pass the House.

A brief example of the language cut from the ALEC model legislation and pasted into HB 519 follows below the fold.

h/t @pickuppatriots

"There Will Be People in the State Who Will Die"

by: William Tucker

Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 06:00:00 AM EDT

When the House Finance Committee proposed draconian cuts in the state's Health and Human Services budget, Republican Rep. Neal Kurk conceded, "Because we reduce services doesn't mean the people who need those services disappear."

So what happens to our impoverished and infirm?

A New Hampshire state law, which dates back to 1791, explicitly requires towns to provide assistance to indigent residents: "Any person in a town or city who is poor and unable to support himself ... shall be relieved and maintained at the expense of the town or city of residence."

But Republican lawmakers promised to avoid a state-mandated downshifting of costs to towns. So how does the GOP propose to avoid that? CHANGE THE LAW!

[T]owns would no longer be obligated to support anyone who is needy. Rather, they would only have to spend whatever money the city or town appropriates for welfare.

"That could be as little as $1.99, or $0, if towns are feeling hard-pressed," [Elliott Berry, an attorney with New Hampshire Legal Assistance] said.

So I ask again, what happens to our impoverished and infirm?

[Deputy Democratic Leader Mary Jane] Wallner, of Concord, said she has no idea where families would turn if they run out of money for fuel, medications or shelter.

"I wouldn't be surprised if there will be people in the state who will die," she said.

Cross-posted

NH House Cuts Would Decimate Social Safety Net

by: William Tucker

Wed Mar 16, 2011 at 06:00:00 AM EDT

Elaine Grant, NHPR, examines the impact the House Finance Committee's proposed Health and Human Services budget would have on the Granite State's social safety net.

The House Finance Committee has proposed cuts that would decimate the budgets of hospitals, community health centers, mental health centers and other organizations that make up the social safety net.

"We did a quick assessment of how many patients would lose their health care as a result of those reductions, and we estimate that's going to be close to 12,000 patients."

The cuts would be felt keenly in the North Country, where community health centers provide the only primary care in Berlin and Gorham.

And they’ll hurt low-income children in Manchester. In addition to its broad-based cuts, the House Finance Committee has proposed eliminating $75,000 that goes directly to Child Health Services in Manchester. CHS serves 2500 children and teenagers, most of whom live in poverty. ... And that means 500 to 800 kids would lose their medical care.

CACR 6 Threatens State's Long-term Fiscal Health

by: William Tucker

Mon Mar 14, 2011 at 06:00:00 AM EDT

CACR 6 proposes to amend the state's constitution to require a three-fifths vote in both chambers of the legislature to impose new or increased taxes or license fees.

The New Hampshire Fiscal Policy Institute details why this would be unsound fiscal policy and how it would threaten the state's long-term fiscal health.

[S]tate budget deficits tend to emerge during economic downturns .... Erecting procedural barriers to tax increases ... means that policymakers would either have to enact deeper spending cuts than would otherwise be the case or would have to rely upon short-sighted accounting gimmicks to bring revenue and expenditures into balance.

A supermajority requirement would cede control over any number of important priorities to a minority of the legislature. ... [T]hey could also delay or halt consideration of other critical legislation ... for concessions on other, potentially unrelated issues.

That Was The Week That Was: February 6 - 12, 2011

by: William Tucker

Sun Feb 13, 2011 at 12:11:53 PM EST

In a textbook case of Orwellian  blackwhite, House Majority Leader D.J. Bettencourt (R-Salem) reads a survey indicating 65% favor a mix of spending cuts and taxes to close the budget shortfall and responds, "What is most encouraging was the majority of those polled see that spending cuts are the best way to balance the budget, rather than new taxes."

With New Hampshire facing revenue shortfalls estimated between $600 million and $900 million, House Speaker Bill O'Brien testifies in favor of a constitutional amendment prohibiting an income tax. "I want to make sure we do not have available to us a new and large revenue source," he explained.

Focused Like A Laser: Bring Back Epidemics

by: William Tucker

Mon Jan 31, 2011 at 14:36:51 PM EST

Two bills making their way through the New Hampshire House seek to limit childhood immunizations.

HB 416 would allow parents to become conscientious objectors in the war against childhood disease. Their children would then be exempt from state mandated immunizations. This bill will have its public hearing in the Children and Family Law committee.

HB 422 would forbid vaccinations -- including flu vaccinations -- from being offered by public schools, on school property, and by school personnel. This bill will have its public hearing in the Education Committee.

Why would anyone object to schools offering a voluntary flu vaccination, you ask?" 

[I]f we go by what has happened in other states that have allowed these clinics in the public schools, it will eventually lead to all the vaccines.

The CDC has a succinct explanation for why we vaccinate.

So what would happen if we stopped vaccinating here? Diseases that are almost unknown would stage a comeback. Before long we would see epidemics of diseases that are nearly under control today. More children would get sick and more would die.

Cross-posted to Miscellany Blue

Better Living Through Activist Government

by: William Tucker

Fri Dec 03, 2010 at 22:41:52 PM EST

New Hampshire is one of the nation's leaders in reducing high school dropout rates and increasing graduation rates, concludes a national study from Johns Hopkins University's Everyone Graduates Center.

"Building a Grad Nation: Progress and Challenge in Ending the High School Dropout Epidemic," cites the increase in the Granite State's graduation rate from 77.8% in 2002 to 83.4% in 2008. New Hampshire ranked 7th in the nation in reducing dropout rates.

How did we do it? Hilary Niles explains.

Forecasting the NH State House Election - Postscript

by: William Tucker

Sat Nov 06, 2010 at 17:47:25 PM EDT

My statistical model projecting Republicans would win 273 seats in the New Hampshire State House captured the impact of the GOP wave, though slightly underestimating the magnitude. Still, it was more accurate than most of the pundits who get paid for this sort of thing, including Fahey (210-220), DiStaso (226) and Landrigan (230). Only Pindell was closer with his prediction of 290 Republican seats and 27 tossups.

The model was based on the projected national congressional vote without regard to local candidates. In my mind, the results validate the approach and provide valuable insight to understanding electoral fundamentals. But this could lead one to then ask, do campaigns matter? And I say, you need only consider the 72,000 vote differential between John Lynch and Paul Hodes to conclude campaigns and candidates and issues matter -- a lot.

Geeky detail below the fold.

Forecasting the NH State House Election - Part 1

by: William Tucker

Sat Oct 09, 2010 at 10:49:25 AM EDT

To better understand Granite State voting behavior, Judy Stadtman and I have compiled town-level New Hampshire voting data from each statewide election since 2000. One of the exercises in that analysis was to calculate and document the Partisan Voting Index for each of the state's 103 State House districts. That data has now become the basis for a model to forecast the results of the upcoming State House of Representatives election.

At a high level, the model is based on a strong correlation between the national partisan vote and results in New Hampshire House elections. I begin with the projected national two-party vote, adjust it for each House district based on the district PVI, and determine the probability of a partisan outcome for each seat. I then run 100,000 simulations of the outcome for each seat to project the total number of seats for each party.

In this post, I'll detail the methodology (warning: geek alert!) and test the model by retroactively applying it to the 2004, 2006 and 2008 House elections. Part 2 will follow with my fearless forecast.